Ian Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 We should be able to pull off 3 days in D.C... 00z MEX guidance (sun-wed: DCA - 88, 96, 94, 92 IAD - 89, 97, 96, 91 BWI - 88, 95, 95, 91 JYO - 92, 98, 98, 93 NAM is being NAM'y and only getting to near 90 Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 no heat wave here right now. We have had training showers for about 3 hours today. farmers over here are lovin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 12z MEX (sun-wed) -- mmm, toasty DCA - 89, 96, 99, 96 IAD - 89, 97, 100, 97 BWI - 89, 97, 101, 93 JYO - 92, 99, 101, 99 DC has never hit 100 in May (99 would tie highest for may)... not sure about the others, but can look later if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Records (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday) DCA: 98, 99, 97 BWI: 98, 96, 97 IAD: 95, 94, 93 Dulles looks vulnerable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 1st 100 at DCA/BWI is June 5th, but it is an 86 year old record.....surprised it hasn't fallen yet.....maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Analog 1991-05-25 93.070.0 1991-05-26 93.074.0 1991-05-27 92.075.0 1991-05-28 92.075.0 1991-05-29 97.074.0 1991-05-30 98.074.0 1991-05-31 99.078.0 1991-06-01 93.074.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 12z MEX (sun-wed) -- mmm, toasty DCA - 89, 96, 99, 96 IAD - 89, 97, 100, 97 BWI - 89, 97, 101, 93 JYO - 92, 99, 101, 99 DC has never hit 100 in May (99 would tie highest for may)... not sure about the others, but can look later if needed. Barf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I hate summer. Though sitting at Target Field in 51 and damp conditions last night wasn't great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 LWX seems to like the NAM.. Low 90s on Monday. Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 LWX seems to like the NAM.. Low 90s on Monday. Weak. climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 climo yeah but middle ground is mid-90s conservatively, at least per nam/gfs. upper ridge is pretty beastly... 18z nam has a phantom mcs dropping through on monday from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 nam still dropping showers/storms thru tomorrow under the upper ridge. not sure i buy it but it's been rather steady. keeps temps in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 tho now actually tracking it back and into current period, it seems to be the 'derecho' shortwave even tho the nam doesnt really have the oingoing derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 tho now actually tracking it back and into current period, it seems to be the 'derecho' shortwave even tho the nam doesnt really have the oingoing derecho. Yay for phantom derechos LWX went mid 90s for Monday and tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yay for phantom derechos it's intriguing but im not sure it makes sense the storms would cut into the upper high like that. however those complexes do like to curve southeast over time and the axis of the ridge is to our west, so who knows. i'd lean against it for now, but not as much as yesterday perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 GFS is having none of the NAM... showdown continues. DCA for tomorrow... NAM = 87; GFS = 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 82 with a dewpt in the mid-70s right now at the house in Bmore. Woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 146 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>040-042-050>057- 501-502-300200- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.110530T1600Z-110601T0000Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 146 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S. COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100. TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY TOPPING 100. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 this could end up being 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 this could end up being 5 days 12z MEX has low-to-mid 90s thru Sat, then 89 on Sun. Will have to watch the mcs/derecho out west. NMM seems to show maybe a remnant boundary from it touching stuff off tomorrow. Have not looked at cap/convective temps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 12z MEX has low-to-mid 90s thru Sat, then 89 on Sun. Will have to watch the mcs/derecho out west. NMM seems to show maybe a remnant boundary from it touching stuff off tomorrow. Have not looked at cap/convective temps etc. there could be a lot of busts.....and the days could be wrong.....maybe the best temps are Wed/Thu....hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 When was the last time a heatwave underperformed? GFS trending hotter in the LR with the 21C 850s hanging around the Mid Atlantic through June 9-10, not that it means anything, but it's trended warmer each run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 DCA at 76 lagging the rest of the area with S winds.....BWI already 82/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Frederick up to 88 with heat index of 95 at 9:30am Just before 10, its 90 at Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 12z RUC extremely muggy for 0z today, 75-80 dew points here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 12z RUC extremely muggy for 0z today, 75-80 dew points here. RUC overdoes the dewpoints. Take 'em down by 3-5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Heat waves are no fun when your a/c is on the fritz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 93 Frederick 91 Downtown Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 11am 93 Frederick 92 Downtown Baltimore 90 BWI 88 DCA 87 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 does look like some remnant boundary from the mcs did pass through -- or something. a few brief showers rolled south last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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