SnowGoose69 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wonder if they will put up a red box? they mention the T word firmly. Generally in this part of the country when there is any chance for tornadoes they put out a tornado watch....more marginal setups in the plains sometimes only get a severe thunderstorm watch with stronger wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 What does that mean when the CAPE goes up to 5,000-6,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yes It's is a red MD box. And the EHI numbers are very high for this region. So I agree it will probably be tornado watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Another shot of the storm near Albany. Leading the way right now..and it's isolated in an environment that's becoming highly unstable with the RUC this afternoon indicative of favorable low level backing winds and impressive 0-1km SRH and EHI numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 What does that mean when the CAPE goes up to 5,000-6,000? the atmosphere is loaded up with potential energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Red box 596 WWUS30 KWNS 011655 SAW1 SPC AWW 011655 WW 411 TORNADO CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI CW 011700Z - 020000Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 10SSW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/ - 35NW AUG/AUGUSTA ME/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /42W CYN - 62W BGR/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035. LAT...LON 39727673 44667183 44666877 39727391 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.110601T1700Z-110602T0000Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0411.110601T1700Z-110602T0000Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm impressed by the strength of the cap - its one thing not to see any congestus, but there isn't a cloud in the sky. Doesn't seem like fears of too-soon initiation were justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 But wouldn't a good CAP shut down the severe weather potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 But wouldn't a good CAP shut down the severe weather potential? The EML effectively holds the cap until the CAPE is maximized and convective initiation can begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSETTS WESTERN MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA MAINE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NY/PA AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NY/PA/NJ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 But wouldn't a good CAP shut down the severe weather potential? In a set-up like this, ESPECIALLY on the east coast, we need as strong a cap as possible in order to get any true supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The EML effectively holds the cap until the CAPE is maximized and convective initiation can begin Well then it seems the CAPE is near maximum levels, I can't see it getting higher than it is now, I know values above 3,000 produce high instability but I never seen them this high around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 In a set-up like this, ESPECIALLY on the east coast, we need as strong a cap as possible in order to get any true supercells That's interesting since all I ever heard or read about is how a strong CAP tends to literally put a cap on severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 In a set-up like this, ESPECIALLY on the east coast, we need as strong a cap as possible in order to get any true supercells you need just enough capping to hold off convection until initiation during peak heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF They left Suffolk County out of it. They always leave Suffolk County out of the Watch. I live in the Western half of Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 you need just enough capping to hold off convection until initiation during peak heating Also, lift is on the way if things need a nudge. And the cap helps keep the storms discrete. I'd trade my chances at a squall line for a stronger cap and a few isolated bigguns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 surfaced based cape is near 5500j/kg in Western New Jersey right now. Effective bulk shear has increased to around 30 kts. Mid level lapse rates are still greater than 8 at the moment. Highly unstable environment right now...one of the more highly unstable environments you will see in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice storm in Eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 surfaced based cape is near 5500j/kg in Western New Jersey right now. Effective bulk shear has increased to around 30 kts. Mid level lapse rates are still greater than 8 at the moment. Highly unstable environment right now...one of the more highly unstable environments you will see in this part of the country. SB lift index now around -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 EHI values are very impressive right now amidst the high instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 They left Suffolk County out of it. They always leave Suffolk County out of the Watch. I live in the Western half of Suffolk County. Blame the sw wind off the water for creating a more stable environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 surfaced based cape is near 5500j/kg in Western New Jersey right now. Effective bulk shear has increased to around 30 kts. Mid level lapse rates are still greater than 8 at the moment. Highly unstable environment right now...one of the more highly unstable environments you will see in this part of the country. How much instability is there for the Western half of LI right now meaning around Islip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Interesting that the two storms on the north side of the PA line just went poof. Did the bottom storm steal their inflow? I would've thought that once storms initiated back with the trough in PA, they'd maintain themselves pretty healthy as they moved into our delicious potential energy rich stew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 87/74 in the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That's interesting since all I ever heard or read about is how a strong CAP tends to literally put a cap on severe potential. In our part of the country a weak cap with strong instability leads to linear low-end severe action, what is happening today is similar to tornado alley, the stronger cap will allow storms to pop like mushrooms over the next few hours; to make things simple, those are the ones that can sustain updrafts because they have little competition from surrounding convection, and it is the cap that limits surrounding convection...thus you get supercells, less coverage but more intense rotating cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 87/74 in the park Yeah...it's really roasting out there right now. Newark is at 90 with a heat index of 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 surfaced based cape is near 5500j/kg in Western New Jersey right now. Effective bulk shear has increased to around 30 kts. Mid level lapse rates are still greater than 8 at the moment. Highly unstable environment right now...one of the more highly unstable environments you will see in this part of the country. from what u just said can u see the storms being stronger than expected with cape getting close to 6000? . this atmosphere is like a timebomb right now, i have a feeling when these storms fire up it wont be long at all that they turn tornadic or atleast produce strong rotation, looks like today may deliver as a big severe weather outbreak that we'll remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Anyone think that this might will be similiar to the severe storms of last September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 looks like the cell over NE PA is chocking itself out. Updraft is moving over a previously rain cooled area. It might be trying to reorganize back to the west, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.