weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Before 20z in northern NJ, these issues are not present. There is going to be a window here for supercells from western New England into S NY, N NJ and NE PA during the early-mid afternoon I think. Yeah i think there will be a window as well...just how long? My thinking is the convective mode early one will be supercells but then they may try to form into a squall line...or actually even a broken or just a line of supercells...but something like this is relatively rare in these parts. We also have to watch those sfc winds and the winds in the lowest 2-3km...if they back more, especially in the Valleys that would further increase the low-level helicity and with the low level flow increasing to over 25 knots that could be pretty significant. Not too often we actually see a low-level flow around 25-30 knots in a situation like this, usually it's closer to 15 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would really prefer for things to go through during the 19z to 23z period...I feel as if that period has the best combination of higher instability to go along with the stronger shear values and helicity is maximized (at least this way). This is also when the GFS/NAM start showing the mid-level front/pre-frontal trough working through and when the drying aloft occurs. SPC makes mention of little cap tomorrow (or it might be one of the AFD's I read) but I would really prefer some cap until at least 17z or so so we can materialize sufficient heating. It is a tough one here. On the one hand, an earlier initiation would allow the region to be inline for the more discrete potential and have a lesser potential for anvil/outflow contamination downstream. On the other hand, having something develop upstream of your area is always more comforting. I could see supercells congeal into a line from E NY / W MA into CT-NYC-NJ. It is all about the timing, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It is a tough one here. On the one hand, an earlier initiation would allow the region to be inline for the more discrete potential and have a lesser potential for anvil/outflow contamination downstream. On the other hand, having something develop upstream of your area is always more comforting. I could see supercells congeal into a line from E NY / W MA into CT-NYC-NJ. It is all about the timing, as usual. One event I always try to keep in mind when dealing with something like this, even though the entire synoptic setup isn't the same, is June 5th, 2008. The pre-frontal trough became very active and we saw a good deal of supercells develop out ahead of it...parts of CT got rocked pretty good. There actually was just enough energy left too for a squall line ahead of the front but that affected northern areas more. One thing I've always liked with pre-frontal troughs is I've noticed when the low-level flow is approaching 30 knots (especially if more) winds have a better tendency to back around the pre-frontal trough much more...especially when sfc winds are ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If the storms do develop to our west-northwest they should have no problem getting to the coast. If they the storms go into the SW to NE direction they usually screw the eastern sections of the area. One other concern I have remember a week ago that the storms never develop or only just few isolated showers and thunderstorms developed and they were pulse type that weaken because the capped was never broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 WRF has nothing going through NYC AT ALL. A line forms after it passes NYC then moves out to sea. Typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 WRF has nothing going through NYC AT ALL. A line forms after it passes NYC then moves out to sea. Typical easy there bud. that same model had an mcs dying as it approached a couple nights ago, and it actually got stronger and smashed thru the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 WRF has nothing going through NYC AT ALL. A line forms after it passes NYC then moves out to sea. Typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 easy there bud. that same model had an mcs dying as it approached a couple nights ago, and it actually got stronger and smashed thru the area. Hm, the WRF was supposed to have a good track record but I've noticed it's been doing not so good in the last year or so. Sure, thanks. You got any mustard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hm, the WRF was supposed to have a good track record but I've noticed it's been doing not so good in the last year or so. Sure, thanks. You got any mustard? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice action upstate. That must be fun to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Let the games begin....30% risk for wind. Hail threat should be 30% also in my opinion. Lapse rates are already very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I thought it would be good to have a seperate thread for observations and a clean slate since the other thread has alot of other stuff mixed in. The city couldn't be anymore centered within the 30% risk zone, is there ever a time where you will not downplay a severe threat for the city? Setup looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 numerous hail reports coming out of that line in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This is still looking very impressive across the region, could be one of the more classic outbreaks with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Are the Storms in NW PA our storms for later this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 well that was quick, watches already posted to our north and west until 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Makes sense, those storms in PA look pretty potent. That line is moving mostly due east however and would stay to our north for the most part. well that was quick, watches already posted to our north and west until 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Makes sense, those storms in PA look pretty potent. That line is moving mostly due east however and would stay to our north for the most part. I don't think that line is the one we will need to watch, I expect more activity to fire closer to the area. The SBCAPE is already through the roof. I'm awfully suprised that this topic has not gotten more attention this morning, things look about as good as they get for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 RUC KEWR 22Z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I don't think that line is the one we will need to watch, I expect more activity to fire closer to the area. The SBCAPE is already through the roof. I'm awfully suprised that this topic has not gotten more attention this morning, things look about as good as they get for this area. you do realize that line represents the trough that is likely going to swing through ahead of the front which has a great chance of destroying the setup today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 you do realize that line represents the trough that is likely going to swing through ahead of the front which has a great chance of destroying the setup today? Even if it is, that line is a long way off. We shall see what happens. Instability is already quite high out ahead of it and we may have to settle for a squall line rather than supercells. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Very impressive elevated instability axis in juxtaposition with moderate effective bulk shear. This is likely going to be a big day across the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 1400z mid level lapse rates are over 8 throughout much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Lifted index around -9 across the area, SB cape now building in excess of 5,000 over PA. Only ingredient that is lacking in good shear. This should build throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 The RUC is actually a bit concerning if you were to asked me with backed winds and a surprisingly impressive degree of 0-1km SRH and EHI values. Given the EML in place and the moderate to high instability already building (5000j/kg of SBCAPE over Central PA building northeast)...I would not be surprised at this point to see a few discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The RUC is actually a bit concerning if you were to asked me with backed winds and a surprisingly impressive degree of 0-1km SRH and EHI values. Given the EML in place and the moderate to high instability already building (5000j/kg of SBCAPE over Central PA building northeast)...I would not be surprised at this point to see a few discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong. Could not agree more, I definitly think a moderate risk would be warranted at this point, if nothing else for 45% wind probs. I think alot of people are going to be caught off guard with this one. I have to give credit to Mr. G this morning, who was not shy in mentioning that the storms could be strong to severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe T Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Could not agree more, I definitly think a moderate risk would be warranted at this point, if nothing else for 45% wind probs. I think alot of people are going to be cut off guard with this one. I have to give credit to Mr. G this morning, who was not shy in mentioning that the storms could be strong to severe. Would not be surprised if the next SPC convective outlook has a small Moderate Risk area. These numbers are downright impressive and it is only 15z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton increased their POP from 30/40% up to 60% even for LI Would not be surprised if the next SPC convective outlook has a small Moderate Risk area. These numbers are downright impressive and it is only 15z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The RUC is actually a bit concerning if you were to asked me with backed winds and a surprisingly impressive degree of 0-1km SRH and EHI values. Given the EML in place and the moderate to high instability already building (5000j/kg of SBCAPE over Central PA building northeast)...I would not be surprised at this point to see a few discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong. We get supercells up here? Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 We get supercells up here? Really?? Yes, of course they are rare and usually not full blown supercell structures like you see out in the mid-west, but the storm that produced the tornado last year in NYC was a supercell. Albeit it was quite small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.