HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So what your saying is that away from the coastal areas severe weather is likely but near or on the coast there is still the possibility of this being a case where the storms die when they hit the marine air correct? I'm still trying to grasp the severe weather parameters for our area I am not saying that. I am just giving pros and cons for tomorrow. My personal thoughts are that we get a mod risk from E PA to western New England and a couple of areas develop. Something will get a cold pool going in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow and the dynamics will get New England to PA going. There is usually a screw zone in between but I think that NYC will be included in the northern stuff. If it has enough momentum, it could even include all of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 So what your saying is that away from the coastal areas severe weather is likely but near or on the coast there is still the possibility of this being a case where the storms die when they hit the marine air correct? Not exactly sure how you draw that from his post that you quoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 The new SREF ensemble means are very impressive with the EML presence around mid-day tomorrow with a 90% chance of 700-500mb lapse rate of 7.0 or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Not exactly sure how you draw that from his post that you quoted Yeaaa after I posted that I was like wtf oops lol.....I'm just trying to educate myself better as a weather enthusiast, sorry if it came off as stupid I'm just trying to atleast make sense of the topics you and hm were talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 On a semi-related, long term note, this pattern will continue to produce as we hang out along the NE periphery of deep and highly mobile heat ridge. These are the best and the EML's will be enhanced by the southern Plains' drought. Overall, a very stormy June on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So what your saying is that away from the coastal areas severe weather is likely but near or on the coast there is still the possibility of this being a case where the storms die when they hit the marine air correct? I'm still trying to grasp the severe weather parameters for our area I will be happy at least get a decent thunderstorm on Long Island oppose to a general crappy rain shower when everybody else to the west gets all the fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeaaa after I posted that I was like wtf oops lol.....I'm just trying to educate myself better as a weather enthusiast, sorry if it came off as stupid I'm just trying to atleast make sense of the topics you and hm were talking about It's all good man; no worries. I knew what you were getting at. I hope it helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think this event has a lot of potential. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado threat develop somewhere... W CT/W MA/SE NY? where the best shear/instability combo exists along with some fairly strong forcing by 21z. Watch out for areas where winds can remained backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It's all good man; no worries. I knew what you were getting at. I hope it helped. Yea thanks hm I'm new to the weather scene well the forecasting aspect of it and what models/maps to use and understand to accurately forecast a severe weather threat that you were talking about with tommorow's event, my biggest problem I'm having in learning is where to find the maps some of you forecasters post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If the storms hold together from NW to SE in a big cluster they usually hold together when they make it to the coast especially if there is no marine influence. I hope that is the case tomorrow that the storms will go in from NW to SE competent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 There is usually a screw zone in between but I think that NYC will be included in the northern stuff. If it has enough momentum, it could even include all of Long Island. Like central Jersey right? I'm sure you know as well as I do living around these parts, we aren't exactly the T-storm capital of the state. I joke often about there being an invisible force field protecting Monmouth County from strong to severe storms. Whether its the marine layer, a line splitting into two parts going north and south of us, or storms just plain dying on our doorstep, we don't have much luck in that department. But as usual w/ severe threats it will be a nowcast situation, in terms of which areas are at highest risk for being in the path of bows/clusters etc. I agree w/ you regarding June. Was looking at the LR GFS and thought similarly wrt the Northeast being in a favorable position on the periphery of the heat ridge. I think we'll see a very warm June w/ plenty of T-storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Like central Jersey right? I'm sure you know as well as I do living around these parts, we aren't exactly the T-storm capital of the state. I joke often about there being an invisible force field protecting Monmouth County from strong to severe storms. Whether its the marine layer, a line splitting into two parts going north and south of us, or storms just plain dying on our doorstep, we don't have much luck in that department. But as usual w/ severe threats it will be a nowcast situation, in terms of which areas are at highest risk for being in the path of bows/clusters etc. I agree w/ you regarding June. Was looking at the LR GFS and thought similarly wrt the Northeast being in a favorable position on the periphery of the heat ridge. I think we'll see a very warm June w/ plenty of T-storm chances. I am glad that you and me are on the same page with June. I agree that it will be above normal with frequent t-storm episodes. The big question is where does the low anomaly ultimately develop for July. But anyway, yeah there is going to be a screw zone somewhere in between. However, if the 18z NAM is right, the morning activity will be the impetus for renewed convection midday-afternoon through the Mid Atlantic and the screw zone is NYC. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I am glad that you and me are on the same page with June. I agree that it will be above normal with frequent t-storm episodes. The big question is where does the low anomaly ultimately develop for July. But anyway, yeah there is going to be a screw zone somewhere in between. However, if the 18z NAM is right, the morning activity will be the impetus for renewed convection midday-afternoon through the Mid Atlantic and the screw zone is NYC. lol I could see a NYC/N NJ screw zone with some heavy storms PA/S NJ and up north in the Hudson Valley and New England. I think north of NYC and into W MA/W CT there is a fairly interesting supercell threat if storms can remain discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Agreed on the long range potential through June. Most global models and ensemble means have the ridge continuing to pulsate over the Central United States and towards the Eastern US while the pattern remains extremely active over Central and Southeast Canada. A very good setup for an active few weeks with severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I could see a NYC/N NJ screw zone with some heavy storms PA/S NJ and up north in the Hudson Valley and New England. I think north of NYC and into W MA/W CT there is a fairly interesting supercell threat if storms can remain discrete. I agree. I want to get the 00z data in and see how this evening's MCS activity goes down in the morning, but I think the conditions will become favorable for supercells. Very confusing setup possibly tomorrow morning if the 18z NAM is right. It is things like the 18z NAM solution that can ruin a good setup further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I agree. I want to get the 00z data in and see how this evening's MCS activity goes down in the morning, but I think the conditions will become favorable for supercells. Very confusing setup possibly tomorrow morning if the 18z NAM is right. It is things like the 18z NAM solution that can ruin a good setup further north. 18z NAM BUFKIT soundings for BDL are about as impressive as it gets. The CAPE/Shear combination is very impressive including low level helicity. Granted the NAM is way too high with boundary layer dew points... but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT soundings for BDL are about as impressive as it gets. The CAPE/Shear combination is very impressive including low level helicity. Granted the NAM is way too high with boundary layer dew points... but still.... That's good to know; I only saw the 12z bufkits and was impressed. I suppose my worry was the NJ-MD convection's outflow ruining development in the Hudson Valley. It's no big deal at this point because it seems like an erroneous 18z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 That's good to know; I only saw the 12z bufkits and was impressed. I suppose my worry was the NJ-MD convection's outflow ruining development in the Hudson Valley. It's no big deal at this point because it seems like an erroneous 18z solution. I think a couple things that could cause problems would be excessive debris cloudiness tomorrow morning, winds veering too early behind pre frontal trough dropping dew points too fast, or the extremely dry air moving in aloft causes some problems with the updrafts with excessive dry air entrainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 the extremely dry air moving in aloft causes some problems with the updrafts with excessive dry air entrainment. I remember an event a few years back where we had this exact problem--we knew we were up sh**'s creek without a paddle when the winds turned west and everything was drying out before the real convection could get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think a couple things that could cause problems would be excessive debris cloudiness tomorrow morning, winds veering too early behind pre frontal trough dropping dew points too fast, or the extremely dry air moving in aloft causes some problems with the updrafts with excessive dry air entrainment. All good points man; I agree. Also, as I mentioned before, the general anticyclonic shear/NVA, synoptically, could be an inhibitor. Although, if we do have morning debris/leftover convection, this would actually aid in getting it the heck out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Interestingly there are big storms in Michigan but the line within the watch box in illinois/ indiana died out...not saying this necessarily means anything for our area tomorrow..just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 RUC KLGA 15Z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Feeling this is going to be primarily north of the City into NW CT maybe down into the Brookfield/New Milford/Danbury area. Think the biggest problem will be the DP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Feeling this is going to be primarily north of the City into NW CT maybe down into the Brookfield/New Milford/Danbury area. Think the biggest problem will be the DP's. water loading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Feeling this is going to be primarily north of the City into NW CT maybe down into the Brookfield/New Milford/Danbury area. Think the biggest problem will be the DP's. Not sure what you're getting at...the dew points are going to be in the mid 70s in spots; and less father north. You thinking the guidance is overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Not sure what you're getting at...the dew points are going to be in the mid 70s in spots; and less father north. You thinking the guidance is overdone? Sorry, I was agreeing with CTRain, should have clarified. Worried dry air is going to rush in before things can pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 On a semi-related, long term note, this pattern will continue to produce as we hang out along the NE periphery of deep and highly mobile heat ridge. These are the best and the EML's will be enhanced by the southern Plains' drought. Overall, a very stormy June on the way. You've been all over the month of June for sure..And from your mouth to God's ears we have our first legitimate outbreak threatening on June 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Only potential problems are the system possibly moving through to early (Before Noon) Or H8 and H7 may cool off before H5 and ruin the good Lapse rates. This is stll a pretty good setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I could see a NYC/N NJ screw zone with some heavy storms PA/S NJ and up north in the Hudson Valley and New England. I think north of NYC and into W MA/W CT there is a fairly interesting supercell threat if storms can remain discrete. LI better not be the screw zone or I will move out if I had money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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