Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Potential significant severe weather Wednesday


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 562
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well I was lucky enough to have that cell pop up to my west in northern Monmouth 30 mins ago. Received some 40 mph wind gusts and sporadic pea to dime sized hail...I noticed maybe 3 random bigger stones as well, one bounced off my neighbors lawn, another hit my car and made a loud ping lol.

It looks like the Manalapan.areas of central/western monmouth may have received severe hail looking at how the radar pulsed up.

Another tornado being reported in Westfield mass right now! That is their second of the day!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I was lucky enough to have that cell pop up to my west in northern Monmouth 30 mins ago. Received some 40 mph wind gusts and sporadic pea to dime sized hail...I noticed maybe 3 random bigger stones as well, one bounced off my neighbors lawn, another hit my car and made a loud ping lol.

It looks like the Manalapan.areas of central/western monmouth may have received severe hail looking at how the radar pulsed up.

Another tornado being reported in Westfield mass right now! That is their second of the day!!

Apparently I was unlucky as I missed a quarter-golf ball hail core by 2 miles lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not enough shear/forcing seems to have been the culprit. The EML is awesome but that cap can really keep things isolated without the needed forcing. Just had a second little storm roll through here with rain and small hail.

I also can confirm large hail from my friends about 2+ miles to my south. Sounded like 1-1.5" to me as they said "it wasnt as big as golf balls, but the largest theyve ever seen". Perhaps further south towards colts neck did see up to golf balls though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got screwed big time. Just had a few rain drops that was it. Guess what storms develop to my east. Eastern LI got some good storms. I don't get why Eastern LI got into the fun. Central LI to the city and good part of Northern NJ were the screw zones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty amazing 0-1km SRH and SBCAPE out there (23z) yielding stealthy 0-1km EHI. What a waste of good helicity and CAPE.

What went wrong today and why did good part of the area got area screwed? When the storms did formed they were pulsey and kept weakening. When is the next chance for thunderstorms? To be honest I do not welcome the cool dry air and possibly having a good period of boring weather in the next week with no thunderstorm chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What went wrong today and why did good part of the area got area screwed? When the storms did formed they were pulsey and kept weakening. When is the next chance for thunderstorms? To be honest I do not welcome the cool dry air and possibly having a good period of boring weather in the next week with no thunderstorm chances.

Premature ejaculation, essentially. Storms ignited under the -12c pocket along the prefrontal trough when shear was pretty weak south of the Hudson Valley. The extreme instability and weak shear environment produced classic pulsers and brief supercell-like structures with large hail. The front/wind/dynamics have arrived now with decent instability in place. However, the atmosphere is contaminated from the first round's anvils. A lack of exhaust allowed anvils to hang around, aiding in the pulsing nature. We were not in a favorable jet placement down here and received anticyclonic shear during the time when storms initiated.

As usual, bad timing...I have never seen a supercell composite so high in NJ before. Widespread 20's for our area at 00z!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Premature ejaculation, essentially. Storms ignited under the -12c pocket along the prefrontal trough when shear was pretty weak south of the Hudson Valley. The extreme instability and weak shear environment produced classic pulsers and brief supercell-like structures with large hail. The front/wind/dynamics have arrived now with decent instability in place. However, the atmosphere is contaminated from the first round's anvils. A lack of exhaust allowed anvils to hang around, aiding in the pulsing nature. We were not in a favorable jet placement down here and received anticyclonic shear during the time when storms initiated.

As usual, bad timing...I have never seen a supercell composite so high in NJ before. Widespread 20's for our area at 00z!

Yeah...seeing the pulsing storms go up as early as they did really irked me, especially given the fact that the 0-6km bulk shear was essentially trailing well behind them. The prefrontal trough was one of the main concerns with this setup..and it did come back to get us in the end. Maybe not the way people had thought it would...I think the general assumption was that it would blow through and turn winds westerly with no convection. Also, the mid level temps warmed after around 17-18z which was definitely inhibiting better updraft development.

The timing was just barely off..and it's a bummer we didn't get to see some better structures down this way given the highly unstable environment we had to work with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Premature ejaculation, essentially. Storms ignited under the -12c pocket along the prefrontal trough when shear was pretty weak south of the Hudson Valley. The extreme instability and weak shear environment produced classic pulsers and brief supercell-like structures with large hail. The front/wind/dynamics have arrived now with decent instability in place. However, the atmosphere is contaminated from the first round's anvils. A lack of exhaust allowed anvils to hang around, aiding in the pulsing nature. We were not in a favorable jet placement down here and received anticyclonic shear during the time when storms initiated.

As usual, bad timing...I have never seen a supercell composite so high in NJ before. Widespread 20's for our area at 00z!

Thanks that makes sense but also how come the storms blew up over Eastern LI where the marine layer is stronger over there and less instability.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks that makes sense but also how come the storms blew up over Eastern LI where the marine layer is stronger over there and less instability.

The best mid level lapse rates/cool air aloft were exiting east this afternoon and they were the reason for convective initiation, along with the prefrontal trough. They were just lucky enough to see these dynamics favoring growth. It was still quite randomized and was aided by the Monmouth activity in NJ.

This bust hurts just as bad as last year's June 6th bust. This time of year always sees a great combination of instability and shear for us and it hurts when they go to waste. However, in 1998, that wasn't the case. This year certainly panned out north of us. The pattern in the future still looks good for additional threats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah...seeing the pulsing storms go up as early as they did really irked me, especially given the fact that the 0-6km bulk shear was essentially trailing well behind them. The prefrontal trough was one of the main concerns with this setup..and it did come back to get us in the end. Maybe not the way people had thought it would...I think the general assumption was that it would blow through and turn winds westerly with no convection. Also, the mid level temps warmed after around 17-18z which was definitely inhibiting better updraft development.

The timing was just barely off..and it's a bummer we didn't get to see some better structures down this way given the highly unstable environment we had to work with.

Yeah, you and a few others were on this and it certainly ruined the threat down here. I think the overall ideas from yesterday were good though and I am glad we were harping on the tornado threat from NE PA to New England. It just seemed way too classic yesterday with the EML and forecast soundings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...