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Potential significant severe weather Wednesday


earthlight

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Impressive warned cell slated for Mercer County. Looks to be on track for my area in Monmouth.

Mmm boy, the northern Mercer cell is dying, hopefully something pops on its outflow boundary. The severe warned cell in SW Monmouth will probably miss to my south if it doesn't extend nwd.

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oh well.. bummer.. it seems like our best convection is surprise stuff that nobody predicts.. when we get overhyped warnings, it doesn't seem to work out for us alot... just goes to show how important the lifting mechanism is.. so much moisture and instability to work with.

so are officially calling this one a bust? atleast for our area?

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Instability is dropping like a rock, and look at that CIN that has increased over NE NJ and points east, stick a fork in this one. Very dissapointing considering we had a day 5 outlook on this.

I wouldn't call it off yet, but I made a post last night on the severe reports in the Lakes region being unimpressive outside of central/northern Michigan, which did translate due eastward to C/NNE. Seems like their problem was not enough forcing for the CAP to break, much like for our area southward. We're too far removed from the best lifting and wind shear.

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well.. I wouldn't say that entirely.. look at all that tornadic stuff in the city the past few years.. I think we've had some good stuff. I think it's just painful when there is a lot of hype and nothing happens.

its not good for SPC or Upton, people will be more complacent for the next watch.

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impressive to get something to go through downtown sprinfield in that valley because of the mountains to the west. Generally the best stuff comes down the valley and not west to east.

Amazing how the tornadoes this year have had such a tendency to hit populated areas. First Tuscaloosa, then Joplin, and now Springfield.

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oh well.. bummer.. it seems like our best convection is surprise stuff that nobody predicts.. when we get overhyped warnings, it doesn't seem to work out for us alot... just goes to show how important the lifting mechanism is.. so much moisture and instability to work with.

Agreed. On June 6 last year, we had a moderate risk from the SPC along with 10% tornado and 45% wind with hatched probabilities that was a total bust. We tend to get more of our surprise and legit threats during the August-October time frames when the best polar jet stream dynamics are closer to us as fall approaches.

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Agreed. On June 6 last year, we had a moderate risk from the SPC along with 10% tornado and 45% wind with hatched probabilities that was a total bust. We tend to get more of our surprise and legit threats during the August-October time frames when the best polar jet stream dynamics are closer to us as fall approaches.

yes and look where the storms hit:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100606_rpts.html

NE of NYC, look familar? We were too far away from the low pressure area, height falls and best forcing.

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I wouldn't call it off yet, but I made a post last night on the severe reports in the Lakes region being unimpressive outside of central/northern Michigan, which did translate due eastward to C/NNE. Seems like their problem was not enough forcing for the CAP to break, much like for our area southward. We're too far removed from the best lifting and wind shear.

Agreed...that anticyclonic shear and well-retreated jet stream also weakened anvil level winds and gave the area overall general descent outside of the NY-New England corridor. This was still one of more impressive instability-days/EML events. Either way, I am disappointed that I pointed out that flaw yesterday but didn't downplay the activity. Oh well, bust for me. I still can't get over what's going on north of the area. Those are impressive supercells! That Springfield tornado video is awesome.

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