TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 impressive to get something to go through downtown sprinfield in that valley because of the mountains to the west. Generally the best stuff comes down the valley and not west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 With nothing firing over western NJ I definitely agree with uptons thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well that cell over northern NJ had a real chance, but another cell developed to its NE and helped choke it off. I'm now getting some light rain from that. I think its pretty safe to call this one a bust. Pretty amazing to see all these paramaters get wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 With nothing firing over western NJ I definitely agree with uptons thinking Looks like this one cell is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is that Springfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton is right it is all over. Everything keeps weakening. I am so pissed that something has always go wrong with this area. We needed more large-scale ascent and stronger low-level convergence. We typically do not have those ingredients for over area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'll trade the lack of action here for the fantabulous video out of Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is that Springfield? Looks like a mult-vortex tornado on video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Impressive warned cell slated for Mercer County. Looks to be on track for my area in Monmouth. Mmm boy, the northern Mercer cell is dying, hopefully something pops on its outflow boundary. The severe warned cell in SW Monmouth will probably miss to my south if it doesn't extend nwd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is that Springfield? It went from West Sprinfield where the golds gym and Big E is right over the river and memorial bridge right over the high rise buildings in downtown springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 We needed more large-scale ascent and stronger low-level convergence. We typically do not have those ingredients for over area. Its always something, we just never get good severe weather threats around here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 oh well.. bummer.. it seems like our best convection is surprise stuff that nobody predicts.. when we get overhyped warnings, it doesn't seem to work out for us alot... just goes to show how important the lifting mechanism is.. so much moisture and instability to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Its always something, we just never get good severe weather threats around here anymore. well.. I wouldn't say that entirely.. look at all that tornadic stuff in the city the past few years.. I think we've had some good stuff. I think it's just painful when there is a lot of hype and nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Bust here but that big cell is heading straight for Boston. Wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 oh well.. bummer.. it seems like our best convection is surprise stuff that nobody predicts.. when we get overhyped warnings, it doesn't seem to work out for us alot... just goes to show how important the lifting mechanism is.. so much moisture and instability to work with. so are officially calling this one a bust? atleast for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Instability is dropping like a rock, and look at that CIN that has increased over NE NJ and points east, stick a fork in this one. Very dissapointing considering we had a day 5 outlook on this. I wouldn't call it off yet, but I made a post last night on the severe reports in the Lakes region being unimpressive outside of central/northern Michigan, which did translate due eastward to C/NNE. Seems like their problem was not enough forcing for the CAP to break, much like for our area southward. We're too far removed from the best lifting and wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 well.. I wouldn't say that entirely.. look at all that tornadic stuff in the city the past few years.. I think we've had some good stuff. I think it's just painful when there is a lot of hype and nothing happens. its not good for SPC or Upton, people will be more complacent for the next watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 why was that pic of the Joplin twister posted implying that was Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 impressive to get something to go through downtown sprinfield in that valley because of the mountains to the west. Generally the best stuff comes down the valley and not west to east. Amazing how the tornadoes this year have had such a tendency to hit populated areas. First Tuscaloosa, then Joplin, and now Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 its not good for SPC or Upton, people will be more complacent for the next watch. I agree. Too many busted tornado watches of late. At least we weren't in moderate risk this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 oh well.. bummer.. it seems like our best convection is surprise stuff that nobody predicts.. when we get overhyped warnings, it doesn't seem to work out for us alot... just goes to show how important the lifting mechanism is.. so much moisture and instability to work with. Agreed. On June 6 last year, we had a moderate risk from the SPC along with 10% tornado and 45% wind with hatched probabilities that was a total bust. We tend to get more of our surprise and legit threats during the August-October time frames when the best polar jet stream dynamics are closer to us as fall approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 why was that pic of the Joplin twister posted implying that was Springfield That was in Springfield; TWC is showing that video right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 What a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice storm approaching the Brunswicks and into Sayreville shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice storm approaching the Brunswicks and into Sayreville shortly. Hoping to get at least some rain out of the deal, but that may be asking too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yea looks like I'll get clipped by that cell near Spotswood, looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Agreed. On June 6 last year, we had a moderate risk from the SPC along with 10% tornado and 45% wind with hatched probabilities that was a total bust. We tend to get more of our surprise and legit threats during the August-October time frames when the best polar jet stream dynamics are closer to us as fall approaches. yes and look where the storms hit: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100606_rpts.html NE of NYC, look familar? We were too far away from the low pressure area, height falls and best forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cell in New Brunswick is possibly carrying 2.50"-inch hail with it, courtesy of Wunderground radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't call it off yet, but I made a post last night on the severe reports in the Lakes region being unimpressive outside of central/northern Michigan, which did translate due eastward to C/NNE. Seems like their problem was not enough forcing for the CAP to break, much like for our area southward. We're too far removed from the best lifting and wind shear. Agreed...that anticyclonic shear and well-retreated jet stream also weakened anvil level winds and gave the area overall general descent outside of the NY-New England corridor. This was still one of more impressive instability-days/EML events. Either way, I am disappointed that I pointed out that flaw yesterday but didn't downplay the activity. Oh well, bust for me. I still can't get over what's going on north of the area. Those are impressive supercells! That Springfield tornado video is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hoping to get at least some rain out of the deal, but that may be asking too much. Looks like its on a path through Spotswood, Monroe, Old Bridge and then south into Marlboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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