IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Supercell near Middletown is actually a left mover. If the storms near Allentown really begin to organize, they will likley make more of a SE jog and miss most of us to the south. I don't know what to think right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Spotter reports of 1.25-1.75 inch hail with that cell leaving Sullivan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Supercell near Middletown is actually a left mover. If the storms near Allentown really begin to organize, they will likley make more of a SE jog and miss most of us to the south. I don't know what to think right now. how about you just wait instead of extrapolating storms that havent even formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Supercell near Middletown is actually a left mover. If the storms near Allentown really begin to organize, they will likley make more of a SE jog and miss most of us to the south. I don't know what to think right now. Start to think about never posting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yes, your area could still get decent t-storms however the CAPE is much less as you head east of NYC: Instablity does look good even here. You have to go into eastern LI to get into the stable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 how about you just wait instead of extrapolating storms that havent even formed yet. It's just something that I have learned recently with all the severe weather thats been taking place around the country. When supercells really get going they tend to make significant right turns. Keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Start to think about never posting again If the storm near Allentown makes the SE jog then the storm near POU could do it then smack LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Start to think about never posting again don't hate because it's not the scenario that brings svr to your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's just something that I have learned recently with all the severe weather thats been taking place around the country. When supercells really get going they tend to make significant right turns. Keeping my fingers crossed. not quite true. supercells can veer left also, and they could not veer at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 don't hate because it's not the scenario that brings svr to your back yard. Wow bro - it seems your finding every little reason to downplay this event. You're already invalid because you stated that its over when that "line" pushes through, when there's storms forming behind a line that's not even a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't be too particularly concerned about trying to line up any individual cell with hitting a particular area. I would think that major development would still be yet to come. This might be a case where development occurs very close to our particular area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Exactly, plus that cell that was near Allentown already died out and new ones are popping up. Will just be a waiting game to see who gets hit and how severely I wouldn't be too particularly concerned about trying to line up any individual cell with hitting a particular area. I would think that major development would still be yet to come. This might be a case where development occurs very close to our particular area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow bro - it seems your finding every little reason to downplay this event. You're already invalid because you stated that its over when that "line" pushes through, when there's storms forming behind a line that's not even a line. really? I've loved this event from the start, I just don't like current radar trends and its easy to see that the best instability will be leaving us as the line arrives. I do realize that a storm can move in any direction, but the classic scenario is a right mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't be too particularly concerned about trying to line up any individual cell with hitting a particular area. I would think that major development would still be yet to come. This might be a case where development occurs very close to our particular area you think around 5 or so is when the action realy starts to heat up around the nyc metro/li area? as i understand it sounds that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't be too particularly concerned about trying to line up any individual cell with hitting a particular area. I would think that major development would still be yet to come. This might be a case where development occurs very close to our particular area This. The storms are forming on the periphary of the stronger forcing which is adequate to break through the EML cap. This will continue to spread eastward. It should also help keep the storm mode discrete--it's not too often we see that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cap is definitely breaking here in Southern Manhattan. We're in a field of tilted congestus now, some with pretty well defined tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't be too particularly concerned about trying to line up any individual cell with hitting a particular area. I would think that major development would still be yet to come. This might be a case where development occurs very close to our particular area They are not too long lived. Pulsers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I find it interesting there is a STW box directly to the west of the TW box and so far, all the storms seem to be in the STW box area. That would suggest to me that development hasn't really taken shape yet and won't until the front gets closer to the TW box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well, I will say this, the watch is out until 8 pm which is a very long time. This just worries me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 BTW , they extended the TW a bit further west, and posted a STW for the rest of the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This. The storms are forming on the periphary of the stronger forcing which is adequate to break through the EML cap. This will continue to spread eastward. It should also help keep the storm mode discrete--it's not too often we see that around here. yep, exactly. It is a very nice set-up and having the potential for discrete super-cell like activity is a welcome change from the usual squall line activity, although the discrete cells can be more of a pot-luck type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Its amazing how fast the convection has taken hold - whole sky is filled with congestus now. Like flicking a switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The only thing that has me concerned is there is an awfully big gap between the storms near Poughkeepsie and the storms just north of Allentown. Big gap of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yep, exactly. It is a very nice set-up and having the potential for discrete super-cell like activity is a welcome change from the usual squall line activity, although the discrete cells can be more of a pot-luck type of thing. I would take a squall line anyday over hit or miss storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The only thing that has me concerned is there is an awfully big gap between the storms near Poughkeepsie and the storms just north of Allentown. Big gap of nothing. Vis loop. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Getting in on the covective debree now in Ramsey. It almost looks like it wants to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 it has gotten dark really quick here and winds are really picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 storms still struggling to maintain solid updrafts over eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would take a squall line anyday over hit or miss storms. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would take a squall line anyday over hit or miss storms. Agree. Based upon convective initiation thus far, the screw zone may be NNJ/NYC and the lower hudson valley, with the northern storms from NW CT nwd and the southern batch from SE PA/CNJ southward into the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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