NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 But wouldn't a good CAP shut down the severe weather potential? In the absence of a good enough lifting mechanism, then yes. But I dont see that being a problem with a trough/cold front pushing east...We also see storms firing up to the northwest so this is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 im still worried that the winds shift west out ahead of these storms and we get a whole lot of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 im still worried that the winds shift west out ahead of these storms and we get a whole lot of nothing Me too and I would hate a dry cold front or just boring rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms are trying to get its act together in Eastern Pa that is positive thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ahhhhh, looks like a squall line is attempting to form, and looks like northern NJ and the city might be in the screw zone Hope things change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There looks to be some instability even in the Western half of LI. Only Eastern LI look to have the stable air to me so I think everybody except eastern LI should have good shot of getting thunderstorms at least if not severe storms from the city and westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would expect the line to organize/strengthen as it enters the more favorable environment, will be interesting to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ahhhhh, looks like a squall line is attempting to form, and looks like northern NJ and the city might be in the screw zone Hope things change I wish these storms would move more ESE or SE oppose to due East than the city and LI would all get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 good afternoon all.. 90/75.. full sun all day.. the atmosphere has gotta be primed big time for some action... hope we see some cool stuff this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would expect the line to organize/strengthen as it enters the more favorable environment, will be interesting to watch it unfold. Those storms are already in a very favorable enviornment, I think there is something missing right now, and I'm not sure what it is yet. The instability is rapidly dropping behind that line. We might be screwed. Still a long time to watch things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 By the way it is 79/69 here so do think this condensible for thunderstorms here? If it was only in the 60's with a SE wind than I would call this a strong marine layer and most likely the storms would weaken and die into just general rain showers or cloud debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Those storms are already in a very favorable enviornment, I think there is something missing right now, and I'm not sure what it is yet. The instability is rapidly dropping behind that line. We might be screwed. Still a long time to watch things play out. Stop jinxing lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Things starting to percolate a wee bit here at the battery. A few cumulus humilis and mediocris. Shear is obvious from cloud shapes. I have a terrific view in all directions but north (being 35 stories up helps), so if something is cooking I'll see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Those storms are already in a very favorable enviornment, I think there is something missing right now, and I'm not sure what it is yet. The instability is rapidly dropping behind that line. We might be screwed. Still a long time to watch things play out. the storms are outrunning the forcing, shear is present but not great and the forcing is also present but not great. Plus the CAP is not allowing for the full CAPE to be realized. We need some strong storms to get going and form a nice cold pool aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms near Allentown will clip NYC. We just need them to strengthen a bit for us to have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Stop jinxing lets see how it plays out. "jinxing" They are already dropping the watches from west to east as the line moves through, so looks like this is our best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 One thing I don't like is the direction they are moving in I rather them to move more ESE or SE oppose to due than due East. 1. Hold together when they reach the coast 2. More likely to both the city and island 3. Form a nice cluster and go into more unstable environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms near Allentown will clip NYC. We just need them to strengthen a bit for us to have fun. doubt it, the storms are not moving in that direction. A big supercell just popped northewest of Middletown. Our best shot would be to see it quickly rotate and make a hard right turn. Other than that, not seeing anything too impressive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 700 mb weakness coincides well with the areas of convection breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 doubt it, the storms are not moving in that direction. A big supercell just popped northewest of Middletown. Our best shot would be to see it quickly rotate and make a hard right turn. Other than that, not seeing anything too impressive at the moment. They are moving ESE. At this current path, northern NYC and SWCT would get clipped. That supercell northwest of middletown looks wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Looks to me like there are cells starting to form behind the initial one's north of Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms moving towards Warren county are strengthening and entering a highly unstable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms moving towards Warren county are strengthening and entering a highly unstable environment. isnt the best for the nyc metro to come in like 2 or 3 hours anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 New cell has popped up just northwest of Allentown, due east brings it to Brooklyn/Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms moving towards Warren county are strengthening and entering a highly unstable environment. Good does Western half of Suffolk County (LI) still at least getting thunderstorms despite barely outside this watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Good does Western half of Suffolk County (LI) still at least getting thunderstorms despite barely outside this watch? yes, your area could still get decent t-storms however the CAPE is much less as you head east of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 New cell has popped up just northwest of Allentown, due east brings it to Brooklyn/Queens. we want these cells to pop between 3:30 and 5:00 (the later the better due to the progged increase in shear), not seeing a ton of action right now is a good thing, unless you want a squall line to congeal in the tor area rather than supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Good does Western half of Suffolk County (LI) still at least getting thunderstorms despite barely outside this watch? dude, you gotta chill with the imby posts..yes you guys look fine. storms may be elevated when they get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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