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Central PA Summer Thread


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The period Thursday through Saturday next week will be a very memorable heat wave if the core of that ridge gets over us like the Euro has been showing consistently and now the other models are showing as well.

It has been bone dry here for over a month and the grass is a crunchy brown. We are already seeing impressive heating and huge diurnal ranges. Will be interesting to see how hot it can get when you throw 850s that could reach 23-25 degrees C.

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The period Thursday through Saturday next week will be a very memorable heat wave if the core of that ridge gets over us like the Euro has been showing consistently and now the other models are showing as well.

It has been bone dry here for over a month and the grass is a crunchy brown. We are already seeing impressive heating and huge diurnal ranges. Will be interesting to see how hot it can get when you throw 850s that could reach 23-25 degrees C.

I saw that. I am really keeping my fingers crossed for rain Sunday (not a great chance) and Tuesday (somewhat better chance) before this hits. Notsomuch for me, I can easily water via a pump we run from a creek in my neighbor's yard for our garden and basically irrigate, but area farmers have to be concerned.

Any idea on rain in the longer term?

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I saw that. I am really keeping my fingers crossed for rain Sunday (not a great chance) and Tuesday (somewhat better chance) before this hits. Notsomuch for me, I can easily water via a pump we run from a creek in my neighbor's yard for our garden and basically irrigate, but area farmers have to be concerned.

Any idea on rain in the longer term?

What is rain? Lol

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I saw that. I am really keeping my fingers crossed for rain Sunday (not a great chance) and Tuesday (somewhat better chance) before this hits. Notsomuch for me, I can easily water via a pump we run from a creek in my neighbor's yard for our garden and basically irrigate, but area farmers have to be concerned.

Any idea on rain in the longer term?

I'll be surprised if we see much of anything Sunday. Heights are around 590, so we should be pretty well capped. The feature Monday night/Tuesday is not all that impressive, but it's our best chance for the next 7-10 days. A lot of the fronts passing through recently have not produced a whole lot, and the fact that this front may come through at night won't help our rain chances.

Past 10 days, our rain chances should improve as the ridge gradually retreats back west. That being said, it can be hard to come out of these dry patterns this time of year because the lack of moisture can hinder thunderstorm development. Best case scenario would be for the ridge to sit in a perfect spot over the Plains so we get a few MCSs to come overtop of the ridge into PA. In a pattern like this, I would rather have something form elsewhere and try to move in to PA rather than trying to form over us. I'm not saying stuff can't form over a dry ground, but the lower dew points caused by the dry ground can have an impact.

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I'll be surprised if we see much of anything Sunday. Heights are around 590, so we should be pretty well capped. The feature Monday night/Tuesday is not all that impressive, but it's our best chance for the next 7-10 days. A lot of the fronts passing through recently have not produced a whole lot, and the fact that this front may come through at night won't help our rain chances.

Past 10 days, our rain chances should improve as the ridge gradually retreats back west. That being said, it can be hard to come out of these dry patterns this time of year because the lack of moisture can hinder thunderstorm development. Best case scenario would be for the ridge to sit in a perfect spot over the Plains so we get a few MCSs to come overtop of the ridge into PA. In a pattern like this, I would rather have something form elsewhere and try to move in to PA rather than trying to form over us. I'm not saying stuff can't form over a dry ground, but the lower dew points caused by the dry ground can have an impact.

Thank you for your post, I appreciate it.

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What a week this could be for Central PA. Going from mid 80s and very low DPs to near the century mark! I think thus far we have been rather lucky in dodging extended heat, while most of the country just bakes. Admittedly this is mid-late July so it's about time we get out heat. For anyone interested you can track the heat real time via our state mesonet.

Link to mesonet: http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=PA

On the left side you will see a panel labeled 'Networks' . Hit the drop down menu, select 'All Networks' and then click the red button below to 'Map It'. Enjoy! :sunny:

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CTP hints at an potentially interesting afternoon/eve for some of us. I just want the rain:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA WILL LIKELYDISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO DROP FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND NO SOURCECONVECTION RENEWS THE UPGLID/MSTR. THE TEMPS WILL GET HOT...BUTCOULD STAY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE NRN TIER AS THE EARLYARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP OCCURS LATER THISMORNING.STRONG NW FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A JET STREAKMOVES ESE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THEDIRUNAL HEAT WILL COMBINE TO MAKE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING.ANY STORMS LEFT AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT COULD LINGER ALL NIGHT DEPENDINGON UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITHCONVECTION OVER OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT MOST WILL BE OFF TOTHE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SPC SLIGHTRISK CONTINUES AND THEY CONTINUE TO MENTION SUPERCELLS AREPOSSIBLE...WITH A LOW BUT PRESENT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MAINCONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE BOWING SEGMENTS.

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Interesting CTP late morning update:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THE TEMPS WILL GET HOT THIS AFTN...AND APPEAR ON TRACK. CONVECTIVESHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ON SHORE NEAR KERI...AND AREEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS THEY HIT THE WARMER LAND ANDDEVELOP CAPES IN THE >1000J/KG RANGE.STRONG NW FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A JET STREAKMOVES ESE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THEDIURNAL HEAT WILL COMBINE TO MAKE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES AND THEY CONTINUETO MENTION SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A LOW BUT PRESENT THREATFOR TORNADOES AS LCLS ARE LOW ATTM. LLVL SHEAR APPEARS TO BEINCREASING - KUNV GUSTING A BIT NOW OUT OF THE WSW AND BACKINGSEEN OVER NWRN PA.

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