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Central PA Summer Thread


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Well nothing like a wake up call from Mother Nature at 5:15 in the morning. The cell that went right over me in Carlisle was at 60 dBZ when it came over town. We had some small hail mixed in with the rain as well. Also, I swear the thunder in early morning thunderstorms that hit this area is much more loud and pronounced on average then storms that occur in the afternoon or evening. Anyone else experience that trend around here? What boundary has been over central Pennsylvania for the past 15 hours or so? This is the 3rd round of storms here in that time span and I though our POP's were only 30%-40%.

Some radar grabs from this morning:

RSbOs.jpg

4:55 A.M.

PudmT.jpg

5:10 A.M.

3Cu66.png

5:25 A.M.

O3jwU.jpg

5:30 A.M (close up of my wakeup call)

0MEon.png

5:40 A.M.

E1vgv.png

5:55 A.M.

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Nice looking storm. We had about .15" overnight from a shower or two. Could have used more. I've noticed the same thing about early morning storms...the thunder really seems to roll on and on...must be something about the early morning atmosphere?

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Nice looking storm. We had about .15" overnight from a shower or two. Could have used more. I've noticed the same thing about early morning storms...the thunder really seems to roll on and on...must be something about the early morning atmosphere?

Hello neighbor! Yea I've noticed the same thing about early morning thunderstorms being particularly nasty. I guess maybe because the atmosphere has to be very ripe for storms to develop that time of day without help from the sun? So, I guess it's been relatively dry here rainwise. Noticed on the way up here from Burlington, NJ that traveling through Delco and Montco PA the grass and surrounding vegetation was very green but working my way towards the lancaster area the grass seemed much drier. Back home its been bone dry. Not a drop. For you guys looks like if those storms hold together north of Reading, could spell some trouble for the lancaster-lebanon area.

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Anyone have any reports on the cells north of Lancaster-Harrisburg. I notice theres a warning attached to it in schuykill and northern Lebanon county now.

I was on the very western fringe of that cell in Lebanon County. I'd wager just 400-500 yards WNW had nearly nothing...we had almost .20" and few gusts of wind. The cell was warned for hail, and judging by the sky I'd say there was some just east of me...the storm had a pink and green tinge to the east of my house. It had some nice cloud structure as it approached...would have been really neat had the sun been shining into it. Would have liked a bit more rain, but combined with the .14" from overnight, that's enough to keep the garden going for now without watering.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 438

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

155 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC031-039-049-053-083-085-121-123-081100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0438.110608T0555Z-110608T1100Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE

FOREST MCKEAN MERCER

VENANGO WARREN

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ww0451_radar_big.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 451

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1255 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN MARYLAND

SOUTHEASTERN OHIO

MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA

WESTERN VIRGINIA

MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL

800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHEAST OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST

OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE

WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD

FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR

AT 30 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. WHILE HAIL

LIKELY WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ONCE STORMS DEVELOP ...THE STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND

DAMAGE BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...IMY

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Out of curiosity -- I see that most of central PA is under WW451 until 8pm. We too have a watch here in NEPA until 8pm as well, but it is WW450.

They are both in the same general area and go to the same time. Why go with two different WWs though?

They might have issued the watch for NE PA up into NY earlier today due to the convection firing up there first. There's already several cells with warnings from north of BGM up into the Adirondacks. Down this way things haven't gotten to the point of busting through yet, although it's getting very close and I expect to see things start popping up soon.

Wind and big hail are going to be major threats in any storms today given monster CAPE and what is anticipated to be some decent mid level lapses as the afternoon wears on. Tornado threat should stay on the low side given fairly low to nonexistent helicities. Can't rule out a spin up or two though, esp once up towards and into NY state where those helicities are slightly higher.

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Could be looking at an active afternoon/evening:

post-1507-0-69465200-1307634973.gif

What do you think? Can they make it past the Allegheny Front and hit us?

Out of curiosity -- I see that most of central PA is under WW451 until 8pm. We too have a watch here in NEPA until 8pm as well, but it is WW450.

They are both in the same general area and go to the same time. Why go with two different WWs though?

Good question - wondered this myself, unless there are different percentages for each severe aspect.

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For a moderate risk, this is not looking very impressive.

Looks like the Weather Ginzu/Allegheny Front is chopping it up pretty good.

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For a moderate risk, this is not looking very impressive.

Looks like the Weather Ginzu/Allegheny Front is chopping it up pretty good.

Yea the severe just really didn't get going in our particular region.. again. The main show with this overall line is clearly up in southeast NY and New England. Some nice cells (some severe warned) are now starting to fire east and southeast of the stuff that moved thru the JST/AOO/UNV region in the Susquehanna valley. These cells might eventually consolidate and make an extension of the kind of line we're seeing further north as things push toward SE PA.

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