NortheastPAWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 PSUHazle, NWS has you guys getting most of your rain after midnight, so I wouldn't get too bent out of shape over it. I note the surge also. Yeah, I suppose you are right... Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. MAG5035, I see the surge you're talking about -- a little frustrating however that we remain totally dry while heavy rain is very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Why do u guys want rain so bad...lol..if it we're a 65 mph wind driven rain I'd be in I'm going out on a limb and saying IPT comes in with .25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 All remains quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Pretty heavy rain here now, still no real wind at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 All remains quiet. It's pushing west pretty well. Have no idea how far it will go: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CCX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's pushing west pretty well. Have no idea how far it will go: http://www.wundergro...w=0&lightning=0 My guess would be somewhere near where MAG said earlier, not quite getting to I-99 and maybe as far west as that Bedford to Huntingdon and Bellefonte line. Given the position of the storm, I don't see how the solid rain gets west of I-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Up to 1-1.5 according to radar estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Really coming down and radar looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Oh hai there rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Rain rain stay away...we have a World Series to get over with tmrw in Billtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Rain rain stay away...we have a World Series to get over with tmrw in Billtown I was so bummed when Keystone lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I was so bummed when Keystone lost. I know man! I was at a couple of the games with some LHU friends....left depressed after the California game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Very strong gust here. Launched something (i'm thinking a small branch) into one of the house windows. Think I'm gonna head back up to lookout in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's pushing west pretty well. Have no idea how far it will go: http://www.wundergro...w=0&lightning=0 It is making a great press westward, certainly better than I thought it would've made by this point tonight. It's gonna have to stop in a hurry to stall at that line I laid out. HRRR continues to drive the shield into most of the central counties overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Check out the latest RUC. Brings center over Philly in 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Philly/Delaware County are going to end up being be the worst off when all said and done, isn't it? Bloomberg is going to get roasted for all his doom and gloom/shutting down the city stuff IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Unless the COC picks up more of a Northeasterly direction, it will pass just a hair West of the 3GMT 12z Euro checkpoint. This would make a potential brush with Chincoteague and OC, MD more likely. Check out the latest RUC. Brings center over Philly in 8 hours Still looks like its tracking due North per radar. New GFS tracks the COC between Cherry Hill and Toms River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Still looks like its tracking due North per radar. New GFS tracks the COC between Cherry Hill and Toms River. That's why the back edge of the rain is coming so far west. Could bust up my forecast pretty good if it keeps coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Check out the latest RUC. Brings center over Philly in 8 hours It may just happen, or at least the center maybe running through interior NJ. Judging by the radar it appears that the storm is starting to accelerate and it doesn't seem like the center of the storm is making the fade to stay out over the water until western LI. It still has a bit of a eastward motion to its northerly trajectory, but its making more of a straight shot NNE rather than a fade more NE over time.. at least up to this point. That might mean the center ends up somewhat further west, but at this point the difference is pretty slight with regards to impacts. Although, that may be helping the rain shield expand westward further. Philly/Delaware County are going to end up being be the worst off when all said and done, isn't it? Bloomberg is going to get roasted for all his doom and gloom/shutting down the city stuff IMO. As I had mentioned, the difference at this point whether the center rides up inland in NJ or comes into western LI likely won't make too much of a difference. The center of the storm will still be very close if not over NYC eventually. Could eat into rainfall totals if it actually ends up further west, but the storm surge from the unimpeded southerly fetch on the east side could still be an issue from there to across Long Island to southern New England. And that fetch is a large one considering the storms size. If the center rides up inland that still exposes NYC to the highest winds for the same reason. Hurricanes don't directly target NYC very often, so it'll be interesting to see what impacts actually occur. The mass transit shutdown was def necessary, I guess we'll see if the mandatory evacuations were. But better safe than sorry, and this storm is likely to at least make for a good test of preparedness and executing emergency plans in the event a much stronger hurricane targets them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 That's why the back edge of the rain is coming so far west. Could bust up my forecast pretty good if it keeps coming north. at this rate, I think .25" will excite me lol. Any time a storm overperforms is time to celebrate even if its slightly underforcasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 That's why the back edge of the rain is coming so far west. Could bust up my forecast pretty good if it keeps coming north. Didn't the euro show a similar track on the 00Z two nights prior? I think it had it somehow going between Lancaster and Philadelphia, while ever other model was a good 150miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Why is the backside of this so windy but void of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 So, red-taggers, when can NEPA start to expect the real heavy stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 So, red-taggers, when can NEPA start to expect the real heavy stuff? The core of the heavy rain is over NEPA now and should stay there for the next few hours. There will be more heavy bands of rain to follow, but the most consistent heavy rain will occur overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Sustained wind picking up. Easily into the 20's with gusts into the 30's. Edit- Just as I sent this had a power flash. Off then back on. We'll im heading up to lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Pretty breezy out. Some very light rain has arrived...on a winter scale i'm up to about flizzard status right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 RUC had us at 1.00" by now...so far, barely over 0.50"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Pretty dangerous out there right now. Lots of flooded out streets. Lots of small tree limbs down. Lookout must have had a pretty wicked gust, as there was a few fairly large saplings bent over and snapped. Measurement showed they all had diameters of roughly 4-7 inches. Drove by the local red cross makeshift shelter, which had quite a few cars in it already. Looking at our local AWOS shows a sustained winds of 16 with a peak gust of 35. * Forgot to add that from Lookout, you can see a great deal of the local valley...including Frystown which had power when I got up there. Then there was a bright flash and everything went dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Some great wind driven heavy rain the last hour in Camp Hill. Winds are forcasted to peak here around 5 to 7 am. Would love to see some rain totals, as apparently I heard earlier in the day that some local stations were calling for "maybe an inch" for west of the river. PPL is up to 45000 homes without power now. Most up in Berks and Lehigh counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.