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Central PA Summer Thread

The Iceman

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
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i was actually nervous myself. You get those bad thunderstorms with strong wind gusts that last for a a couple of minutes...the wind HOWLED that night for several hours. Our bedroom window faces south and east, and they were shaking. My wife and i got up and took the kids downstairs for a while. The wind had woke all of us up, so we decided to have some fun and play some games at 2am. That fun was short lived though, once the power went out, the younger kids were scared.

lol, our front windows also faced south and slightly east as well, so i know exactly what your saying. :arrowhead:

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Tried to post half an hour ago, the east coast weenie crush has the forum being a pain in the butt.

Any rate was passing euro numbers while i look at some of the actual maps coming in and eventually the EPS control run. The Euro op is a hair east of last night, and for our area the part that sees that change the most is the AOO/UNV corridor where qpf is axed in more than half this go around. The gradient across our region is significant.

JST 0.25"

AOO/UNV about an inch QPF.

Willamsport is about 2.8"

Hagerstown around 3"

Harrisburg, Scranton/WB, and Lancaster are 5",5", and 5.3" respectively (!!!)

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Anduril

Anduril

Posted
Posted

Tried to post half an hour ago, the east coast weenie crush has the forum being a pain in the butt.

Any rate was passing euro numbers while i look at some of the actual maps coming in and eventually the EPS control run. The Euro op is a hair east of last night, and for our area the part that sees that change the most is the AOO/UNV corridor where qpf is axed in more than half this go around. The gradient across our region is significant.

JST 0.25"

AOO/UNV about an inch QPF.

Willamsport is about 2.8"

Hagerstown around 3"

Harrisburg, Scranton/WB, and Lancaster are 5",5", and 5.3" respectively (!!!)

Now is that straight 5in of rain or 5 x whatever factor like in a snow storm?

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

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Tough call. Are anyone in the Philly thread talking about a chase? You could meet up with them. Sure they'd take along another Flyer fan.

Not that I saw.

Yea 0z Euro pounds the eastern 2/3's of PA rainwise. In true central PA AOO and UNV get 2.5" and almost 3" respectively. The Europeans EPS control run offers pretty much the same general solution, which likely indicates that the ensemble spread jives with the operational quite nicely. Another noteable thing on the 0z Euro is that it's 10m wind gust map places a corridor 50-55knots in the slice of PA between State College and Harrisburg. If the storm comes west enough a good high elevation on a ridge top or something may be a good substitute for going to NJ.

As for the GFS, looks like the 6z GFS was a bit east of the 0z run, which stomped NE PA up into the BGM area. Both GFS runs confined heavier rainfall to about the eastern quarter of PA and only got trace to minor amounts back into the central counties. Overall the I-81 corridor and east looks like a very high likelihood of seeing decent effects from the storm, but any shift either way with the models will determine how ridiculous those effects get. Back in the central, it continues to be worth watching in my opinion.

I thought about this too. There's a few ridges pushing 1500+ just to my North.

I'm dying to go back to my parents back in Levittown...Euro pretty much takes Irene right over their house but class tentatively starts monday. Oh well, we are looking at TS winds out here and still 3-5 inches of rain right now. with a trend to the west right now, we could see even more.

Blah, shifting East. Had a feeling it would. Flyod redux. Hook, line and sinker.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Blah, shifting East. Had a feeling it would. Flyod redux. Hook, line and sinker.

I would give modelling the benefit of the doubt for maybe a few more runs except it has become clear in the last several hours that Irene has made a shift to due north if not even a bit of a very slight NNE jog at one point. How much of a shift is being debated a bit in the main thread. For folks in the megalopolis and also New England, this doesn't really change the very messy end game all that much right now. However, for our region.. this shift coupled with the modelling backing a hair east makes the prospects of heavy rainfall getting all the way back into the true central very small (they had been relatively low to begin with). 0z Euro QPF output on Harrisburg is cut in half from 12z, which would make any flooding issues a bit more managable there.

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

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I would give modelling the benefit of the doubt for maybe a few more runs except it has become clear in the last several hours that Irene has made a shift to due north if not even a bit of a very slight NNE jog at one point. How much of a shift is being debated a bit in the main thread. For folks in the megalopolis and also New England, this doesn't really change the very messy end game all that much right now. However, for our region.. this shift coupled with the modelling backing a hair east makes the prospects of heavy rainfall getting all the way back into the true central very small (they had been relatively low to begin with). 0z Euro QPF output on Harrisburg is cut in half from 12z, which would make any flooding issues a bit more managable there.

Every time you think she's going to make a run at Cat4,ERC. If the winds could just catch up to the pressure.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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I would give modelling the benefit of the doubt for maybe a few more runs except it has become clear in the last several hours that Irene has made a shift to due north if not even a bit of a very slight NNE jog at one point. How much of a shift is being debated a bit in the main thread. For folks in the megalopolis and also New England, this doesn't really change the very messy end game all that much right now. However, for our region.. this shift coupled with the modelling backing a hair east makes the prospects of heavy rainfall getting all the way back into the true central very small (they had been relatively low to begin with). 0z Euro QPF output on Harrisburg is cut in half from 12z, which would make any flooding issues a bit more managable there.

Interesting that the 12Z hurricane models are back somewhat west, siding more with UKIE/CMC/ECM/NOGAPS vs. GFS/NAM/HWRF

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Man, did we get dumped on again last evening. jeez, it down poured for a good 45 minutes. we've had a lot of rain in the susq. valley as of late. I'm keeping close eye on Irene. "if" we get a couple inches + any sustained winds, we could have some issues. the ground is saturated.

NAM's bit west again. Going to be very close for you.

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sauss06

sauss06

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I got 2.25" last night and 1.4" yesterday morning. NAM is west ... if it's west, Harrisburg area Wull be a freaking lake and trees will fall like Dominos due to saturation.

I'm pretty positive in heading down to Ocean City tonight to ride out Irene!

They won't let you in. they are on phase 3 of their emergency prepardness. + they quit selling booze.

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

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None. :( My wife won't allow me to go chase Irene (or should I say allow Irene to chase me). Anyone wanna swap wives? :)

Geebus man. Lay down the law. Say its a reward. You'll be rid of me for a day or two.

Still trying to figure out if I want to go. Have the clothing, med kit, extra gas and other necessities. Thought about targeting the Cape May area. That way if the center cuts West, I can travel and see the surge up the Delaware. If it cuts East, make my way to the ocean.

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canderson

canderson

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She's concerned about flooding around Harrisburg, which is a valid concern.

We have friends whiling in Ridgewwod - they've BERN out of town a week and left before Irene; they have outdoor furniture all around and towering trees (their house was built in 1871).

It's a gorgeous mansion that u hope is OK when they return from overseas ...

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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She's concerned about flooding around Harrisburg, which is a valid concern.

We have friends whiling in Ridgewwod - they've BERN out of town a week and left before Irene; they have outdoor furniture all around and towering trees (their house was built in 1871).

It's a gorgeous mansion that u hope is OK when they return from overseas ...

12z European looks like it is back to putting heavy rain in the H-burg area (over 4"). What I think will be ultimately pivotal for our region is how much Irene fades east once it hits North Carolina. What i've seemed to notice on the models is that the center jogs northeast once around the Outer Banks back into the water until up till either NJ or Long Island. If that happens then the Sus Valley probably "only" sees a couple inches of rain . However, if the storm continues on a consistent due north or very slightly east of north up just inside the coast taking the center over say about Philly, then the Sus Valley would be susceptible to more of an all out tropical blitzkreig, with the excessive rainfall and perhaps wind becoming more of an issue.

Here's CTP via Steinbugl:

RAINFALL AND FLOODING...VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RNFL IS EXPECTED ALONG/INVOF THE TRACK OFIRENE. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PARAMETERS/ANOMALIES WITH THIS SYSTEMARE BASICALLY OFF THE CHARTS. MDL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ASHARP GRADIENT IN QPF AMTS ON THE WEST-SIDE OF THE TROPICALSYSTEM...WITH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF PENNSYLVANIA EXPERIENCING THEGREATEST THREAT/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT TO PERHAPSRECORD RAINFALL. MANUAL 6-HOURLY QPF AMTS WERE COMPRISED OFA HPC/RFC/GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH RESULTED IN 48-HOUR STORMTOTALS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.25" OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...0.25-0.75"IN THE CENTRAL MTNS TO 1-4" ALONG/EAST OF IPT-MDT LINE. THE HIGHEREND TOTALS BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4 INCHES ARE LOCATED GENERALLY EAST OFA LINE FROM GETTYSBURG TO BLOOMSBURG. ANY DEVIATION IN THE STORMTRACK MAY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN SLIGHTLY WEST OR EAST. GIVENTHAT KEY RAINFALL INGREDIENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IN THE EXTREMERANGE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTSVERIFY WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 6-8 INCHES IN THE FAR SE ZONES BASEDON INTERPOLATION OF THE OUTLIER/MAX QPF ENS MEMBERS ON PLUMEDIAGRAMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SECOUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RNFL EXISTS.RNFL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR AND AFOREMENTIONED 2-4+ INCH STORMTOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING

Sidenote: I'm in the process of beefing up my new laptop to start using GR2Analyst as well as GIS software. Should have the GR2Analyst ready to roll before things arrive.

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