MAG5035 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the HRRR has nailed this event so far...so tomorrow morning we should know how the threat is. The big thing, specifically in central and western PA , is going to be timing of the front and whether or not the cap currently in place will be easily busted. CAPE's still are and will remain very high overnight. Actually, instability parameters are pretty ridiculous right now (MUCAPE's in excess of 4-5k, etc). Pretty much some of the highest CAPE values you'll see in our region. A problem for the aformentioned central/west could be that frontal passage may occur a bit too early to allow for good daytime surface heating and thus limit the ability for storms to bust the cap and fire. Obviously the further east one goes, the longer its going to get a chance to heat up. I'd say whatever fires up today will easily have the ability to contain both damaging winds and large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Was just up in State College looking at Penn State yesterday...wow it was brutal. This coming from a southerner Quick question (for anyone in this thread really)-how are temps around Labor Day? I'd think that by then there would be fronts moving through pretty regularly, but I've been up to Pittsburgh around that time of year and it is a toss of the dice IMO. Speaking of cold fronts-enjoy the one you guys are about to get (right after I left, figures). Probably won't get one down here for a few more months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Was just up in State College looking at Penn State yesterday...wow it was brutal. This coming from a southerner Quick question (for anyone in this thread really)-how are temps around Labor Day? I'd think that by then there would be fronts moving through pretty regularly, but I've been up to Pittsburgh around that time of year and it is a toss of the dice IMO. Speaking of cold fronts-enjoy the one you guys are about to get (right after I left, figures). Probably won't get one down here for a few more months labor day is usually still warm...upper 70's to low 80's but it can get to mid 90's...just depends on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 i think the past couple Labor days have been hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hoping we get some decent development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Those interested in severe weather potential during the afternoon and evening should be watching this satellite image: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20110601&endTime=-1&duration=0 Watch for initiation of convection across the ridges and pray they don't downslope off the mountains, although that all but always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well south central pa is quite juicy this afternoon. Temps around 90 with dewpoints in the low 70's. The soundings look amazing as well. Just need some forcing to light the match in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well south central pa is quite juicy this afternoon. Temps around 90 with dewpoints in the low 70's. The soundings look amazing as well. Just need some forcing to light the match in this area. yeah, could be fun around here later. Maybe not as fun as last Thursday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There goes the cap in the last 45 minutes Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 warnings issued for these areas * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 warnings issued for these areas * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... FAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 FAIL! yeppers. Wind picked up and its getting dark again.. Hopefully i can swim when i get home..Not really wanting a storm this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yeppers. Wind picked up and its getting dark again.. Hopefully i can swim when i get home..Not really wanting a storm this afternoon Cell 10 miles to my west was 65 DBZ. I got a few sprinkles. Full sunshine now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 sitting to get nailed by the severe warned cell...broad rotation in it too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Storms apparently fell apart as they reached my end of Lebanon County yesterday...only few drops of rain at home...a few tenths would have been nice. Ended up being the hottest day of the heatwave at 94.6°. Pretty impressive highs for the last days of May and first day of June: 91.4° on 5/30...94.3° on 5/31...94.6° on 6/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 What a beautiful day out today, certainly in great contrast to last few days of brutal mid summer weather. There was alot left on the table yesterday with regards to severe potential, as the cap was not really effectively busted thus making for the storms that did fire in the east not really sustaining themselves. Things pretty much evolved as I figured they would with the west and central not really seeing much with the somewhat early frontal passage. Thought we'd see a few more good storms in the Sus valley tho. Pretty much if the front were to have lagged back several hours we would've likely been dealing with a much different situation in central PA yesterday. Also, CTP seems to have gotten caught up with logging onto the website all the recent tornado survey's they've had to do as they are now in the headlines section. May 26th should be a day of interest for all the Sus Valley folks.. 6 tornadoes confirmed that day. Most of those were prob associated with that major line that had consolidated near H-burg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 It's so nice outside. 75, partly cloudy, a great breeze gusting up to 20 keeping it very nice even if in the sun for a short time. Going to be a great night for a baseball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 B-E-A-UTIFUL out. Got to umpire and glad I have to as its gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Frost?? June 2 would be sorta late, ugh guess I gotta cover the plants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Frost?? June 2 would be sorta late, ugh guess I gotta cover the plants! We was at 50 this morning. Everyone have a good Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 We was at 50 this morning. Everyone have a good Friday. my thermo shows we hit 43 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Low of 45F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Anyone getting this MCS that is dropping SE? Totally unexpected, has some severe weather also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Heads up 2001kx! I'm sure your probably already aware.. but: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA121 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... EASTERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 200 PM EDT* AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ELK RIVER TO PORTLAND MILLS TO BROCKWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Anyone getting this MCS that is dropping SE? Totally unexpected, has some severe weather also. I saw the radar about an hour or so ago and it didn't really look all that threatening. I was getting ready to do some house painting and then my friend texts me to look at the radar and I see what we have now. Needless to say i've put the painting on hold . Not really sure how well this is going to hold together as it continues to move into the State College, Altoona, and Johnstown areas. In terms of parameters I don't see a single one supporting the existence of this severe line. No CAPE, no lift, no shear, nada. It's gonna make a run at us though, and this line is flying. Given the speed and how dry it is (dewpoints in the 40s) could be quite breezy with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here and gone. Dropped the temp a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Nice little t-storm here. Small hail mixed with rain - smaller than pea size. Nice lightning show and loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Nice little t-storm here. Small hail mixed with rain - smaller than pea size. Nice lightning show and loud thunder. can see the light show in the distance...hoping it eventually gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Lots of lightning in E. Cocalico Twp and one quick shower. Glancing blow. Up here for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Heads up 2001kx! I'm sure your probably already aware.. but: i was leaving to go to a birthday party just as it was starting. not too bad here...some wicked lightning but the wind was not bad at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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