hckyplayer8 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 .35 at the Gap. Crazy train of storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Maybe Tomorrow night/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Some pictures I took of the storm cell that rolled through Camp Hill 6:15pm last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Nice Pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It's officially 111 at my parents house, tomorrow they expect to reach 113. Today ties the hottest temp of all time, set back in 1921. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Any thoughts about this Sat? I have a party planned with about 75 attending. I can deal with a random thunderstorm or two. What I cant deal with is 75 people in my house because of a monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Latest couple HRRR runs and WRF simulated radar look pretty meh on widespread rain/thunderstorm potential. I don't really see any organized heavy rainfall being depicted and radar upstream seems to be obliging attm. I do think that most of the central and northern counties see at least some scattered action later tonight into tomorrow. Hopefully whatever develops can make it down into the far south-central (i.e Zak's neck of the woods). Am a little pessimistic about that right now. I did notice looking at what the euro had for TS Emily that it was bringing a decent slug of rain diagonally right thru PA, so we shall see how things evolve this evening. Speaking of the tropics, we have Tropical Storm Emily lurking in the Caribbean currently. The 5 day forecast has it trying to make a some kind of a run at the east coast so I decided to give a CPA tropical update of sorts. First off, it would be really nice if this thing found a way to curve up the east coast west enough to affect us (as a weak storm of course). A lot of ppl could use the rainfall, thats for sure. All guidance though curves this thing hard out to sea before it really even gets to the Carolinas. What seems interesting though to me at first glance is the fact that this storm is already pretty far south for how far west it is.. basically under Puerto Rico right now. Assuming it survives its forecasted track right thru the middle of the Dominican Republic in the first place, its going to have to really get yanked hard to go out to sea in the manner that the GFS/ensembles have. So here's the current forecast track (GFS and ensembles shown, HWRF and UKMET are a good bit closer to the coast but still a probable curve out): And here's the Wunderground historical map for tropical storms in this position: Given the pattern, I do think the out to sea track is the most likely one by a pretty large margin..however factors such as timing from going over the DR (which can sometimes slow storms if not kill them) and strength may impact whether this gets captured in the westerlies or perhaps is able stay further south longer and continue to track further westward more like the historical map perhaps allowing a curve that happens later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Hey MAG, it's tough to tell on the map you posted but what storm was the one that took a hook right towards Bermuda and what year? I'm just looking for possible analogs and would love to know if possible. The forecast for heavy rain overnight tonight looks to be all hype atm, the radar looks fairly blahhh unless more develops later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Please bring in that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Please bring in that rain. Ugh. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011080223&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Like a broken record this summer if the stuff upstream ends up doing this. Certainly looks like it may be coming around the ring a lil too quickly on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Ugh. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011080223&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Like a broken record this summer if the stuff upstream ends up doing this. Certainly looks like it may be coming around the ring a lil too quickly on radar. High chance of me throwing my computer out the window if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Some unknown liquid falling here. Probably only get .01-.02" from this little shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Hey MAG, it's tough to tell on the map you posted but what storm was the one that took a hook right towards Bermuda and what year? I'm just looking for possible analogs and would love to know if possible. The forecast for heavy rain overnight tonight looks to be all hype atm, the radar looks fairly blahhh unless more develops later this evening. That historical map doesn't label the particular storms, it's kinda more of a spaghetti plot of all the August storms similar in strength that tracked within 2 degrees of where Emily is currently centered. I showed the map to pretty much illustrate that the forecast for Emily to make the turn is apparently not something that happens very often for a storm that low in latitude. So not sure of any analogs for this, however the NAO is way negative right now and forecast to remain that way for the next several days. It's at a level (-2) that would be pretty impressive in the wintertime much less the summer. That's making for a pretty big trough off the east coast. We're in the middle of that and the large ridge in the central US where the bulk of the heat has been residing the last couple weeks. That major weakness is what is likely to pick this thing up and turn it from what would otherwise typically be destined to be some kind of Gulf or Caribbean storm. The latest 11pm advisory that just came out actually has this pretty close to the coast at a cat 1 south of Hatteras at day 5 now. Any rate, thats stuff for the tropical thread. It's highly unlikely this comes west enough to affect our area via the classic recurve, but it's close enough and the uncertainty is high enough that it may be interesting watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Ugh. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011080223&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Like a broken record this summer if the stuff upstream ends up doing this. Certainly looks like it may be coming around the ring a lil too quickly on radar. The models seem to have been spectacularly bad this summer. Re: the HRRR, my heaviest rain has come when the HRRR showed very little . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Doesn't look like much in the way of rain here today. It's currently sunny and 80°, with the echoes dissipating to the west. Did manage to crack 90° yesterday, surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 And there goes my computer out the window.... Crash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Doesn't look like much in the way of rain here today. It's currently sunny and 80°, with the echoes dissipating to the west. Did manage to crack 90° yesterday, surprisingly. Currently 70.4 here, with that drizzle/rain small dropped hybrid falling. Got .42 so far. Cool-air damming doing it's work, feels much like a September day right now. Kinda nice after all the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 well, got .28". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Looks like we should get something measurable here in the next 30 minutes here. Went for a short hike after dinner, it was nice to hike in light drizzle and 70°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Rain has really been cranking for about the last hour. Very nice rainfall around here today overall for the grass and plants, heck I might need the lawnmower for the whole yard before the weeks over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Looks like we should get something measurable here in the next 30 minutes here. Went for a short hike after dinner, it was nice to hike in light drizzle and 70°. Well that failed...scooted just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 My parents high temp was 31 degrees warmer than Harrisburg's. LOL It's sputtered sprinkles here all say since about 1:30 pm. Still sprinkling. Not enough all day to create puddles though, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 It's pouring. WOHOOO. Rain. .39" so far from this storm combined. Might make .6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Hada nice gulley washer earlier this afternoon between 5-6PM which brought .94" of rainfall within the hour. lol its kinda funny when you get that nice of a rainfall and the rive gauge doesn't budge much, just goes to show you how low the water table must be. It's been so dry for so long, hopefully PA can pick some more up later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 .77" was the storm total. Already beat out July's total. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Rain has really been cranking for about the last hour. Very nice rainfall around here today overall for the grass and plants, heck I might need the lawnmower for the whole yard before the weeks over. We got .50, got .15 earlier in the week, sitting at .65 for the week, and 2.35 in the last two weeks. Drought cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 So tomorrow's my birthday and my wife apparently has some sort of outdoor surprise on the river planned. Yet the forecast isn't conducive to said outdoor/river activities. Anyone who can read models better than I, is tomorrow gonna be a total washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 So tomorrow's my birthday and my wife apparently has some sort of outdoor surprise on the river planned. Yet the forecast isn't conducive to said outdoor/river activities. Anyone who can read models better than I, is tomorrow gonna be a total washout? Model are all over the place but, I would say 1-2" looks like a good bet. Now it might be Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah, that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Officially took my bedroom window A/C out today. Always means I think the extreme heat is done and will be able to suck the cooler night air in with the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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