Roger Smith's summer forecast

[Roger Smith]

Long Range forecast for summer 2011

Last summer, I was able to give a heads up on the heat and drought and sunshine, and Debbie Downer was nowhere to be found.

This summer, Debbie is my summer intern, and things don't look so hot.

With reference to map 1 below, you'll find that I'm predicting below normal temperatures in most of the northern and eastern U.S., with above normal expected across the south central states. An analogue could be 1956, but really, this summer may be in a class of its own for sheer unpleasantness in the north and east. The current set-up that has given so much intense severe weather will only relax slightly and shift north slightly in June and then fade out somewhat in July and August. But its remnant signature will be above normal rainfall as shown in map 2.

I don't expect this to be a very active tropical season, but it could produce one or two strong hurricanes anyway. My predictions for tropical activity are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors. There is probably a better than average chance of a landfall on the east coast, and this in part because while the summer will be crap, the autumn may turn very warm relative to normal. So my east coast landfall scenario would be from late August through early October. I am also expecting one major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this summer, and one in the Caribbean to Bahamas zone.

My predictions for the northeast and Midwest for temperature anomalies are as follows:

JUN ... +0,.2 ... -0.6 (F)

JUL ... -1.0 .... -1.0

AUG ... -0.7 ... -0.5

For OKC, my summer anomaly forecasts are +3, +2 and +2 F

For the west coast north of San Fran, where we are drowning in excessive rainfall, the forecast is for extensive flooding to develop in June because of heavy snowpacks in the Cascades and Coast Ranges (this especially in WA and BC), but quite late in the month as temperatures remain rather cool in early June. The the rest of the summer will become warm and dry under a developing ridge. Anomalies may be slight but the improvement will make it seem like quite a regime change.

Maps follow:

[rainstorm]

good work though i think the summer will be warmer than many expect in the east.