Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here are my random thoughts on today's severe potential: As for severe threat IMO somewhat similar to yesterday's, that is storms and clusters exhibit a SW to NE motion.Training flooding concerns. Wind threat main concern, too especially in any collapsing cells or short lines that may form. Since little W-E flow, development of storms will be tied to local heating, timing of any weak low and ML vorts. WRF and GFS seem to favor CNY and E-CNY west of HV of NYS. HV points east to WNE could see some pulse type or multicell clusters but activity will be localized here due to like yesterday very weak if any forcing. Things start earlier today too non-2pm and end sooner too by 8-10Pm. That's my take for the moment. If the low moving across NY were not filling, the EML would come into play more IMO..shear also less than yesterday closer to 30kts not shabby but not as high as yesterday's. looking at ALY's 12z RAOB the Convective temp is very high 31.8 C, like yesterday No CAP persay but it is near O or slightly positive as opposed to yesterday's totally UNCAPPED airmass. Again if we had any forcing of merit yesterday would have been huge.Waiting on 12z WRF to fine tune things but I'm not too enthused. Severe yes but not widespread stuff. The ALB raob still has pretty decent shear EHI is 2.2 (0-2KM) modifying it with an 83/65 TT/DP CAPE is around 1995 j/kg. LI -6.8 BRN 14 (14-21 is usually HIGH for Supercells). There is a small jet streak on GFS and UK moves just south of CD..thinking BERK may be a good spot today after all. LCL ariound 1200 meters lower than yesterday. Disregarding WRF its fooked up on the frontal boundary placement across NY going with GFLooking at RUC now Conv temps not as low as actually sounding says...still think nonn to 2pm across HV looks good for storms. FCST HODO's do support potential discrete cells, too [*]Still not overly impressed with widespread severe potential but then again I wasn't too right yesterday so confidence today isn't exactly high 'cause its bruised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Thanks as always for your 2 cents...we really appreciate it! No matter what your weather batting average is, it's always a heck of a lot better than the amateurs here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Thanks as always for your 2 cents...we really appreciate it! No matter what your weather batting average is, it's always a heck of a lot better than the amateurs here! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sooo close yet so far with last nights train just to my west. Nice lightning show though. Knew forecast was way too optimistic for warm front to slip back southward and turn winds NNE at GFL. Need a real good storm to get rid of the dreaded pine pollen that is turning my world yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sooo close yet so far with last nights train just to my west. Nice lightning show though. Knew forecast was way too optimistic for warm front to slip back southward and turn winds NNE at GFL. Need a real good storm to get rid of the dreaded pine pollen that is turning my world yellow Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Monday? No...... in this mornings AFD they had the front slipping past GFL this morning with the winds NNE for most of the day.. THEN...ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAINLY N/NE WINDS AT KGFL AT 5-10 KT...IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AT KALB...WINDS MAY INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH...THEN SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT. AT KPOU...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AT 5-10 KT. AGAIN...WINDS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here are my random thoughts on today's severe potential: As for severe threat IMO somewhat similar to yesterday's, that is storms and clusters exhibit a SW to NE motion.Training flooding concerns. Wind threat main concern, too especially in any collapsing cells or short lines that may form. Since little W-E flow, development of storms will be tied to local heating, timing of any weak low and ML vorts. WRF and GFS seem to favor CNY and E-CNY west of HV of NYS. HV points east to WNE could see some pulse type or multicell clusters but activity will be localized here due to like yesterday very weak if any forcing. Things start earlier today too non-2pm and end sooner too by 8-10Pm. That's my take for the moment. Andy, the line that entered Orange last night around 10:05pm collapsed at the state line, I had a 60 mph gust front push past 5 minutes before any precip. Looking forward to some “ left overs” again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Andy, the line that entered Orange last night around 10:05pm collapsed at the state line, I had a 60 mph gust front push past 5 minutes before any precip. Looking forward to some “ left overs” again later. Jay, That gust front kicked up a secondary Q-line across the Taconics as it collapsed, The 2nd line was a prolific hail maker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 So I come home and throw the A/C on full blast in the 84 degree, humid air and 90 min later I go out to throw the garbage in the pail and it's almost sweater weather 60/57 Nice loud compact T-Storm just popped over my neighborhood in the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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