Bust MW/GL/OV Snowstorms

[Ajdos]

Since we have a thread about memorable snow storms, the best of the best, how about the horrible snow storms that missed you,. Expected a foot, got an inch???

Here is my first one, I'am pretty sure a lot of S/E Mi folks remember this storm as being a big bust(FOR DETROIT ESPECIALLY). I still cannot get over it! LOL

Past MW/GL/OV

CZC ARBPNSDTXNOUS43 KDTX 011925PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSNOWFALL REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI220 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008NEW YEARS DAY 2008 WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE SNOWIEST NEW YEARS ON RECORD...BUT ALSO AS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWSTORMS IN RECORDED HISTORY OVER A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. BETWEEN 12 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN A SWATH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM BRIGHTON IN SOUTH LIVINGSTON COUNTY TO LEXINGTON IN SOUTHEAST ST CLAIR COUNTY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERED OFF BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA. A TIGHTLY PACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE VICINITY OF DOWNTOWN DETROIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HEAVY SNOW FELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND FELL STEADILY AT A RATE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 7AM. SNOWFALL RATES ACTUALLY APPROACHED 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM ALONG THE M59 AND I69 CORRIDORS. THERE WERE ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL...INCLUDING THE REPORTS IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT...FELL IN LESS THAN 7 HOURS...MAKING THIS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWS ON RECORD. THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS UNUSUALLY ROBUST AND QUICK HITTING SNOWSTORM.NEW SNOWFALL REPORTS NEW PERIOD STORM

[Stebo]

Since we have a thread about memorable snow storms, the best of the best, how about the horrible snow storms that missed you,. Expected a foot, got an inch???

Here is my first one, I'am pretty sure a lot of S/E Mi folks remember this storm as being a big bust(FOR DETROIT ESPECIALLY). I still cannot get over it! LOL

Past MW/GL/OV

CZC ARBPNSDTXNOUS43 KDTX 011925PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSNOWFALL REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI220 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008NEW YEARS DAY 2008 WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE SNOWIEST NEW YEARS ON RECORD...BUT ALSO AS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWSTORMS IN RECORDED HISTORY OVER A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. BETWEEN 12 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN A SWATH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM BRIGHTON IN SOUTH LIVINGSTON COUNTY TO LEXINGTON IN SOUTHEAST ST CLAIR COUNTY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERED OFF BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA. A TIGHTLY PACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE VICINITY OF DOWNTOWN DETROIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HEAVY SNOW FELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND FELL STEADILY AT A RATE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 7AM. SNOWFALL RATES ACTUALLY APPROACHED 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM ALONG THE M59 AND I69 CORRIDORS. THERE WERE ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL...INCLUDING THE REPORTS IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT...FELL IN LESS THAN 7 HOURS...MAKING THIS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWS ON RECORD. THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS UNUSUALLY ROBUST AND QUICK HITTING SNOWSTORM.NEW SNOWFALL REPORTS NEW PERIOD STORM

That storm I lived at the southern end of the St. Clair river, as you can see we were shaftsburg big time.

[Hoosier]

Plenty of busts but can't think of anything catastrophic at this moment.

[Ajdos]

Plenty of busts but can't think of anything catastrophic at this moment.

Damn, nothing left you heartbroken? LOL

[Stebo]

Damn, nothing left you heartbroken? LOL

If this thing had a crying emoticon it would be needed right now and definitely was needed then.

[Hoosier]

Damn, nothing left you heartbroken? LOL

Sure, but if we're talking about specific major amounts actually being in the forecast and then it not panning out, I can't really think of anything right now. The busts I've been through typically seem to be smaller.

[Hoosier]

If this thing had a crying emoticon it would be needed right now and definitely was needed then.

[Ajdos]

ROFL, honestly I live in the Dry-Slot cap city!!!! LOL,.. Like the next two week look horrible, - "weather hail-loss pattern" LOL.

[brettman320]

Ugh new years of 08......I remember that one like it was yesterday. I think I got like 6 inches from that one which I would normally be happy with but to think just a few miles north of me got over 16 inches. What does 4 inch per hour rates even look like?

[Hoosier]

Ugh new years of 07......I remember that one like it was yesterday. I think I got like 6 inches from that one which I would normally be happy with but to think just a few miles north of me got over 16 inches. What does 4 inch per hour rates even look like?

I've driven through 3-4" per hour LES a couple of times...it was snowing so hard that it sounded like rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

A couple of big busts I remember were February 18, 2000 (expected 8", ended up with 1") and a storm early in Jan 2004 (expecting some type of warning criteria snowfall but ended up with less than 2"). That 2004 one stung because it was supposed to occur on the first day back at school after the Christmas break. I was really stoked for an extended vacation.

[Hoosier]

Wait, I remember. It seemed like in the mid 90's (maybe the winter of 95-96?) there were a few storms that were progged to nail me but then went south at the last minute. There was one in particular where a local met was calling for 7-12" and I don't even think it snowed (or very little if it did).

[cyclone77]

I remember some epic busts back in the 90s before I had the benefit of model forecasting online. At that time most of us (non mets) were at the mercy of NWS and local TV met forecasters. I remember many (but no specific dates) times where we were forecast to receive large amounts of snow only to wake up the next morning to see brown grass. Of course, on the other hand there were many times where we were surprised by heavy snowfall.

[Ajdos]

That storm I lived at the southern end of the St. Clair river, as you can see we were shaftsburg big time.

Honestly that storm was ridiculous. I had family over from Germany, and told them that we were going to receive tons of snow, all excited, and as I was partying for news years went out to check how much we've got so far, and it was all crap, melting, temp was above freezing.. It was a mess, we got about a couple of inches of slush.. I was like "O hell no." what an embarrassment . LOL

[The_Global_Warmer]

I believe it was 2002 or 2003, I can't remember.

but we had a southern low come up and the models predicted 6-8 inches, some predicted slightly more. We had a huge shield of WAA precip from Texas to SOuthern IL. this marched right up to the doorstep about 50 miles or so south of St. Louis and it got stopped there by dry air, 12 hours of it just dying and we got a dusting with 20 min of light snow, the next morning on local news was epic fail.

I feel sorry for them, no one in STL believes the "weatherman" anymore, there are so many busts because of our location, weather forecasting has become a joke here.

then there was December of 04, twice from the same storm they busted, I was at 7-13 inches, didn't get a flake. 50 miles away had a lot. I recall driving that night of the last wave and went from cloudy to light snow 10 miles, snow 20 miles 1-2 inches, 30 miles 3-4 inches, 50 miles 6-8 inches of heavy snow. Stayed out there for a bit came home and people were like WTF? where were you.

[Ajdos]

I also remember a storm it was called the VIRGA STORM (2004)?, everyone was expecting 6-12 inches of snow, and I was looking at the radars the only thing that was there was VIRGA. So, it took 12 hours to saturate the Atmosphere, was supposed to start snowing 6am, started snowing 6 pm. Final total 3".

[A-L-E-K]

I might have the screen grab at home, but it was 2 yrs ago (i think) went to bed with a WSW for 8-10 inches or so, woke up and saw the bust coming, LOT for some reason doubled down and increased my area to 9-13". I got an inch at most. Luckily i still ended that winter above average and it wasn't as much a bust as a classic old school LOT winter storm fail, they've gotten better.

[Chicago WX]

Maybe not a bust exactly, as the writing was on the wall 24 hours out, but Nov 30-Dec 1, 2006 sticks out for me. Pretty good model agreement at 2-4 days out that LAF would be in the cross hairs of an early season big dumping. But slowly, or maybe instantly...I refuse to recall the exact details, the models turned for the worst. I made a back up plan and headed up north to IKK. Of course I ended up being not far enough north or west even up there...but at least IKK saw a couple of inches...LAF finished with some consolation snow showers after a good amount of rainfall.

[Powerball]

If this thing had a crying emoticon it would be needed right now and definitely was needed then.

+1

Definteily one of the worst busts in history.

But the 5" surprise (to me) in 2 hours on February 6th, 2008 surely made up for it. Also, Justice was ultimately served with March 4th-5th, 2008 storm. Basically the areas that got hit good on New Years busted horridly and the areas that got shafted had quite a bit of fun.

NOUS43 KDTX 071654

PNSDTX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SUMMARY

SNOWFALL REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1154 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

A STRONG DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS THE DRIVING FORCE

BEHIND AN OBSTINATE WINTER PRECIPITATION EPISODE FROM TUESDAY

FEBRUARY 5TH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY 7TH. THE FIRST DEVELOPED SURFACE

CYCLONE TRACKED THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING

OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHILE

MOST NORTHERN LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW...

THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SOUTH OF M 59 MEASURED GREATER THAN ONE

INCH OF RAINFALL. A TRAILING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPED WEDNESDAY OVER

THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN A SLIGHTLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT

BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE

WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS FAR

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUBDUED AT GENERALLY

3 INCHES OR LESS. FOR THE AREA ALONG THE IRISH HILLS AND

NORTHWARD...A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL RESULTED. WIDESPREAD

AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL OAKLAND/MACOMB/LIVINGSTON

COUNTIES TO 16 AND 18 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN SAGINAW RIVER VALLEY.

ZCZC ARBPNSDTX

NOUS43 KDTX 051503

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-051554-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SUMMARY

SNOWFALL REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1003 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ORIGINATING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF

COAST...TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON

TUESDAY. GULF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM...FOUGHT OFF A DEEP

LAYER OF DRY AIR TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR

SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BATTLE BETWEEN THE

DRY AND MOIST AIRMASSES CAUSED WIDELY VARYING MEASUREMENTS FROM

SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. MUCH OF THE AFFECTED AREAS EXPERIENCED

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RANGED FROM

10 INCHES FOR DOWNRIVER TO AN INCH OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS IN GENESEE

AND LAPEER COUNTIES.

[Powerball]

The Detroit superbowl storm was a horrid bust too.

[Ajdos]

The Detroit superbowl storm was a horrid bust too.

O hell yeah, that one was huge...

[michsnowfreak]

ROFL, honestly I live in the Dry-Slot cap city!!!! LOL,.. Like the next two week look horrible, - "weather hail-loss pattern" LOL.

Maybe this will be good luck. I heard this same stuff "next 2 weeks look horrible..." just a few days ago from many who are now expected to get snow with this clipper. Odds are very high we will get a blanket of snow.

As to the thread, January 1, 2008 was definitely top on my list. Had a TOTAL of 1.8" here however it actually changed to RAIN if you can believe that. In the end we had an inch of crusty snow on the ground. I actually drove to Ann Arbor, and they had a good 7-8". The main thing that eased the pain was that it came in a 78-inch winter here. Plus, we had a "good" bust imby on the mar 4/5, 2008 storm.

[michsnowfreak]

A couple of big busts I remember were February 18, 2000 (expected 8", ended up with 1") and a storm early in Jan 2004 (expecting some type of warning criteria snowfall but ended up with less than 2"). That 2004 one stung because it was supposed to occur on the first day back at school after the Christmas break. I was really stoked for an extended vacation.

Feb 18, 2000 I remember well. They closed school in ANTICIPATION of the 8-12" forecast. The storm was like 8 hours late, didnt even start snowing til midday, and we ended up with 5" imby (4" at DTW). Same with Jan 3/4, 2004. Expected 6-12", got 4". The one plus was this laid down snowcover that would last through late Feb. The bad news, this was our best chance at a major snowstorm that winter. We would end up with our biggest storm, 5.8", being from a clipper (that actually dropped 10-11" north of Detroit. This was the first "super clipper" I can recall, but since then there have been several more).

[michsnowfreak]

+1

Definteily one of the worst busts in history.

But the 5" surprise (to me) in 2 hours on February 6th, 2008 surely made up for it. Also, Justice was ultimately served with March 4th-5th, 2008 storm. Basically the areas that got hit good on New Years busted horridly and the areas that got shafted had quite a bit of fun.

Yep! The Mar 4/5, 2008 storm was awesome. 10.3" imby. THREE rounds of INTENSE thundersnow. And as you can see from the graphic, very few of my friends in SE MI could share the fun lol. To this day one of my favorite storms.

[michsnowfreak]

O hell yeah, that one was huge...

Yeah. DTW ended up with 2". I was "lucky" enough to score 3.6" due to a late band. Forecast was 6-10". It was a very scenic wet snow, but a very miserable bust.

Yuck, enough about these bad busts lol!

[Powerball]

One good thing I can say about the New Years storm was the 2" per hour snowfall rates for one hour.

It also started as rain here.

[wishforsnow]

The recent bust I can remember was 12/21/2007. The NWS put out a heavy snow warning out for us for two feet of synoptic snow. They issued this at 5 pm. By 10 pm they canceled it because a bunch of warm air invaded the area and it turned to rain south of here. It moved into this area and rained all night. We had a decent snow cover from the lake effect that had occurred the first half of the month. This was a bad time for the snowmobile trails due to all the snowmobilers coming up for during Christmas.

[michsnowfreak]

The recent bust I can remember was 12/21/2007. The NWS put out a heavy snow warning out for us for two feet of synoptic snow. They issued this at 5 pm. By 10 pm they canceled it because a bunch of warm air invaded the area and it turned to rain south of here. It moved into this area and rained all night. We had a decent snow cover from the lake effect that had occurred the first half of the month. This was a bad time for the snowmobile trails due to all the snowmobilers coming up for during Christmas.

I remember that warm spell here. After being slammed with a beautiful 10-inch snowstorm on Dec 16th, warm air invaded and the deep snowpack disappeared on the 22nd, and as soon as it did, the cold returned. What looked like a sure White Christmas wasnt (we did get a dusting Christmas Eve, but still). Again though, cant complain too much about the 2007-08 winter!