Summer Analogs

[bluewave]

Summer analogs...

[uncle W]

good luck bluewave...I am concerned this year will be another warm one based on the very high minimums we have been seeing this Spring...We haven't seen extreme heat like the 92 on this date last year but it's on the warm side...The analogs I liked in March 1956, 1967 and 1996 might still pan out...67 was above normla in June...I hope it's not a rainy cool Summer but it's better than last years heat stroke weather...

[bluewave]

good luck bluewave...I am concerned this year will be another warm one based on the very high minimums we have been seeing this Spring...We haven't seen extreme heat like the 92 on this date last year but it's on the warm side...The analogs I liked in March 1956, 1967 and 1996 might still pan out...67 was above normla in June...I hope it's not a rainy cool Summer but it's better than last years heat stroke weather...

Thanks,Uncle.We'll see how things work out.

[A-L-E-X]

good luck bluewave...I am concerned this year will be another warm one based on the very high minimums we have been seeing this Spring...We haven't seen extreme heat like the 92 on this date last year but it's on the warm side...The analogs I liked in March 1956, 1967 and 1996 might still pan out...67 was above normla in June...I hope it's not a rainy cool Summer but it's better than last years heat stroke weather...

Meh warm mins dont impress me as far as heat is concerned-- hot summer is supposed to be about the number of 90 degree days

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks,Uncle.We'll see how things work out.

BW, nice work! Two things if you could-- number one could you do a similar color coded map for the top 30+ 90 degree day summers at NYC and the year after and also could you do an 11 year cycle summer map plus the years after (that is, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010). Thanks!

[bluewave]

BW, nice work! Two things if you could-- number one could you do a similar color coded map for the top 30+ 90 degree day summers at NYC and the year after and also could you do an 11 year cycle summer map plus the years after (that is, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010). Thanks!

Thanks.Since the warmest summers on record had a large number of 90 degree days,the maps are very similar.

[nzucker]

good luck bluewave...I am concerned this year will be another warm one based on the very high minimums we have been seeing this Spring...We haven't seen extreme heat like the 92 on this date last year but it's on the warm side...The analogs I liked in March 1956, 1967 and 1996 might still pan out...67 was above normla in June...I hope it's not a rainy cool Summer but it's better than last years heat stroke weather...

I think I'm also on the slightly warmer than normal train but I could see it go either way. I have the ridge farther east than bluewave in terms of my summer forecast thinking.

[Isotherm]

Good work bluewave. Whenever I see a thread started by you I know it's going to be informative, and your analog threads have been pretty accurate recently IIRC. You're one of the more underrated posters on this board.

My summer outlook has the center of cool anomalies further north than your final composite map, with a slightly warmer look along the East Coast. IMO the first half of summer could be pretty warm, hot at times, in our area, but the big theme of the summer will be high humidity (with yes high overnight mins) and plenty of rainfall. +AMO will help us remain warmer than most post-nina analog years from the 70s and 80s. I'm more along the lines of 2008 in terms of progression and departures.

[nzucker]

Good work bluewave. Whenever I see a thread started by you I know it's going to be informative, and your analog threads have been pretty accurate recently IIRC. You're one of the more underrated posters on this board.

My summer outlook has the center of cool anomalies further north than your final composite map, with a slightly warmer look along the East Coast. IMO the first half of summer could be pretty warm, hot at times, in our area, but the big theme of the summer will be high humidity (with yes high overnight mins) and plenty of rainfall. +AMO will help us remain warmer than most post-nina analog years from the 70s and 80s. I'm more along the lines of 2008 in terms of progression and departures.

18z GFS has a very cool pattern for the start of the summer after Wednesday. Keeps the 10C contour south of us for basically the entire run with an NAO block building in.

[Isotherm]

18z GFS has a very cool pattern for the start of the summer after Wednesday. Keeps the 10C contour south of us for basically the entire run with an NAO block building in.

Yeah I noticed.

But I think it's interesting to note both NAO and AO observations have been much more positive than progged in the medium-long range. Note the obs vs forecast below. Even the D7 forecasts have been busting too negative wrt NAO/AO values. ATM I see that long term trough progged by the GFS in the Northeast as BS and usual GFS tendency to go crazy with pulling troughs out of nowhere, but we'll see.

http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml

[nzucker]

Yeah I noticed.

But I think it's interesting to note both NAO and AO observations have been much more positive than progged in the medium-long range. Note the obs vs forecast below. Even the D7 forecasts have been busting too negative wrt NAO/AO values. ATM I see that long term trough progged by the GFS in the Northeast as BS and usual GFS tendency to go crazy with pulling troughs out of nowhere, but we'll see.

http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml

Yeah, the GFS has been crap with long-range forecasting of the NAO/AO, which has remained more positive than predicted for months now. Remember the big -NAO comeback in February? Never happened! Remember the big -NAO with highs in the 40s and snow up north during early May, a la 1977? Never happened, low went west of us and we were above average! Since the dissipation of the blocking after the 1/27 Nor'easter, it's had a tough time reappearing, despite signals on the GEFS/GFS that it might. Except for one incidence in late March, we really haven't had a stout Greenland block post 1/27. The La Nina took over once and for all, and we'll see if we can get the high-latitude ridging back for next winter, but I think we may need more help from El Nino than we're likely to get.

[Thunderdude]

Yeah, the GFS has been crap with long-range forecasting of the NAO/AO, which has remained more positive than predicted for months now. Remember the big -NAO comeback in February? Never happened! Remember the big -NAO with highs in the 40s and snow up north during early May, a la 1977? Never happened, low went west of us and we were above average! Since the dissipation of the blocking after the 1/27 Nor'easter, it's had a tough time reappearing, despite signals on the GEFS/GFS that it might. Except for one incidence in late March, we really haven't had a stout Greenland block post 1/27. The La Nina took over once and for all, and we'll see if we can get the high-latitude ridging back for next winter, but I think we may need more help from El Nino than we're likely to get.

I never trust in the long range GFS and it is good in the short range but in the long range it loves bring in the blocking pattern for the northeast and I do believe we will see few days with below average temps and eventually the pattern will be more progressive I think it will eventually get warmer and more humid but if not we could see one or two cool rainy day with possible cut off lows depending where it locates and hopefully no noreasters happen. I can't stand noreasters in the warm season. Let them happen in the winter when they suppose to happen when they bring the big snows. After a potiential a cool rainy days then I am sure within a week or so after the cool down average to above average temps will return with the humidity as well. That was all proven before when well-below average temps were suppose to happen in February and late April and early May with big -NAO block. Don't trust that at all. Just several cool pleasant day with one nasty cool rainy day possible before summer weather does return and then hopefully some severe thunderstorm chances will come.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, the GFS has been crap with long-range forecasting of the NAO/AO, which has remained more positive than predicted for months now. Remember the big -NAO comeback in February? Never happened! Remember the big -NAO with highs in the 40s and snow up north during early May, a la 1977? Never happened, low went west of us and we were above average! Since the dissipation of the blocking after the 1/27 Nor'easter, it's had a tough time reappearing, despite signals on the GEFS/GFS that it might. Except for one incidence in late March, we really haven't had a stout Greenland block post 1/27. The La Nina took over once and for all, and we'll see if we can get the high-latitude ridging back for next winter, but I think we may need more help from El Nino than we're likely to get.

If we do have a neutral for next winter, there's a potential for disaster-- a la 89-90 or 01-02. Good news is that the chances for an el nino in the winter after that are pretty good.

[bluewave]

Good work bluewave. Whenever I see a thread started by you I know it's going to be informative, and your analog threads have been pretty accurate recently IIRC. You're one of the more underrated posters on this board.

My summer outlook has the center of cool anomalies further north than your final composite map, with a slightly warmer look along the East Coast. IMO the first half of summer could be pretty warm, hot at times, in our area, but the big theme of the summer will be high humidity (with yes high overnight mins) and plenty of rainfall. +AMO will help us remain warmer than most post-nina analog years from the 70s and 80s. I'm more along the lines of 2008 in terms of progression and departures.

Thanks for the kind words Isotherm.You have done well with your seasonal thoughts and I enjoy reading your threads.