patrick7032 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah, looking at the models this evening things have changed from being heavy on capping to a bustable cap now. Hope it happens....like what tony said too....has my attention enough to buy the net while at 33,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Add the ARW in too. The RUC is a contrarian, though. It instead paints warm-frontal supercells by 21z across nrn IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The RUC is a contrarian, though. It instead paints warm-frontal supercells by 21z across nrn IN. RUC fizzles them out pretty fast, but this is a change from a few hours ago where it was showing nothing firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Interesting the Day 3 including a large hatched area over the 15% probabilities DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEAMPLIFICATION ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN CANADA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING PORTION STALLS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES...MODERATE MLCAPE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. IT APPEARS REMNANT EML PLUME COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG CAP...BUT DEEPER FORCING WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ALONG GREAT LAKES PORTION OF FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH WI...UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI. THIS FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SRN PLAINS... AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG SWD EXTENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE IS ALSO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER CAP. A FEW MULTICELL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE CONCERNS SUGGEST MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ...NERN STATES... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT REMNANT EML WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN A CAP. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MIGHT STILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN POTENTIALLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 05/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Our MCS/possible Derecho is getting its act together in S Iowa, already a few severe warnings out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Our MCS/possible Derecho is getting its act together in S Iowa, already a few severe warnings out there right now. Yep. Incredible dense fog here right now, not the classic pre-derecho weather i'm used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yep. Incredible dense fog here right now, not the classic pre-derecho weather i'm used to. Stuff is like pea soup. Unreal for late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Stuff is like pea soup. Unreal for late May. being on the lake, we've had this almost every other day. back to the organizing mcs, i'm skeptical if the llj and advancing instability will be enough to maintain it into northern Illinois, i think the damaging wind threat will be confined along and south of I80. I do like watching them mature though. Looks like a min waa wing east of des moines with what will be the comma more or less over des moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wow, good thing I didn't stay up for the 6z outlook last night because if I saw that description, no way I would have gotten any sleep after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC has greatly expanded the slight risk area. There's now a 30% wind area and a 5% tornado area stretching through Northern Illinois/Ohio/Indiana and Southern Michigan. We are looking to have some decent daytime heating before it arrives too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC has greatly expanded the slight risk area. There's now a 30% wind area and a 5% tornado area stretching through Northern Illinois/Ohio/Indiana and Southern Michigan. We are looking to have some decent daytime heating before it arrives too. I'm pretty excited for this one. Only thing I see going wrong is that I may get missed to the south, but really, that's just splitting hairs. Someone is going to get a big damaging wind event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 MCS continuing to organize with decent bow structure west of Ottumwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yep. Incredible dense fog here right now, not the classic pre-derecho weather i'm used to. Yeah we have the haze and fog here too, although not nearly as dense as you guys. To me this is more of pre tornado weather than pre derecho weather, just going by past instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 MCS continuing to organize with decent bow structure west of Ottumwa. Yeah, I gotta drive from Elkhart to Highland IN early this afternoon to visit relatives for the holiday. May have some nasty storms to contend with on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah we have the haze and fog here too, although not nearly as dense as you guys. To me this is more of pre tornado weather than pre derecho weather, just going by past instances. complex is absolutely exploding on WV/IR and starting to pop a couple warnings. i think we see a watch downstream before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 complex is absolutely exploding on WV/IR and starting to pop a couple warnings. i think we see a watch downstream before too long. Yeah I dont think this thing falls apart through N IL. The only concern I'd have is missing both Chicago and Detroit to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 In the latest update the SPC has narrowed down the 5% tornado area and adjusted it northward. It's in line with the 30% wind area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm headed up to IKK for a family party taking place this afternoon. It's usually an outdoor deal, so looks like this year I'm going to have to play weatherman and make sure everyone gets inside before this possible derecho hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why is there a seperate MI thread from the other one... this thread is unneeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why is there a seperate MI thread from the other one... this thread is unneeded. Basically because it said PLAINS and I wanted to prevent the bull**** that happened last time from happening again. It doesn't frankly care how the topics are arranged, I just want to discuss the weather without the whining about how people are posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Looks like I'm sitting in an, um, interesting position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah I dont think this thing falls apart through N IL. The only concern I'd have is missing both Chicago and Detroit to the south. Yep, although the HRRR has consistently shown it making a north turn in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The first of what may be many similar reports today... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 817 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0755 AM TSTM WND DMG KNOXVILLE 41.32N 93.10W 05/29/2011 MARION IA LAW ENFORCEMENT NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN KNOXVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 New WAA wing stretching from Galesburg to south of Iowa City. I suspected a miss south earlier, but I'm starting to think it has no problem lifting a little more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yep, although the HRRR has consistently shown it making a north turn in a few hours. Yeah and looking at the Mesoanalysis I would have to agree that it should move ENE as we go along in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm not sure where this idea is coming from about Chicago and Detroit missing that MCS over Iowa to the north. All current indications suggests otherwise (WSW flow aloft, rising heights, etc.). If nothing else I would be afraid that at least Detroit missed it just to the south or it weakens as it encounters the increasingly capped environment, but otherwise both places are in the B-line for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 new MD really highlighting derecho potential, bullseye Cook County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN MO...NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN IND...SRN LAKE MI...SW LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 291339Z - 291445Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO NRN IND AND THE LINE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A ENEWD STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING-LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITH THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41479363 40969388 40489357 40259241 40569043 40888848 41228622 41828574 42358577 42888619 43048714 42978842 42779084 42449239 41479363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The warnings in Iowa are for winds in excess of 70 MPH and ping pong-sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah that squall line out in Iowa has that look to it like it's gonna rip for hours. Developing WAA wing south of the QC as well. Things could get real interesting around here in another hour or two. EDIT: Woops, didn't realize this thread was for the GL lol, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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