Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 700mb temps of 15-16C in that area. also some SERIOUS juice....wow. It's not even in the thunderstorm risk outline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Some pictures from the elevated supercell in West Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 SPC meso out for OK and sw MO...storms may continue to fire with possibility of a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 HRRR blows up a storm across West Central Missouri here in the next couple hours - been showing it for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 also some SERIOUS juice....wow. It's not even in the thunderstorm risk outline I see Gilbert is already heading back home. Good decision... ...Though the better decision would have been not to chase, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Oh well, not all was lost. I at least got a nice hailer earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I see Gilbert is already heading back home. Good decision... ...Though the better decision would have been not to chase, but that's just me. Yeah I was all ready to go late last night, but this morning things didn't look very good on the RUC and HRRR. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah I was all ready to go late last night, but this morning things didn't look very good on the RUC and HRRR. What a waste. Yeah, not the greatest, but I knew if I didnt go, there would be a tor, so I took the gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I see Gilbert is already heading back home. Good decision... ...Though the better decision would have been not to chase, but that's just me. Yep I'm glad we decided not to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 MN BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 239 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT * AT 234 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR GAYLORD... Was on this storm from the get go, Saw a few dozen chasers out surprisingly. It never really produced other then the initial brief spin up but it felt good to see weak some rotation in the sky. Lots of hail though with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The RUC with a ton of instability tomorrow along and south of the warm front but the cap should hold for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 another waste of great parameters....screw the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 incredible lake effect stabilization on that last image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 as of now I will be planning on doing some Colorado chasing and see some potential especially on Sunday just East of Denver. not much going on so I will post this: but he is on this cell COC041-290230- /O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110529T0230Z/ EL PASO CO- 811 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM MDT... AT 806 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSH...OR 36 MILES EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUSH. RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 ILstormchser reported the tornado gustnado or possible tornado 5 sw of this location. sustained inflow of 40-45 mph into the feature in question BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 854 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO * UNTIL 945 PM MDT * AT 853 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF BOYERO...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF LIMON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 another waste of great parameters....screw the cap. This is starting to look more and more like it will be small or non-event for the Midwest (East of MN) tomorrow, the capping will just be too much I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah, not the greatest, but I knew if I didnt go, there would be a tor, so I took the gamble. Yeah I was going back and forth all morning whether to go or not. One moment I was convinced surface based initiation would occur, and the next I'd be convinced the cap would hold. Before I knew it, it was early afternoon and it was too late to make it to the target area. It could have went either way in my mind. Despite its recent record, if I would have seen more action displayed on the HRRR I would have been heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Tomorrow is a typical scenario for eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Good deep layer shear and strong instability, but also a strong cap in place with H7 temps getting pretty toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 While it is risky, we are thinking about playing the dryline in Southwest/West Central Kansas tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 While it is risky, we are thinking about playing the dryline in Southwest/West Central Kansas tomorrow. I'm going to keep an eye on the parameters for tomorrow. I may venture out to Kansas, but the likelihood is quite small at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hot damn... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS THE PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES...RESULTING IN A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX S PLAINS. FARTHER N...STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND SHOULD PERSIST EWD ALONG/N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO IA AND NRN IL. WHILE HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS...UPPER HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AN INTENSE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FOCUS A SECONDARY AREA OF NOCTURNAL SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF SD/ND AND WRN MN. ..MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN MO/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEING FORCED MAINLY BY WARM ADVECTION NEAR A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IS EXPECTED TO HELP STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES...FEEDING A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INDICATIONS ARE A CONCENTRATED SWATCH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA...AND PROCEEDING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE MAY DISRUPT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AREAS OF ROTATION MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP LOADING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ..SRN PLAINS DRYLINE STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN EROSION OF INHIBITION AND LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS INTO W TX THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE W...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BACKED AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEPLY MIXED BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...GIVEN LOW SUB CLOUD RH...AS WELL AS SHORT HODOGRAPHS AND LACK OF STORM TILT...LEADING TO PRECIPITATION LOADING. A NARROW THREAT ZONE IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN SLOW FORECAST STORM MOTIONS AND FOCUSED UNCAPPED DRYLINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hot damn... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS THE PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES...RESULTING IN A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX S PLAINS. FARTHER N...STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND SHOULD PERSIST EWD ALONG/N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO IA AND NRN IL. WHILE HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS...UPPER HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AN INTENSE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FOCUS A SECONDARY AREA OF NOCTURNAL SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF SD/ND AND WRN MN. ..MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN MO/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEING FORCED MAINLY BY WARM ADVECTION NEAR A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IS EXPECTED TO HELP STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES...FEEDING A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INDICATIONS ARE A CONCENTRATED SWATCH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA...AND PROCEEDING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE MAY DISRUPT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AREAS OF ROTATION MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP LOADING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ..SRN PLAINS DRYLINE STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN EROSION OF INHIBITION AND LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS INTO W TX THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE W...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BACKED AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEPLY MIXED BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...GIVEN LOW SUB CLOUD RH...AS WELL AS SHORT HODOGRAPHS AND LACK OF STORM TILT...LEADING TO PRECIPITATION LOADING. A NARROW THREAT ZONE IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN SLOW FORECAST STORM MOTIONS AND FOCUSED UNCAPPED DRYLINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hmm Chicago in a slight risk, I believe that is a payout on a bet Nice to see MI staying in the risk too, if we were to get convection to fire into a MCS, it would ride that instability/capping right through Chicago into S. Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC WRF, NSSL WRF, and NAM all basically try to paint a derecho tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 This is starting to look more and more like it will be small or non-event for the Midwest (East of MN) tomorrow, the capping will just be too much I fear. I disagree.....definitely a somewhat decent potential....nice to see the 5% tor 30% wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I disagree.....definitely a somewhat decent potential....nice to see the 5% tor 30% wind probs. Yeah, looking at the models this evening things have changed from being heavy on capping to a bustable cap now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah, looking at the models this evening things have changed from being heavy on capping to a bustable cap now. It's not even that so much...the game has changed majorly over the past 24 hours...we are now dealing with a classic progressive derecho situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC WRF, NSSL WRF, and NAM all basically try to paint a derecho tomorrow. Add the ARW in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It's not even that so much...the game has changed majorly over the past 24 hours...we are now dealing with a classic progressive derecho situation... Yeah very true, hell on SPC 4km WRF it goes from MO all the way to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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