L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 My WRF EMS model has something breaking out at 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Here is St. Louis' WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I'm hoping to go chasing on Sunday. I'M RIGHT THERE WITH YA....I land at metro at 9:18am to see my daughter Sunday and Monday....she loves chasing too so if it happens will be on it.....definitely looking possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I like what BT said from DTX....totally agree WITH HIM.... A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS LATER SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE DETAILS OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY IN TERMS OF LINGERING SHOWERS, CLOUD COVER, AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN VALID SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SURFACE WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARM FRONT INTO SE MICHIGAN, AT LEAST UP TO THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR. MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE RELATIVELY SLOW ARRIVAL OF CAPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SHOT AT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAY. SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER PUSHING 40 KNOTS LOOKS BOTTOM HEAVY ENOUGH FOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND LINEAR MODES OF CONVECTION AS CLUSTERS MATURE WITH TIME. DEVELOPMENT LOCKED ON THE WARM FRONT WOULD ALSO ENJOY 0-3 KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 WITH ML CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN ARE CENTERED AROUND SURFACE HEATING POTENTIAL AND ANY ADDITIONAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO ARRIVAL OF CAPPING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE IN A CONDITIONAL SENSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 STL area looking more and more intersting SSE surface winds, 35 KT LLJ, 50KT at 700mb, and 55kt at 500 out of the west sun should be fully out by 1pm all models break the CAP now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titleist_03 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 STL area looking more and more intersting SSE surface winds, 35 KT LLJ, 50KT at 700mb, and 55kt at 500 out of the west sun should be fully out by 1pm all models break the CAP now Sun breaking through in central Missouri already. The northern Indiana wrf is similar to the LSX with precip breaking out west of STL, but it doesn't have the development closer to downtown and east of river. *Sun now starting to peak through here just east of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 STL area looking more and more intersting SSE surface winds, 35 KT LLJ, 50KT at 700mb, and 55kt at 500 out of the west sun should be fully out by 1pm all models break the CAP now I tell ya it's my Birthday weekend, something's gonna happen it may be a hailstorm but almost always you see a storm this weekend... I don't know if it's just luck or what but storms seem to love the weekend just around my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO IL/IND ..MN/WI A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...INCLUDING ONE OVER WESTERN ND/SD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT MN/WI LATER TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN MN BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NORTHERN WI...AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES AND FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FROM EASTERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION MIGHT AID DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS CAN FORM...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OR ORGANIZED OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK AXIS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FROM KS INTO IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 already a severe cell over north-central MO... looks like the cap could be starting to errode a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 big time elevated supercell near Paris, MO probably dropping some big hail....70dbz to up 30kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Forbes seems less then impressed... Dr. Greg Forbes SUNDAY It's a hard forecast, as upper-air forcing looks minimal. Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly with hail, along the front in south MI. There could be very isolated severe thunderstorms elsewhere along the front in northern New England, upstate NY, south WI, north IL, IA, north NE. Seems like it may be a little dry for isolated severe in southeast WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 big time elevated supercell near Paris, MO probably dropping some big hail....70dbz to up 30kft. grae has a 3" hail reading on that sucker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 now GRAE has 4.86" hail progged in that hail core.. I've never seen values that high before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 make that 80dbz up to 20kft...geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 make that 80dbz up to 20kft...geez That's probably not at 20kft...with the inversion in place, you're going to get more beam bending than normal, meaning that the radar will be sampling lower than the program indicates. The 80dBz return is still very impressive, but it's not at 20kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 going TBSS crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1003.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Even as impressive as the storm looks, lapse rates are fairly weak and that supports the storm reports we are getting of generally 1.5" hail or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 4.96" hail marker on that baby now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 sorry for all the images but this is unreal impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Even as impressive as the storm looks, lapse rates are fairly weak and that supports the storm reports we are getting of generally 1.5" hail or less. all storm reports have NOT been from the heart of the hail core either.... all been from fringe areas around the core looking at GRAE, we should get a core reading soon as the core is heading for Vandalia and Bowling Green, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah there's no doubt this thing is dropping at least baseballs, if not larger somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah there's no doubt this thing is dropping at least baseballs, if not larger somewhere. Yeah lapse rates or not, I'd have to imagine the hail is >1.50" with this probably closer to 2.50-3.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah there's no doubt this thing is dropping at least baseballs, if not larger somewhere. yeah... we should get an idea in the next few minutes as the hail core goes right over Vandalia, and then Bowling Green, both pretty good sized towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah there's no doubt this thing is dropping at least baseballs, if not larger somewhere. Actually I kinda doubt it. Given the environmental conditions, the superrefraction of the radar beam, and the lack of a TBSS on this cell, I mean I can see maybe 2" hail, but I kinda doubt baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Actually I kinda doubt it. Given the environmental conditions, the superrefraction of the radar beam, and the lack of a TBSS on this cell, I mean I can see maybe 2" hail, but I kinda doubt baseballs. I figured we would have heard reports of it by now, although its had a TBSS on it at the 1.5 tilt for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Visible SAT showing hints of warm sector surging north with leading edge around STL...the storm is now moving due east with hints of a hair just south of east movement at time.. it may tap surface based/near surface based parcels soon if it hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I figured we would have heard reports of it by now, although its had a TBSS on it at the 1.5 tilt for quite awhile. Hail spike showed up on 0.5 tilt for a while too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Northern Ontario ==DISCUSSION== SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 70 KM/H AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERATED BY WEAK ROTATION UNDER RAPIDLY GROWING CLOUDS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEAK ROTATION IS NORMALLY NOT A DANGER NEAR THE GROUND. HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THIS ROTATION COULD INTENSIFY TO BECOME A WEAK LANDSPOUT TORNADO. A LANDSPOUT IS SIMILAR TO A WATERSPOUT IN BOTH APPEARANCE AND IMPACT, BUT OCCURS OVER LAND AND NOT WATER, HENCE THE NAME. ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL OR LANDSPOUT TORNADOES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE PROMPTLY ISSUED. LANDSPOUT TORNADOES DO NOT USUALLY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE BUT CAN STILL BE DANGEROUS. THEY CAN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TOPPLE TREES, DAMAGE ROOFS OR TOSS DEBRIS SHORT DISTANCES. TREAT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING SERIOUSLY. SHOULD A FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOP NEARBY TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER, THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS USUALLY APPEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. END/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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