jcwxguy Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 thats awesome nice jump in temps as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 thats awesome nice jump in temps as well Yeah the warm front felt great this morning. After yesterdays junky upslope stratus and drizzle with highs in the 50s it was beautiful this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 As expected SPC moved the slight and moderate a bit W across much of Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 SPC just requested an 18Z sounding from us. I may launch twice today! Baro, since it looks like MPX didn't send one up it seems at 12z, due to storms I would guess, will they release later or at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Baro, since it looks like MPX didn't send one up it seems at 12z, due to storms I would guess, will they release later or at 18z? Yeah in the collaborative chat they asked both LBF and MPX and MPX agreed for an 18z launch (it is ultimately up to each office). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 That's certainly a nice jet streak getting ready to nose into the western High Plains: The 12z sounding from LBF shows there is obviously an impressive cap in place over the warm sector which won't break until the 500mb jet streak moves over the region, but looks nice once you cool those mid level temps some and speed up the mid level winds like will happen later. The lack of turning between the surface and 500mb is a bit concerning, though, so it will be somewhat important for the surface winds to back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The RUC really cranks up the low-level jet early this evening over Nebraska. A nice wide swath of 60kt+ winds straight out of the south at 850mb! I'm still favoring the area north or northwest of Grand Island, maybe near Broken Bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The RUC really cranks up the low-level jet early this evening over Nebraska. A nice wide swath of 60kt+ winds straight out of the south at 850mb! I'm still favoring the area north or northwest of Grand Island, maybe near Broken Bow. 18Z sounding about to go up here. I am heading to BBW shortly after I get off at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 We will be in or near Bartlett, NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Best of luck to the chasers. From what SPC said, sounds like the window for tornadic activity will be brief, but possibly intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 RUC going low-level shear crazy by 0z in NE, holy smokes, sfc winds back nicely in that area between 21z-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 timmer is going to nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 17Z SMART Severe Analysis showing the highest instability in and around Norfolk, NE to Brookings, SD to Broken Bow, NE and Red Wood Fall, MN, with Norfolk, NE in the highest threat for Tornadic potential. Seeing values at this hour of SFC CAPE: 2739 j/kg, 0-3KM Shear 57.5 knots, LI's -8.2, 0-1KM SRH 283. Also Potential for convective winds of 83 knots, and hail 1.2" in diameter. Detailed analysis at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 18Z sounding about to go up here. I am heading to BBW shortly after I get off at 1. Headed that way myself. Currently about halfway there from GRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Best of luck to the chasers. From what SPC said, sounds like the window for tornadic activity will be brief, but possibly intense. Considering the strength of the low level wind fields I would say so. It will line out quickly, but the initial supercells are playing with a lot of S/SSE winds gusting to 30 knots over eastern Nebraska/S. Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Headed that way myself. Currently about halfway there from GRI. Yeah I am just heading out right now! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Judging from the environment that is percolating and the current satellite presentation over Nebraska, I would think a MCD is coming shortly. Short term/hi-res models continue to suggest initiation within the next 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301840Z - 302015Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON /LIKELY BY 20Z/. 18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN SD BETWEEN HURON AND ABERDEEN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN NEB NEAR/WEST OF NORTH PLATTE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTING AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED CU FIELD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB/. WITH STRONGER DPVA/IMPLIED ASCENT NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/ INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CINH AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SOME TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD ULTIMATELY CONGEAL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 05/30/2011 Literally right as I hit enter on my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Wide area of 30 to 40% area in western Minnesota at 10 pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Yeah I am just heading out right now! Good luck! Same to you! I'm stopped in Ansley now, pondering hedging a bit more N toward Taylor-Chambers. Tough balance trying to avoid moisture mixing issues S and more meridional flow N. Really pulling for the RUC's consolidated secondary sfc low locally backing winds and enlarging hodos in this general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Team CoD is in BBW for now. cu just E and NE of LBF looks like it might be ready to take off soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Team CoD is in BBW for now. cu just E and NE of LBF looks like it might be ready to take off soon. Yep looking ready to blow over the past 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Blah, hopefully these Cu can keep stewing for another couple hours before initiation... I never like tornado potential much on days when initiation is before ~20-21z, except in the most dynamic setups EDIT: Too late, I guess... time to work with what we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Latest 3 km KWRF is developing supercells on the tail end of a line over Custer and Dawson counties in Nebraska in a few hours. http://www.sanfordlabs.com/lbf/wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Latest 3 km KWRF is developing supercells on the tail end of a line over Custer and Dawson counties in Nebraska in a few hours. http://www.sanfordlabs.com/lbf/wrf And it looks like initiation taking place west of Broken Bow. 50 dBZ around the freezing level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Shear is still somewhat unidirectional... Things look a little better a bit north of NE, towards the far eastern Dakotas into MN closer to the warm front/surface low, but things don't quite look ready to go there yet as the cap appears stronger. The strong tornado threat will probably peak in a few hours when surface winds start to back and the low level jet picks up, assuming things don't go linear too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This is screaming bust already, the few cells that are out there are joining up since the shear is basically unidirectional at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 South-central Nebraska early evening, after the LLJ begins to whip up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This is one of those days when the SPC mesoanalysis says zero (or less than 25) CINH, but there's got to be something stopping parcels from becoming huge storms in the tornado watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This is one of those days when the SPC mesoanalysis says zero (or less than 25) CINH, but there's got to be something stopping parcels from becoming huge storms in the tornado watch box. You can still have an inversion with positive buoyancy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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