OHweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Was at work and saw a brief burst of nickle sized hail and several minutes of 40-50MPH gusts, along with intense cloud to ground lightning. I'm honestly shocked no severe reports came in from CLE's CWA, as there were some nice storms that came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Was at work and saw a brief burst of nickle sized hail and several minutes of 40-50MPH gusts, along with intense cloud to ground lightning. I'm honestly shocked no severe reports came in from CLE's CWA, as there were some nice storms that came through. What's the spotter network like in CLE? Maybe there weren't any spotters in the locations where the storms hit. Per the radar loop the brunt of the storms were along the lakeshore into Cleveland proper and the eastern suburbs basically missing the southern suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 What's the spotter network like in CLE? Maybe there weren't any spotters in the locations where the storms hit. Per the radar loop the brunt of the storms were along the lakeshore into Cleveland proper and the eastern suburbs basically missing the southern suburbs The southern suburbs did get brushed, most of Cuyahoga County is highly populated and got hit with what appeared to be a bowing line segment, although I was watching that on my crappy 2 by 2" cell phone screen at work. I believe there are hundreds of spotters in Cuyahoga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The southern suburbs did get brushed, most of Cuyahoga County is highly populated and got hit with what appeared to be a bowing line segment, although I was watching that on my crappy 2 by 2" cell phone screen at work. I believe there are hundreds of spotters in Cuyahoga County. Yeah, the reports will probably show up by tomorrow. Maybe they're still gathering all the reports. If there are hundreds of spotters in Cuyahoga county I doubt none of them reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If I were lucky enough to chase tomorrow I think I'd target the area in central Nebraska near or just north of Grand Island. Further north the low-levels are pretty anemic IMO. I'd rather play in areas that have at least 30-40kts at 925mb, which in this case is further south. With the surface low in Nebraska there will likely be a nice dryline bulge down there as well. With the 500mb jet cutting in just to the north of this area, the H5 winds stay slightly more veered in this region as well. Anything that can really dig in and turn right in this environment should be huge. At least we won't have to worry as much about the cap tomorrow. EDIT: The GFS shows much better low-level winds extending further north into the Dakotas. What a ridiculous difference between the NAM and GFS for an event less than 24hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If I were lucky enough to chase tomorrow I think I'd target the area in central Nebraska near or just north of Grand Island. Further north the low-levels are pretty anemic IMO. I'd rather play in areas that have at least 30-40kts at 925mb, which in this case is further south. With the surface low in Nebraska there will likely be a nice dryline bulge down there as well. With the 500mb jet cutting in just to the north of this area, the H5 winds stay slightly more veered in this region as well. Anything that can really dig in and turn right in this environment should be huge. At least we won't have to worry as much about the cap tomorrow. Pending budget review, i may head out tomorrow, not too far from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If I were lucky enough to chase tomorrow I think I'd target the area in central Nebraska near or just north of Grand Island. Further north the low-levels are pretty anemic IMO. I'd rather play in areas that have at least 30-40kts at 925mb, which in this case is further south. With the surface low in Nebraska there will likely be a nice dryline bulge down there as well. With the 500mb jet cutting in just to the north of this area, the H5 winds stay slightly more veered in this region as well. Anything that can really dig in and turn right in this environment should be huge. At least we won't have to worry as much about the cap tomorrow. EDIT: The GFS shows much better low-level winds extending further north into the Dakotas. What a ridiculous difference between the NAM and GFS for an event less than 24hrs away. I liked the YKN-OFK-ONL triangle but will have to see how things look in the morning. possibly a tad stronger cap the further south you go which could mean less storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 don't see a nearly 80kt LLJ too often, pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Man, the GFS is making my head spin. You can say something good about many targets from the Dakotas down into Oklahoma. It almost makes me prefer the KS/OK border region. Moderate instability, strong and back low-level wind field, much more veered H5 winds above 50kts, and a potent dryline. The KS/OK border south of Medicine Lodge late tomorrow. I think I'd still take the middle road and target Nebraska at this point, but I'd be seriously thinking about punching south into Kansas if morning trends pointed in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Man, the GFS is making my head spin. You can say something good about many targets from the Dakotas down into Oklahoma. It almost makes me prefer the KS/OK border region. Moderate instability, strong and back low-level wind field, much more veered H5 winds above 50kts, and a potent dryline. I think I'd still take the middle road and target Nebraska at this point, but I'd be seriously thinking about punching south into Kansas if morning trends pointed in that direction. Ya the NAM is def trying to break out convection in that area by 0z tomorrow evening even though nothing is showing up on the precip plots. You have good signals of ascent on both the H7 RH and UVV's plot and holes of weaker H7 temps up and down the dryline from southern KS down into OK and the eastern TX PH. But it looks like the further south you go, the better chance at low-level moisture mixing out some due to the serious sfc heating that is going to take place down there. It's showing temps in the mid-upper 90's almost up to the KS/NE border, ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Ya the NAM is def trying to break out convection in that area by 0z tomorrow evening even though nothing is showing up on the precip plots. You have good signals of ascent on both the H7 RH and UVV's plot and holes of weaker H7 temps up and down the dryline from southern KS down into OK and the eastern TX PH. But it looks like the further south you go, the better chance at low-level moisture mixing out some due to the serious sfc heating that is going to take place down there. It's showing temps in the mid-upper 90's almost up to the KS/NE border, ouch. Yeah the drought down south won't help those mixing issues. The safest play would definitely be in Nebraska. If something does manage to fire in central/southern Kansas it could be nice. Sure wish I was crashing in Grand Island tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Where is whats his face that was saying we wont see another SLGT risk till mid June? lol and heres another one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Where is whats his face that was saying we wont see another SLGT risk till mid June? lol and heres another one! thread for May 31 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/19350-may-31st-mississippi-valleygreat-lakes-severe-weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Where is whats his face that was saying we wont see another SLGT risk till mid June? lol and heres another one! In other late breaking news, look for no snow from Dec to Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Where is whats his face that was saying we wont see another SLGT risk till mid June? lol and heres another one! I was wrong, but I embraced it by starting the thread for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 new day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 SREF likes a more northern target, which doesn't really make sense. Hard to pin down a target, but I'd guess the Sioux Falls area, H5 and 850s are decent, but hard to make heads or tails out of tomorrow with the potential for things to get linear quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NEB INTO ERN SD SERN ND...WRN MN...AND FAR NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN OK NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN... ..SYNOPSIS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CNTRL NEB BY AFTERNOON...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SERN ND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SURGES EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND WITH THE SURGING COLD FRONT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. ..CNTRL NEB/SD EWD INTO WRN MN AND IA STRONG SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE BY AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND LIFT ERASE THE CAP AND RESULT IN RAPID FORMATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN NEB. VERY STRONG MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO JUXTAPOSED...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG...WILL BE LIKELY. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND WILL AFFECT SD AND EVENTUALLY SERN ND AND WRN MN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...UPPER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DEPICT WEAK AND BACKED STORM RELATIVE FLOW...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FALLING BACK INTO THE UPDRAFT. SECOND...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EWD. ONCE THIS OCCURS...PARTICULARLY DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE IN QLCS FASHION. GIVEN CAPPING TO THE EAST...AND MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF SEVERE IS LIKELY...AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES TO QLCS OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 i'm gonna sit off the 1-29 SD/ND border should see init around 4 pm hopefully low clouds don't keep the warm front too far south. Should be a 1-2 hours stretch of tor-potential then things will get messy. LI"s really argue for things exploding so we could go linear right away, we'll see.... I think we get a torn or 2 in the first hour or so. Hopefully winds really back and strengthen throughout the afternoon to up the SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The HRRR is calling for 4500 j/kg here tomorrow by 18z, likely overdone but impressive nonetheless. Too bad I couldn't be out in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 i'm gonna sit off the 1-29 SD/ND border should see init around 4 pm hopefully low clouds don't keep the warm front too far south. Should be a 1-2 hours stretch of tor-potential then things will get messy. LI"s really argue for things exploding so we could go linear right away, we'll see.... I think we get a torn or 2 in the first hour or so. Hopefully winds really back and strengthen throughout the afternoon to up the SRH. Seems like a good area. I think the best shot at anything sustained discrete tomorrow will be a good distance ahead of the boundary in the warm sector, perhaps near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 you guys up north can have it.... While were baking under that death ridge.... Can't wait until that ridge breaks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Preliminary plan is to head south out of Grand Forks to Wahpeton, ND where numerous road options exist. I can grab a bite at the McDonalds and get some data on the wifi as budget forces me to chase on the cheap. The surface warm front can be played here but there is also easy access to the developing squall line south and west if the warm front is a bust. In house WRF models are a touch weaker with the cap and suggest the possibility of discrete supercell development along or near the warm front by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Video of some of the damage in Battle Creek, also seems like a plug for a cleanup company also... That being said here is the video of some of the damage. Matching up the Sunshine Auto Sales, would put this damage location on the Southwestern part of the City along M-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 03z SREF hitting the Red River of the North pretty hard with some sig tor numbers of 40~ Also showing pockets of 20 (which is up from 10 on 21z run) for Tuesday across Central and Northern Lower Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 03z SREF hitting the Red River of the North pretty hard with some sig tor numbers of 40~ Also showing pockets of 20 (which is up from 10 on 21z run) for Tuesday across Central and Northern Lower Michigan Those kind of values in the northern plains, especially the RRV, are not common. I can attest to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Severe weather threat right here around western and central NE is gouing to be active today. I pretty much expect SPC to back that slight risk up farther W where the latest guidance as well as obs suggest the triple pt/warm sector will be backed up much farther W than earlier progged. Going to be an active day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Those kind of values in the northern plains, especially the RRV, are not common. I can attest to that! Yeah 40 is pretty legit for RRV of the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Yeah 40 is pretty legit for RRV of the North. I got the morning 12Z sounding here in North Platte today. Probably going to be my most important yet in terms of severe weather at least. Warm front just plowed through here not too long ago--we shot up to 71 from 61 the previous hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 SPC just requested an 18Z sounding from us. I may launch twice today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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