Chicago Storm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION... ..SYNOPSIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES...REACHING THE GREAT BASIN AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH CORRESPONDING AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SERN STATES. DESPITE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES...FAST BELT OF WLYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS EARLY SATURDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WARM FRONT ORIGINATING FROM SURFACE LOW IN WRN OK EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY NWD DURING THE PERIOD. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. ..CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY AREA CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN KS INTO MO RESULTING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT ON NOSE OF A 50+ KT SLY LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO IL AND IND AS LLJ MIGRATES EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND THERE IS A MODEST CHANCE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO A PORTION OF CNTRL IL WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED AS FARTHER W. IF ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WOULD PROMOTE A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE EXTENT/DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING AND ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT ONLY A 15% PROBABILITY AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY AS EML ADVECTS EWD...BUT SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD THROUGH KS OVERNIGHT A SECONDARY BRANCH OF LLJ STRENGTHENS. ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL OR NRN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Shifted back WSW a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah, those H7 temps really concern me, but heck I'm doing horrible this year, I need a tornado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If the NMM/ARW are to be believed then there wont be any chasing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If the cap can be broken over Lower MI on Sunday, things could get rather interesting with a warm front in the area. NAM and GFS both suggest it can be broken, though the 10C H7 temps nosing into the area are concerning, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If the cap can be broken over Lower MI on Sunday, things could get rather interesting with a warm front in the area. NAM and GFS both suggest it can be broken, though the 10C H7 temps nosing into the area are concerning, obviously. Sigtor shading at 00z in SEMI on the 09z SREF. This could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 DTX THE TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN IS A BIT SLOWER...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE THAN LIKELY THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY...AND WOULD EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OR RE-FIRE NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING SUNDAY...AS CANADIAN/GFS IMPLYING MCS OR MCV WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WILL BE RAISING POPS (HIGH SCATTERED NORTH/LOWER CHANCE SOUTH)...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF M-59. EVEN IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WET GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO HELP MUTE THE TEMPERATURE RISE TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR AND BEING IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT MAKES ONE CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS LOOK WAY OVERDONE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW PTS AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY/CAPES (3500 J/KG). NONE-THE- LESS...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 60 DEW PTS AND LOW TO MID 80S TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER...ML CAPES OF 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY UP TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melissa in illinois Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Hi all. New to this forum, usually follow accuweather. Thought I would post this graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0997.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PTNS SCNTRL OK...NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272022Z - 272215Z THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK SFC LOW JUST E OF CDS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED ONE DRYLINE FROM THE LOW ARCS THROUGH SOUTHWEST OK AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO NW/NCNTRL TX. A SECONDARY DRYLINE NOTED IN CLEAR AIR RADAR DATA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TX PNHDL AND WILL BE INTERSECTING THE EASTERN DRYLINE BOUNDARY ADDING ADDITIONAL FORCING ABOUT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...2200 TO 0000 UTC. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG AND WEAK CAPPING INVERSION JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND INCREASED FORCING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG WITH PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2011 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 18z NAM for between Columbia and STL later tomorrow. If only we could get some development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 18z NAM for between Columbia and STL later tomorrow. If only we could get some development... You can't get soundings/hodos much better than that. It's so good you just know the damn cap will hold lol. The high res models will be interesting later tonight and tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 getting some serious heating behind the dryline thanks to the drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The 12z RGEM looks promising as it blows up convection from northern/central Illinois back through southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The 12z RGEM looks promising as it blows up convection from northern/central Illinois back through southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. all going to come down to when the ongoing precip moves out and how far north the boundary can get in the afternoon. The SREF moved the probs a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah I am personally liking the potential for Sunday in Michigan, that is a very strong warm front that will be intersecting the area. If convection can go it will probably be spinning like a top along that warm front. Of course the personal deal breaker is I work Sunday night so, I'm sure while i sleep there will be action... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah I am personally liking the potential for Sunday in Michigan, that is a very strong warm front that will be intersecting the area. If convection can go it will probably be spinning like a top along that warm front. Of course the personal deal breaker is I work Sunday night so, I'm sure while i sleep there will be action... lol I'm hoping to go chasing on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 SREF increased to 10%. FWIW there are tornado sirens all around here. I have not personally, or physically, heard tornado sirens in a tornado warning before. Maybe I am getting ahead of myself here. It's just a random thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 SREF increased to 10%. FWIW there are tornado sirens all around here. I have not personally, or physically, heard tornado sirens in a tornado warning before. Maybe I am getting ahead of myself here. It's just a random thought. Ah, I see you added your location...I always thought you lived in Ontario due to your screen name lol. Anyways, I haven't had a tornado warning in Michigan, or Oklahoma since 9/8/2007. The 00z Monday sounding for KPTK from the 12z NAM was pure model porn, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'm hoping to go chasing on Sunday. The 46 corridor always yields for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 LSX UNSURE HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. MLCAPE VALUES JUMP INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND MUCAPE CLIMBS ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE...BUT THERE IS QUITE A LOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS. THINK SOMEWHERE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH...OR SIMPLY NOT THERE...FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TAP THAT INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The 46 corridor always yields for whatever reason. usually where the warm front gets stuck in the late spring/early summer because of lake huron, plus add lake breezes and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The 46 corridor always yields for whatever reason. Yep. Would love a 5/12/2000 or 5/15/2007 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yep. Would love a 5/12/2000 or 5/15/2007 repeat. You wouldn't want a 5/21/01 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Monday might end up being pretty decent also in Minnesota, already in a day 4 outlook and the SREF looking pretty hot early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 You wouldn't want a 5/21/01 ? From what I remember of that day the supercells were rather messy; give me one classic supercell and I'm good. Interested to see the SPC Day 2 Outlook tomorrow; I'd have to believe we'll get a 15% Slight at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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