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Plains May 27-30 severe weather threat?


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ETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

336 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

ELKHART COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN LAGRANGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG ROTATION ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM MISHAWAKA TO BREMEN TO 4 MILES WEST OF BOURBON...AND

MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

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GRR

.MESOSCALE...(340 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011)

MIXED LAYER CAPE SHOWS INCREASING CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX

ALONG INTERSTATE 94 WITH VALUES UP AROUND 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER

SHEAR WAS UP TO 50 KNOTS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SFC

TO 1 KM SHEAR AXIS HAS INCREASED TO 25 KNOTS INTO VAN BUREN COUNTY

SUGGESTING AN INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94

CORRIDOR. THE SFC FLOW REMAINS BACKED IN THIS REGION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.9 INCHES WITH THE

COMPLEX AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF

THE COMPLEX WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. THUS THE FLASH

FLOOD RISK IS INCREASING WITH THIS EVENT.

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Not sure you keep the MDT at the 20z update.

After the velocity image Thundersnow just posted and the highly unstable environment the QLCS is currently moving into, I'm not sure about this. A bit of a surface inversion might have been what has kept the number of reports down thus far, and right now the SPC meso's are showing almost no capping ahead of the squall line. It will be interesting though, some slight re-positioning of the highest risk areas will probably be in order.

A rise/fall surface pressure pattern is developing with the squall line as well, which may help it maintain severity:

post-525-0-90792800-1306697836.jpg

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Wow, Huge Gust of Wind at the End of this complex going through RFD....

..GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON

ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PHENOMENA...KNOWN AS A WAKE LOW...WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.

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the storm out ahead of the line in michigan north of i94 riding the warm front should be watched over the next few hours as it moves to the east and into some better surfaced based instablity. Gonna be the best bet for any sig. tornado formation

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After the velocity image Thundersnow just posted and the highly unstable environment the QLCS is currently moving into, I'm not sure about this. A bit of a surface inversion might have been what has kept the number of reports down thus far, and right now the SPC meso's are showing almost no capping ahead of the squall line. It will be interesting though, some slight re-positioning of the highest risk areas will probably be in order.

A rise/fall surface pressure pattern is developing with the squall line as well, which may help it maintain severity:

post-525-0-90792800-1306697836.jpg

Yeah I think the moderate should be maintained, even if it seems like the line has "underperformed" so far.

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Thundersnow mentioned the southeast Nebraska area earlier. The HRRR does in fact blow up some monsters from southeast Nebraska back into Kansas. The 18z RUC also tries to initiate things in southeast Nebraska around 00z. RUC forecasts very impressive 1km EHI values over 6 over that area. 3km values are over 10. If the cap can break in that area it could be quite nice.

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Thundersnow mentioned the southeast Nebraska area earlier. The HRRR does in fact blow up some monsters from southeast Nebraska back into Kansas. The 18z RUC also tries to initiate things in southeast Nebraska around 00z. RUC forecasts very impressive 1km EHI values over 6 over that area. 3km values are over 10. If the cap can break in that area it could be quite nice.

Ya the 17z HRRR develops semi-discrete supercells in north central KS and then a nice looking complex from west of OAX that races northeast into western WI overnight.

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DTX still optimistic...

LARGE AND MATURE MCS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AS LCL HEIGHTS FALL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LINE. SURFACE WINDS AT NWS OFFICE IN WHITE LAKE WERE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 330 PM/1930Z...WHILE KDTX VAD WIND PROFILE (ALSO LOCATED AT NWS WHITE LAKE) AT 1930Z SHOWED THE CORE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING UP THROUGH 2000 FT AGL. 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WAS RUNNING ABOUT 20 KNOTS AT 19Z PER SPC ANALYSIS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 40-50 KNOTS. WHILE THE SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR MODES OF CONVECTION...SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOTH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BRIEF SPIN-UPS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF LINE OF STORMS.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

358 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KALAMAZOO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35

MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

358 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KALAMAZOO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35

MPH.

Was wondering when GRR was gonna start putting out the warnings.

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can see the boundary nicely on the TWX radar and vis sat as its oriented SW-NE between MHK and CNK and really cooking south and east of that with some really nice theta-e air pooling right on the boundary in southeast NE.

dang my 3000th post lol was with Eastern Wx for I think two years and didn't come close to the amount of posts.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

419 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0410 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE KALAMAZOO 42.30N 85.57W

05/29/2011 KALAMAZOO MI EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED NEAR GULL ROAD AND RIVERVIEW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

419 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0410 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE KALAMAZOO 42.30N 85.57W

05/29/2011 KALAMAZOO MI EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED NEAR GULL ROAD AND RIVERVIEW

AZO only gusted to 51 mph but there was a 70 mph report in another part of town.

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