Srain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why is there a seperate MI thread from the other one... this thread is unneeded. My thoughts exactly. Basically because it said PLAINS and I wanted to prevent the bull**** that happened last time from happening again. It doesn't frankly care how the topics are arranged, I just want to discuss the weather without the whining about how people are posting. Have fun in your own little world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 My guess is that DTX told them to hold off on the MDT risk for their CWA, as the MDT risk stops right at the western edge of the DTX CWA. I'm not seeing any signals for why it would weaken as it moves into SE Michigan but I suppose I could be missing something. Western Lenawee County is in the MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 000FXUS63 KDTX 291635 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 .UPDATE... MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER IOWA THIS MORNING IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL SOME LINGERING QUESTIONS AS TO HOW CAPPED WE WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND 18Z RAOB WILL BE RELEASED AT KDTX TO HELP ASSESS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A GENEROUS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 700MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS CAP SHOULD ERODE BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...RIGHT AS THE MCS IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA. DO NOT THINK ANY LINGERING CIN THAT IS LEFT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS ONGOING CONVECTION REGARDLESS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO A CONCERN WITH SHEAR VALUES HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CELLS/SUPERCELLS. OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RENEW RECENT FLOODING OR GENERATE NEW AREAS. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 401 AM FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF SEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 fog gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 First warned mini bow moving through here with winds of 30-40mph, heavy rain and a good deal of lightning. There was a shelf cloud, but it wasn't great looking due to the lower clouds/haze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 First warned mini bow moving through here with winds of 30-40mph, heavy rain and a good deal of lightning. There was a shelf cloud, but it wasn't great looking due to the lower clouds/haze. visibility has really jumped here now that the initial waa wing has pulled north, bow heading right my way, might get a better look. PIA about to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC upgraded the probabilities upstream of the MCS to a 70% or greater chance of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 First warned mini bow moving through here with winds of 30-40mph, heavy rain and a good deal of lightning. There was a shelf cloud, but it wasn't great looking due to the lower clouds/haze. KDPA is gusing to 58mph. Velocities were higher down that way, so i's no too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 PIA about to get rocked. blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 12z GFS picks up on the MCS pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 visibility has really jumped here now that the initial waa wing has pulled north, bow heading right my way, might get a better look. PIA about to get rocked. There has been a lack of severe repors since the line moved through the QC. We'll see how it does once it moves back into the more populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 There has been a lack of severe repors since the line moved through the QC. We'll see how it does once it moves back ino the more populated area. Feeling pretty confident we see reports in the Ottawa, Joliet, Kankakee areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The stratocumuls from the west has moved back in for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 some idiot named reese johnson reported a rotating wall cloud in carol stream....this is why some spotters need to shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 some idiot named reese johnson reported a rotating wall cloud in carol stream....this is why some spotters need to shot. I saw that..lol. I am just turning onto I-80 coming up from I-57. Still lots of fog here..visibility about a 1/4 mile or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 some idiot named reese johnson reported a rotating wall cloud in carol stream....this is why some spotters need to shot. When it was probably a shelf cloud? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 78/67 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I saw that..lol. I am just turning onto I-80 coming up from I-57. Still lots of fog here..visibility about a 1/4 mile or so. A had to send him a bit of a message on facebook, some people are so clueless when it comes to looking at the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... VALID 291659Z - 291800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394 CONTINUES. BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z. RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394 AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL. ..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312 41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Feeling pretty confident we see reports in the Ottawa, Joliet, Kankakee areas. I'm in Kankakee now...will report any fun stuff if/when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Line is starting to move more ENE now, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I don't see a need for multiple threads at this point. Considering the relatively low severe probs in the Plains today and the plethora of posters from the Lakes area, the disco would tend to focus there anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 right on the head of the bow also 79/72 now at kankakee 1140 AM TSTM WND GST GRANVILLE 41.26N 89.23W 05/29/2011 E75 MPH PUTNAM IL TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Get ready for some riveting video. Storm underperformed here. I wouldn't have filmed so long but I kept waiting for it to get better. Sorry for the horrible sound quality, but I just shot this with the cell phone. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB1uUp1mNKw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 right on the head of the bow also 79/72 now at kankakee 1140 AM TSTM WND GST GRANVILLE 41.26N 89.23W 05/29/2011 E75 MPH PUTNAM IL TRAINED SPOTTER not bad, i had a feeling that bow would deliver some 70 mph gusts. another torrential downpour here, going to be close to a 2" kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Really nice bowing structure/rij with this thing. Sort of repeating what others have said but we should continue to see a corridor of damaging winds marching across either side of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Really nice bowing structure/rij with this thing. Sort of repeating what others have said but we should continue to see a corridor of damaging winds marching across either side of I-80. yep, front of the bow looks to ride along I80 or just north into the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ILC037-043-053-063-089-091-093-099-103-105-141-197-291815- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-110529T1815Z/ KANE IL-KANKAKEE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-OGLE IL- WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE IL-FORD IL-LEE IL- 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN FORD...WESTERN DUPAGE...DE KALB...GRUNDY...WESTERN WILL...SOUTHERN OGLE...LIVINGSTON...EASTERN LA SALLE...KENDALL... WESTERN KANKAKEE AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT... AT 1214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STILLMAN VALLEY TO SENECA TO DANVERS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...AT 1140 AM CDT...75 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN GRANVILLE ILLINOIS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 AM CDT CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATES THE BOW ECHO MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACED BASED CONVECTION...AS THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OF A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE AT THIS TIME. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE SPIN UP OF A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOWING SEGMENT. ZERO TO 1 KM LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-88. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED THE BEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR INDICATING A STRONG THREAT FOR A CONTINUATION OF VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF A 1.5 INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 12,000 FT AND THE TRAINING NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL POSSE SOME FLASH FLOODING THREATS. KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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