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Plains May 27-30 severe weather threat?


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Torrential downpour with lots of CGs and dense fog lol. Fun times. Looks like Tipton just got hit by some pretty strong winds according to the latest few velocity scans.

You aren't kidding about the CGs, this is ridiculous.

Can't remember the last time I had so many close strikes. Sounds like cannons going off every 15-20 seconds.

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KLOT scanning tops of 59KFT near MLI.

Keep building....this will be a nice added bonus for coming down for the weekend from Alaska....got GR2 running....wil decide as time approaches but loos like in Micigan the instability front is setting up from Gary, IN to Port huron....plan to set up somehere NE of Ann arbor.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

DISCUSSION

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

MCS MOVING FROM EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN IL AT 1545Z. STORMS REMAIN

ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WHICH

EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY KUIN-KBMI-KRZL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WFO LOT CWA.

EXPECTATION IS THAT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND

THAT AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DIURNAL WARMING THAT STORMS WILL

BECOME BASED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL

INCREASE ACROSS WFO LOT CWA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM RUC

INDICATES 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA

AT THIS TIME...WITH 50-60 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. 0-1KM SRH ALSO

INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL

FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT. SPC WILL BE UPGRADING DAY 1

OUTLOOK TO MODERATE RISK SHORTLY AHEAD OF CURRENT BOW. ILX 12Z

SOUNDING DISPLAYS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.8 INCHES...AND STORMS

DEVELOPING IN WEST-EAST ORIENTATION IN WAA NORTH OF WARM FRONT

ALIGNED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS

EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. RELATIVELY HIGH

FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 14-15 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL NOT LIKELY TO

BE A BIG PROBLEM EXCEPT FROM THE DEEPEST AND MOST SUSTAINED

UPDRAFTS...THOUGH ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES COULD VERY WELL

SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHERN IL

NORTHERN

IND...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW

ENGLAND...

..IL TO LOWER MI

A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO HAS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST IL.

THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF IND AND LOWER MI BY

EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG UPPER

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW

ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED

BOW AND RESULTING DERECHO EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED TO

MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION.

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83/66 here... good instability but Capping issues are obviously going to be a big concern here.

Yeah, we're into the mid 70s now with SCT stratocumulus.

So obviously the inversion is still there, but it should continue to erode with time.

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My guess is that DTX told them to hold off on the MDT risk for their CWA, as the MDT risk stops right at the western edge of the DTX CWA. I'm not seeing any signals for why it would weaken as it moves into SE Michigan but I suppose I could be missing something.

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Storm was sort of a snoozer here. Winds only gusted to maybe 30mph or so. Saw a report from here in town of 60mph winds, but saw nothing even close to that here. Did have a few pea size hail chunks at the tail end. The most impressive thing about the storm was the heavy rain. Almost 2" for the day now.

I shot a video of it with my cell phone. Will post it once it's uploaded. Nothing spectacular, but maybe it'll give you guys off to the east a bit of a preview lol.

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