Plains May 27-30 severe weather threat?

[janetjanet998]

atmosphre should really destablize too over N IND and lower MI ahead of it

[Powerball]

I wasn't expecting that covection ahead of the MCS.

That's a bit of a concern.

[kab2791]

Good luck everyone chasing. Hope to see some well-structured shelf-cloud pics.

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:25 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

I will be doing the same thing, west of 47 and north of 30 is usually a pretty good spot.

[Thundersnow12]

wish those storms from south of DVN to LaSalle/Peru weren't there.

[Powerball]

We already have 8 severe weather reports, 5 of which are hail and 3 of which are wind.

EDIT: And the numbers are growing as I type, lol.

[janetjanet998]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:32 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

wish those storms from south of DVN to LaSalle/Peru weren't there.

warm advection wing of the MCS very common...south of them is the warm sector...

sometimes you get spin ups in those..but I would target the bow head which should move along I-80

[Thundersnow12]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:37 PM, janetjanet998 said:

warm advection wing of the MCS very common...south of them is the warm sector...

sometimes you get spin ups in those..but I would target the bow head which should move along I-80

Exactly I know that lol but it would be better if we had a bit more sun out ahead of this thing.

I'm going to gas up now so I don't have to later when this thing sucker gets closer.

[cyclone77]

Thundering, foggy, and very still here. Sort of spooky in a way. Very dark outside. Not gonna chase this. Probably just stay right here and watch it come in.

[on_wx]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:27 PM, Powerball said:

I wasn't expecting that covection ahead of the MCS.

That's a bit of a concern.

SEMI style convective cloud debris?

[A-L-E-K]

downright cold here with fog getting more intense. Some of the oddest pre-severe wx conditions i can recall, can't help but be a little skeptical of the threat lakeside.

storms on WAA wing rapidly building into Chicago

[Powerball]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:40 PM, on_wx said:

SEMI style convective cloud debris?

On the contrary, other than some passive stratus for 15 minutes around 9 AM we've had full sunshine here. I suspect the stratus to the west will mix out too.

I don't care if debris comes in anytime after 1:30 PM (peak heating). The damage WRT destabilization will already be done.

[janetjanet998]

12z NAM misses this whole complex LOL and RUC playing catch up

[Powerball]

Abuot the only model picking up on this MCS is the HRRR.

The NAM is clueless as usual (granted it does have a nice MCV moving through today, I'll give it credit for that).

[A-L-E-K]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:50 PM, janetjanet998 said:

12z NAM misses this whole complex LOL and RUC playing catch up

absolutely nothing new there, although it hinted hard at the potential 48 hrs out

WAA wing really lighting up now.

[Powerball]

Temps are already into the mid 70s this way.

[cyclone77]

DVN toned down the wording on their new warning that includes the QC. Really not seeing anything all that impressive on velocity scans right now. Winds look marginally severe at this point all along the line, but that could change very quickly. The lack of surface based instability may be keeping this thing from going completely crazy at this point.

[A-L-E-K]

Starting to brighten up now as some of the waa showers start.

[kevlon62]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:25 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

I will be doing the same thing, west of 47 and north of 30 is usually a pretty good spot.

Had a very nice horizon view at the east end of KARR a few weeks ago. Basically parked/sat on the paved side of a curb cut on the new Municipal Drive/Galena Blvd. watching a few planes skim over on their final approach from the east into 09/27. Air & ground ops provided for some light diversion during the wait for storms to roll in. Might make the move south today.

Looks like WAA wing and instability gradient is helping to set stage for some NE movement.

[janetjanet998]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:53 PM, Alek said:

absolutely nothing new there, although it hinted hard at the potential 48 hrs out

WAA wing really lighting up now.

its possible the bow part of the system may turn a little ESE over N IL...and you will be stuck in both the WAA heavy rains and the north end of the bow heavy rains

if other words heavy rains for 2-3 hours

[hawkeye_wx]

There were a couple reports of 50-60 mph wind just south and just ne of Cedar Rapids, but I barely got any wind at all. I just got about 0.40" of rain with some garden variety lightning/thunder.

Update: It's now getting much breezier in the wake.

[A-L-E-K]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:57 PM, cyclone77 said:

DVN toned down the wording on their new warning that includes the QC. Really not seeing anything all that impressive on velocity scans right now. Winds look marginally severe at this point all along the line, but that could change very quickly. The lack of surface based instability may be keeping this thing from going completely crazy at this point.

DCAPE is pretty weak out there but increases somewhat east and south and is being injected north pretty quick. I doubt we see anything too wild, but as the cold pool grows, we'll probably see some 70 mph gusts today.

EDIT: filtered sun

[A-L-E-K]

  On 5/29/2011 at 3:00 PM, janetjanet998 said:

its possible the bow part of the system may turn a little ESE over N IL...and you will be stuck in both the WAA heavy rains and the north end of the bow heavy rains

if other words heavy rains for 2-3 hours

agree, we look like a lock for a decent period of storms.

[cyclone77]

A lot of CG strikes around here right now with this WAA wing crap. Hope it doesn't knock my power out before the line hits.

[Thundersnow12]

[on_wx]

  On 5/29/2011 at 2:54 PM, Powerball said:

Temps are already into the mid 70s this way.

Yeah it's hit 70 dp 63 here and the afternoon forecast has been revised to 79

[janetjanet998]

instability is really increasing ahead of the bow

71/66 here at PIA but 72/70 now at Pontiac and Kankakee

[outflow]

i think your too far north, i see the whole system moving straight east, maybe even ese, into the greatest instablity, but it will be a close call.

[cyclone77]

Torrential downpour with lots of CGs and dense fog lol. Fun times. Looks like Tipton just got hit by some pretty strong winds according to the latest few velocity scans.

[wisconsinwx]

We'll get in on some rain and embedded t'storms, but that's about it. Tuesday looks like the better potential overall; already 15% hatched for SE Wisconsin.

[SEMIweather]

DTX issued a flood watch for the southern 4 tiers of counties. Can't say I'm surprised considering how much rain we've gotten over the past 2 weeks.