ilstormchaser Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just thought I would start something here as it looks like there may a few days of severe wx and also since it will be my mini chase vacation. Friday there could be a supercell or two over Oklahoma as the 850/500 mb crossover winds are very favorable although the tornado threat will be very low unless any storms that manage to fire turn right. Sort of worried about the cap for both Saturday and Sunday so as of now I will be planning on doing some Colorado chasing and see some potential especially on Sunday just East of Denver. Looks like a legit system for Monday will be ejecting out into the Plains however I may not be able to chase because I have to be at my home no later than 5 am near Peoria, IL. Looks like a mega death ridge setting up after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just thought I would start something here as it looks like there may a few days of severe wx and also since it will be my mini chase vacation. Friday there could be a supercell or two over Oklahoma as the 850/500 mb crossover winds are very favorable although the tornado threat will be very low unless any storms that manage to fire turn right. Sort of worried about the cap for both Saturday and Sunday so as of now I will be planning on doing some Colorado chasing and see some potential especially on Sunday just East of Denver. Looks like a legit system for Monday will be ejecting out into the Plains however I may not be able to chase because I have to be at my home no later than 5 am near Peoria, IL. Looks like a mega death ridge setting up after Monday. My amateur opinion, you might get lucky Monday further North than Colorado, and then it does look like severe weather becomes a more isolated event. Death Ridge does appear to be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just thought I would start something here as it looks like there may a few days of severe wx and also since it will be my mini chase vacation. Friday there could be a supercell or two over Oklahoma as the 850/500 mb crossover winds are very favorable although the tornado threat will be very low unless any storms that manage to fire turn right. Sort of worried about the cap for both Saturday and Sunday so as of now I will be planning on doing some Colorado chasing and see some potential especially on Sunday just East of Denver. Looks like a legit system for Monday will be ejecting out into the Plains however I may not be able to chase because I have to be at my home no later than 5 am near Peoria, IL. Looks like a mega death ridge setting up after Monday. If 12z NAM is correct you better just stay home...or at least head back after friday saturday over IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 If 12z NAM is correct you better just stay home...or at least head back after friday saturday over IL possibly sunday too with the warm front further north and really nice mid-level flow over it and theta e air pooling on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Of Course they'll be a threat for storms Sunday.... ALWAYS a risk for storms on indy 500 race day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Here is what I see as some of the possibilities Friday May 27th Saturday May 28th Sunday May 29th Monday May 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Here is what I see as some of the possibilities Friday May 27th Saturday May 28th Sunday May 29th Monday May 30th Boy, you can just see the expansion of the ridge in these images. Each day, the severe threat gets shifted north. Looks like the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will be the place to be next week, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 if the gfs is right .. pretty short season in the heart of the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 if the gfs is right .. pretty short season in the heart of the plains There is some good terrain up in the Dakotas, though. I remember hearing lots of chasers having a blast there last year, especially in late May and June. It may not be done yet, just further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Does not look impressive from a tornado outbreak perspective, but setup is ripe for upslope and derecho activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 There is some good terrain up in the Dakotas, though. I remember hearing lots of chasers having a blast there last year, especially in late May and June. It may not be done yet, just further north. yeah, i think along the periphery of the ridge might still be ok -- sorta typical late season stuff, perhaps a bit early. but still, other than the outbreak this week this has not been a big yr in the plains. if they're upper ridged into the first week of june, running out of time at least in the southern areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sunday looks mildly interesting in the Southern High Plains, though there are numerous concerns and potential cons to the setup. From an historical perspective, it's still a tad premature to say time is running out for the SP, as there have been plenty of significant events from the TX PH to KS as late as mid June. But realistically, I have a feeling it is running out *if* the death ridge verifies and sticks around all the way into the week after next. Probably still several chase opportunities in the offing for NE/SD/ND as we go through June, even if they're mainly NW flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sunday looks mildly interesting in the Southern High Plains, though there are numerous concerns and potential cons to the setup. From an historical perspective, it's still a tad premature to say time is running out for the SP, as there have been plenty of significant events from the TX PH to KS as late as mid June. But realistically, I have a feeling it is running out *if* the death ridge verifies and sticks around all the way into the week after next. Probably still several chase opportunities in the offing for NE/SD/ND as we go through June, even if they're mainly NW flow events. it could be wrong, but if not it does not show much sign of relenting anytime soon. gfs is ok with pattern recognition. anyway...this is probably along the margin of where i am still bitter over my trip activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Here is what I see as some of the possibilities Saturday May 28th are those off the SREF site? haven't seen the overlays before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I wouldn't be too concerned, ND/SD were amazing last year. Even though the GFS shows the ridge gettting all the way up there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 northeast of STL on saturday evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 northeast of STL on saturday evening.. Holy crap! I haven't looked into any of that yet. Didn't even realize there was something coming up. I have so much crap going on this weekend I'll have to really finagle my way out of some of it to chase lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 VERY nice hodos over southern Illinois as T-snow mentioned. Look how long and curved this beast is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like a pretty strong cap unfortunately later Saturday over southern Illinois. Lots of warm temps advecting in at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 and it breaks out a discrete storm in west of STL and rides the warm front into IL between 21z-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like a pretty strong cap unfortunately later Saturday over southern Illinois. Lots of warm temps advecting in at 700mb. the cap is def breakable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cap is def breakable IMO The 18z NAM looks like it has weaker CINH as it holds the warmer H7 temps off a bit compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 and it breaks out a discrete storm in west of STL and rides the warm front into IL between 21z-0z. Looks like it develops along the edge of the cap, riding it eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like it develops along the edge of the cap, riding it easward. and tornadoing its brains out along the way ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The GFS has some sick soundings over central and southern Illinois as well. Also breaks out convection later in the day. The GFS also has more instability. This has the makings of a great setup as long as capping issues don't screw it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 lets see my Birthday weekend, lets look back at previous events shall we.... Indy 500 2004, bad one, 91 had an F 4 tornado go within 10 miles of Flora as i was in the middle of my birthday party, that's just to name a few, so yeah expect a severe storm this weekend..... Good news is SPC isn't too bullish, while there have been some outbreaks that they have missed, they are REAL good at pinpointing the outbreaks, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sunday looks mildly interesting in the Southern High Plains, though there are numerous concerns and potential cons to the setup. Probably still several chase opportunities in the offing for NE/SD/ND as we go through June, even if they're mainly NW flow events. Even though this year might had brought the most tornado tragedy, historically usually major events still happen in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Michigan, S. Ontario late June into July just after that. Huge thunderstorm complexes often become strong bow echoes or derechos dropping small tornadoes as well. Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa are still due for this spring, not much there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If we can clear out the late morning/early afternoon precip in eastern MO into IL a bit faster then we are really going to be in buisness..heat up quicker and get something to pop on the warm front in IL under the nearly 50kt LLJ axis and great mid-level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If we can clear out the late morning/early afternoon precip in eastern MO into IL a bit faster then we are really going to be in buisness..heat up quicker and get something to pop on the warm front in IL under the nearly 50kt LLJ axis and great mid-level flow. Agree, and that morning convection will lay down boundaries in its wake too. SREF showing 20 at this juncture valid 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Agree, and that morning convection will lay down boundaries in its wake too. SREF showing 20 at this juncture valid 00z Sunday. It moved both the 10 and 20 further northeast from the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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