Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Tuesday and Wednesday look hot. Certainly could see mid 90's here assuming there isn't something unexpected with convection. 0z GFS MOS with 93/94 on Tue/Wed for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Beautiful morning. 70 degrees, low humidity, and not a cloud in the sky. Going to be a perfect day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Thundering here as some weak elevated cells pass to the northeast. More impressive storms in southeast Iowa are dropping very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Tuesday and Wednesday look hot. Certainly could see mid 90's here assuming there isn't something unexpected with convection. Puke. I'm going to have to do some research on the hottest Junes on record for LAF. Seems like we're headed in that direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Puke. I'm going to have to do some research on the hottest Junes on record for LAF. Seems like we're headed in that direction... I think this might be the case for several locales from Central IN south through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks like a 3 day period of upper 80s/lower 90s for Tu/W/Th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks like a 3 day period of upper 80s/lower 90s for Tu/W/Th Warminesta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Nice little extended cool down on the euro up here after the torch. I hope the roller coaster temps continue all summer. Something in that for everbody and keeps things more interesting than a heat dome parked on us. Loving the dryer air this morning but with the skin cancer burnage of yesterday, I have the chills and I'm dreading the shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Nice little extended cool down on the euro up here after the torch. I hope the roller coaster temps continue all summer. Something in that for everbody and keeps things more interesting than a heat dome parked on us. Loving the dryer air this morning but with the skin cancer burnage of yesterday, I have the chills and I'm dreading the shower. The GFS suggests this cooldown won't make it too far south with 850s staying up around 15-16C for northern Ohio and Indiana. So that would still support highs of 80-85 and lows 60-65, or about 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I think this might be the case for several locales from Central IN south through the Mid Mississippi Valley. Yeah. I thought last summer was bad, but I fear this one will take that one to the woodshed. Did a check of hot Junes around here, and came up with this list (all courtesy of the WL COOP which has records dating back to 1901). 1) 79.3º - 1933 2) 78.9º - 1934 3) 76.6º - 1921 4) 75.9º - 1944 5) 75.7º - 1925 6) 75.5º - 1941 7) 75.4º - 1919 8) 75.0º - 1931 9) 74.8º - 1939 10) 74.7º - 1991 No surprise, the 1930's dominate again. Who knows if there was some "fuzzy" recording or measuring back in those days, but there's also some "fuzziness" to LAF's numbers these days as well. Regardless those are the numbers to shoot for. As well, we're obviously off to a hot start through the first 4 days of June, with more heat in the next several days, so I looked for the hottest first 10 days of June throughout history. 1) 80.1º - 1933 2) 79.9º - 1925 3) 79.3º - 1934 4) 78.0º - 1942 5) 76.6º - 1914 6) 75.7º - 1963 7) 75.2º - 1911 8) 75.0º - 1940 9) 74.9º - 2005 10) 74.6º - 2008 LAF with an average of 75.9º through yesterday. 0z MEX MOS for the 6th through 10th: 87/60, 93/67, 94/69, 89/69, 79/65. Assuming a 88/64 for today and using the MEX numbers (no doubt they won't be exactly right, but will be for this purpose), the 10 day average will ballpark at 76.6º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The GFS suggests this cooldown won't make it too far south with 850s staying up around 15-16C for northern Ohio and Indiana. So that would still support highs of 80-85 and lows 60-65, or about 3 to 5 degrees above normal. If you say so Ytterbumm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Puke. I'm going to have to do some research on the hottest Junes on record for LAF. Seems like we're headed in that direction... Score one for Chad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 If you say so Ytterbumm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 After reviewing the 12z runs, here are my calls for Tue/Wed. 2 stations...KORD and KLAF Tuesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 Wednesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 The one caveat is whether there are any storms to hold things down a bit. Right now, storm prospects don't look very good at least during most of the daylight hours, so am not expecting much of a problem as far as that goes. SW/WSW flow, deep mixing, and nearly full sun should allow near optimal warming on both days. In fact, I would not be shocked if one of the locally hotter locations in Chicago touches 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Very nasty, random wind right now in Hermitage, TN... ominous looking clouds as well. Wunderground picking up a TVS for some odd reason to my NW moving SE? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 After reviewing the 12z runs, here are my calls for Tue/Wed. 2 stations...KORD and KLAF Tuesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 Wednesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 The one caveat is whether there are any storms to hold things down a bit. Right now, storm prospects don't look very good at least during most of the daylight hours, so am not expecting much of a problem as far as that goes. SW/WSW flow, deep mixing, and nearly full sun should allow near optimal warming on both days. In fact, I would not be shocked if one of the locally hotter locations in Chicago touches 100. Sounds reasonable for LAF, although I personally would be a little surprised if ORD was that high. It seems to run a couple degrees cooler than MDW, especially on hot days for some reason. So in order for ORD to reach 99, MDW would probably be 100 or 101. Hell, Gary, IN would probably have to come in at like 102. I'd say 95-96 at ORD, but maybe 98-99 somewhere in the Chicago area. The NWS forecasts for around 90 to low 90s those days are definitely too low. And the forecast for later in the week of 64 on Friday and 71 on Saturday in Chicago are laughably low if the GFS verifies. Will probably be close to 80 on Friday and well in the 80s on Saturday if the GFS is even remotely close. This pattern seems to be giving some of the NWS WFO's trouble. I know its cooler there in Indiana today because of all the clouds and rain, but if it had been sunny it would probably have hit 90 again at LAF. Its climbing in the mid 80s all across northern Ohio -- was originally supposed to be around 80. The biggest bust, like yesterday, is in NW Ohio where its in the upper 80s! Forecast was upper 70s there, so about a 10-degree bust like yesterday. It may actually touch 90 at Metcalf Field before the day is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Euro still looking refreshing up here after the couple three hot days. Could use a little rain sometime in the next week or so. 70/53 Lake MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Sounds reasonable for LAF, although I personally would be a little surprised if ORD was that high. It seems to run a couple degrees cooler than MDW, especially on hot days for some reason. So in order for ORD to reach 99, MDW would probably be 100 or 101. Hell, Gary, IN would probably have to come in at like 102. I'd say 95-96 at ORD, but maybe 98-99 somewhere in the Chicago area. The NWS forecasts for around 90 to low 90s those days are definitely too low. And the forecast for later in the week of 64 on Friday and 71 on Saturday in Chicago are laughably low if the GFS verifies. Will probably be close to 80 on Friday and well in the 80s on Saturday if the GFS is even remotely close. Models are progging 850's of 22-23C at ORD with mixing to about that level. If that occurs then upper 90's are likely. I thought about going a degree or two cooler but the counterbalance is that it's a pretty urban area and the lower atmosphere doesn't look overly moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The NWS forecasts for around 90 to low 90s those days are definitely too low. And the forecast for later in the week of 64 on Friday and 71 on Saturday in Chicago are laughably low if the GFS verifies. Will probably be close to 80 on Friday and well in the 80s on Saturday if the GFS is even remotely close. You're forgetting about the lake breeze. 12z GFS MOS has 77 for Thur, 67 for Fri and 76 for Sat. NWS forecast has 80 for Thur, 65 for Fri and 72 for Sat. Even if you go above MOS data, which is likely the way to go, Fri/Sat will not be that warm. 850's on Fri are under 15C, though on Sat they're back over 15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 If my numbers are close, Tue/Wed could end up being the warmest June 7/8 in Chicago since 1933. Records for the 7th and 8th are 100 and 97. Might not be wise to go 2 above record 3 days out (I didn't know it at the time) but at least there is some precedent for this type of warmth this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Izzi's afternoon disco... NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS ALL SHOWING SUFFICIENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW TO PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE COOLING EACH DAY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 MONDAY AND PROBABLY WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE SAVING GRACE LOOKS TO BE THE RATHER MODERATE HUMIDITY VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 KEEPING HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 TUES AND WED. OTHER THAN THE SLIM CHANCE OF AN MCS OR ITS REMNANT CLOUD COVER AFFECTING THE CWA IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE EXPECTED LARGE PERCENTAGE OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE HEAT ISLAND TO REALLY BAKE...WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING BELOW 80 BY TUESDAY NIGHT DOWNTOWN. NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING THE CITY OF CHICAGO'S HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (3 DAYS W/HEAT INDICES 100-105F)...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER CLOSE AND WITH IT STILL BEING EARLY IN THE SEASON COULD STILL POSE A RISK TO THOSE WITH MORE FRAGILE HEALTH CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Sure glad I bought an additional AC the other day. Definitely gonna need it over the next several days. The best shot at upper 90s for Chicago looks to be Wednesday IMO. 850s are a little higher, and the heat will be a little more established. Temps will probably be starting out in the upper 70s or even lower 80s that morning. Izzi's right about the lack of extreme humidity making things even worse. The only caveat is that may allow temps to rise a few more degrees. The lack of mature crops, veered surface winds, and drought conditions in the southern Plains are all in favor of a pretty potent heat wave. Heights look to build enough that it should keep the MCS activity pretty far to the north. Around this area I'm expecting 92 tomorrow, 95 Tuesday, and 97 Wednesday. Should be pretty similar in Chicago, if not a little warmer due to heat island effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 HRRR tries to ignite some decent convection later tonight after the veering LLJ kicks up. Could be a repeat of this morning, just farther north. Could be some very heavy rain if this sets up somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Deedler says a normal Summer... http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&updated-max=2012-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Score one for Chad! In Chad we trust I guess. After reviewing the 12z runs, here are my calls for Tue/Wed. 2 stations...KORD and KLAF Tuesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 Wednesday KORD: 99 KLAF: 97 The one caveat is whether there are any storms to hold things down a bit. Right now, storm prospects don't look very good at least during most of the daylight hours, so am not expecting much of a problem as far as that goes. SW/WSW flow, deep mixing, and nearly full sun should allow near optimal warming on both days. In fact, I would not be shocked if one of the locally hotter locations in Chicago touches 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 went for a run; that june sun made it feel even warmer than i expected. only 84F here at the house though, 83F at FCM. i'm certainly ready for some 90s. a 95F in the southern and southwestern burbs on tuesday wouldn't surprise me much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Quad Cities is talking about heavy rain issues later Wednesday through the weekend. At least some good rain will be nice after the early week torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Slightly OT, but you know what is frustrating? Golf is constantly halted for inclement weather, even seeing storms when the PGA Tour stop's location is calling for no chance of storms, like today, yet here we can't get these interesting storms. I wish it was the other way around, so I could see my golf and get my storms. Instead it's exactly the way I don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Today was the 4th 90+ day at Toledo. By comparison, during the hot summer, of 2010, the 4th such day wasn't until June 27. Looks like Toledo should rack up 3 more days of 90+ this week (with an outside shot at 4 if tomorrow continues the trend of temps far exceeding forecast values for northern Ohio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Sunday, June 5th: Hi: 87F Lo: 60F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 7MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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