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June 2011 general discussion/obs thread


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Geeesh what would that equate to? 103-105 with humidity....i like warmth but man that's nuts.

Looks like the models have taken it away. Sucks. Not gonna be able to get out there in a wifebeater anytime soon.

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LOT did a nice write up on the tornadoes that went through yesterday. One went right through my old place in Mt. Prospect...

A little factoid...the gap of only 6 days between tornadoes in Cook county (South Holland on June 15) is the 2nd shortest since 1950.

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+28 850's next sat into MN on the euro.. I had hoped the firecracker heat held off until the vacation week 4th of July and it looks like I'm getting my wish. Commando swim trunks for the win everyday instead of the cotton boxers and bloomers that feel like you're wearing a wet dish cloth that's pasted with elmer's glue and stuck to you.

Sure would be nice to get the heat wave out of the way early in late June and early July and have the spring and early summer pattern roll on. Have some real doubts but who knows.

Looking like our streak of below 80 degree high temps will end at 18 next Monday, but its possible we could squeak out 3 weeks before the heat rolls in.

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+28 850's next sat into MN on the euro.. I had hoped the firecracker heat held off until the vacation week 4th of July and it looks like I'm getting my wish. Commando swim trunks for the win everyday instead of the cotton boxers and bloomers that feel like you're wearing a wet dish cloth that's pasted with elmer's glue and stuck to you.

Sure would be nice to get the heat wave out of the way early in late June and early July and have the spring and early summer pattern roll on. Have some real doubts but who knows.

Looking like our streak of below 80 degree high temps will end at 18 next Monday, but its possible we could squeak out 3 weeks before the heat rolls in.

How were the storms around your place on Tuesday? I need some good detail, b/c I'm in Maine this week, and I knew we would have some storms blast through in that time.

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Was reading the forecast disco for NWS Amarillo (Texas) and they mentioned the NAM showed H85 temps of 38C in parts of their CWA tomorrow... said if that verifies, the all-time record high of 108 at Amarillo could be broken. I know Tallahassee, FL set an all-time record of 105 last week. When is all of this lovely heat going to come north?

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Ya agreed. I was going back through the blizzard thread awhile back lol

Lol same here man. I will always look back at that thread when i'm missing the white stuff..

I've done that a few times, priceless memories.

We need a one-stop archive of all winter storm threads. Maybe when I get some time I'll throw something together...

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Looking at the forecast models and the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook, I think my original forecast for July stands (even though it was described by a board member as the "blind leading the blind"). Current indications are that the heat dome that has been stuck over Texas really since April/May will shift north, allowing a weakness in the height pattern to shift into Texas. This could result in copious tropical rains and widespread flooding across southern and eastern Texas, and perhaps the threat of one or more landfalling tropical cyclones. Rainfall along the Gulf Coast could average 150 to 300% of normal. Further to the north, a dome of heat will develop with widespread 90s and 100s and it could get locked in for much of the month of July. The further north and east you go into the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes, the greater the likelihood for occasional breaks in the heat with cool front passages -- but don't expect any relief in the Central Plains region. Temps could range from 2 to 7 degrees above normal in these locations. Heat indices could peak as high as 105 to 110 degrees in spots.

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Was reading the forecast disco for NWS Amarillo (Texas) and they mentioned the NAM showed H85 temps of 38C in parts of their CWA tomorrow... said if that verifies, the all-time record high of 108 at Amarillo could be broken. I know Tallahassee, FL set an all-time record of 105 last week. When is all of this lovely heat going to come north?

Yeah, TLH hit 105 on 6/15/11. The high/low that day was 105/73, a departure of +8.

It's funny they set an all-time record high on a day that was only 8 degrees above normal. It just shows how uniform their summer temps are.

Is that really correct about Amarillo? H85 temps of 38C are crazy, even on a forecast model...

EDIT: yep...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS

THE H5 RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST NEAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. AS A

RESULT...DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN

DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN TEMPERATURES WARMING.

H85 TEMPS WARM TO 31 C TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 38 C IF THE NAM IS

CORRECT. IF THIS VERIFIES...RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN

JEOPARDY...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH OF 108 AT AMARILLO.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DOES

DEVELOP HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUTS A DENT

INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...THINK THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AT

THIS POINT.

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Yeah, TLH hit 105 on 6/15/11. The high/low that day was 105/73, a departure of +8.

It's funny they set an all-time record high on a day that was only 8 degrees above normal. It just shows how uniform their summer temps are.

Is that really correct about Amarillo? H85 temps of 38C are crazy, even on a forecast model...

Yeah, it's correct. I checked... there's a large area of 36C centered over NW Texas and NE New Mexico, so there's probably a max of 38C in the middle of that area.

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Was reading the forecast disco for NWS Amarillo (Texas) and they mentioned the NAM showed H85 temps of 38C in parts of their CWA tomorrow... said if that verifies, the all-time record high of 108 at Amarillo could be broken. I know Tallahassee, FL set an all-time record of 105 last week. When is all of this lovely heat going to come north?

Wow! NWS forecasting up to 118 degrees along the Rio Grande. For comparison sake, the all-time Texas high temp is 120.

======================================================================================

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX301 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FORPORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY....A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURESALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING.TXZ079-081-240915-/O.NEW.KMAF.HT.Y.0002.110624T2100Z-110627T0200Z/PRESIDIO VALLEY-BIG BEND AREA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRESIDIO...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON301 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY...* TEMPERATURE...107 TO 118 DEGREES.* IMPACTS...SUNSTROKE...HEAT CRAMPS...OR HEAT EXHAUSTION IS POSSIBLE WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHENPOSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OREVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEATSTROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHENPOSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY ANDHEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKSIN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS.ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADEDLOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.&&$$

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GFS bringing in 850's of 24C here on Monday. We'd be 98-100 if it verified and we mixed that high but it doesn't look like mixing levels are that good.

It also brings 850s to 27C in MSP on Thursday morning.

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