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June 2011 general discussion/obs thread


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LAF and ORD neck and neck at 85º at 11AM ET/10AM CT. Who wins this race today? :scooter:

Chicago, no brainer.

Besides the fact that Chicago has a better UHI effect to aid their temperature rise, the fact that they're already just as warm or warmer than areas to the east despite them being a hour earlier suggests they're going to seriously torch today.

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I agree about the UH effectI, but given that LAF/ORD are near the same longitude, the hour difference effect can be negated.

Chicago, no brainer.

Besides the fact that Chicago has a better UHI effect to aid their temperature rise, the fact that they're already just as warm or warmer than areas to the east despite them being a hour earlier suggests they're going to seriously torch today.

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IKK should be fun to watch today. Notoriously on the warm side, last update at 10:35AM was sitting at 93º. :devilsmiley:

Chicago, no brainer.

Besides the fact that Chicago has a better UHI effect to aid their temperature rise, the fact that they're already just as warm or warmer than areas to the east despite them being a hour earlier suggests they're going to seriously torch today.

We'll see. Hour time difference won't really matter much, as kab pointed out. And trust me, LAF has its own "UHI effect".

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CU's rapidly developing along the old outflow boundary from the MCS earlier

This is one day I can do without convection, so hopefully it mixes back out so we can rturn back to full sunshine.

HRRR has been...erm...interesting for our area today lol. But I've noticed the one thing it usually struggles with are cap busts, so I'm really not inclined to believe its solution for today lol.

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HRRR has been...erm...interesting for our area today lol. But I've noticed the one thing it usually struggles with are cap busts, so I'm really not inclined to believe its solution for today lol.

Oh jeez i should not have even looked at that....

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taken from the DVN AFD regarding the heat and thunderstorms tomorrow evening

HOT ENOUGH FOR YA...TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING TODAY HAVE

HELD GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE CWA

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING

EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALL ALONG THE FRONT.

CAPES OF AT LEAST 3000-4000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEARING

2 INCHES SUGGEST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONCERNED THAT STORMS WILL BE PARALLEL

TO THE UPPER FLOW WHICH WOULD CAUSE TRAINING OF STORMS AS THE

FRONT SLOWS SO THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD INCREASE.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK FOR ENTIRE CWA.

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IKK should be fun to watch today. Notoriously on the warm side, last update at 10:35AM was sitting at 93º. :devilsmiley:

We'll see. Hour time difference won't really matter much, as kab pointed out. And trust me, LAF has its own "UHI effect".

95 as of 10:55, serious triple digit contender

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IKK should be fun to watch today. Notoriously on the warm side, last update at 10:35AM was sitting at 93º. :devilsmiley:

We'll see. Hour time difference won't really matter much, as kab pointed out. And trust me, LAF has its own "UHI effect".

Looks pleasant in LAF currently 89/73. :lol:

Glad I'm in Bethlehem, PA until Friday. :scooter:

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taken from the DVN AFD regarding the heat and thunderstorms tomorrow evening

HOT ENOUGH FOR YA...TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING TODAY HAVE

HELD GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE CWA

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING

EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALL ALONG THE FRONT.

CAPES OF AT LEAST 3000-4000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEARING

2 INCHES SUGGEST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONCERNED THAT STORMS WILL BE PARALLEL

TO THE UPPER FLOW WHICH WOULD CAUSE TRAINING OF STORMS AS THE

FRONT SLOWS SO THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD INCREASE.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK FOR ENTIRE CWA.

12z NAM showing the line settling across Northen Illinois into the overnight, decent potential for some loud ones.

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That woke me up this morning just after 5.

Environment Canada has upped our high temeperature for tomorrow from the high 80s (31C) to the low 90s (34C). They are calling for a hot and dry summer, but I think it will be a variable summer with near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, more inline with the Weather Network, Accuwether and Anthony Farnell of Global TV. There will be periods of intense heat, like tomorrow, but the upper low over Eastern Canada will help bring periods of cool and refreshing weather.

I like the variable summer with more precip. you are calling for. That pattern lends itself to a super rare derecho around here. Heat pumping to the midwest and a blocked type low spinning east of us is like July 1995. Was able to see the Ontario-Adirondacks derecho as i was awoken by my windows being bashed by the wind.

http://www.spc.noaa....derechopage.htm

Two MCS storms already last four days maybe even tonight.

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