Chinook Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It looks like some ingredients for strong supercells could be in areas from Rochester to the Adirondacks tomorrow. GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO UPSTATE NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. This is the SREF significant tornado parameter for 21z tomorrow. This is not usually so high for northern locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFMass Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It looks like some ingredients for strong supercells could be in areas from Rochester to the Adirondacks tomorrow. This is the SREF significant tornado parameter for 21z tomorrow. This is not usually so high for northern locations. GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO UPSTATE NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. 9z SREF was much more impressive with sigtor, but being from Montreal I might take a chance in NY State... Only hope there is something outside the Addirondaks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I'll be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looking at it further- I am confused as to what the maximum risk of severe weather is tomorrow. The system may have washed out some of its potential by creating so many storms today. Lapse rates and CAPE values may be less than the models say. Maybe Pennsylvania to western West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 502 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. • DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. STAY ALERT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I've had central PA pinged as the main event... going to be chasing in southern PA today. Going to try to keep it in the better chase territory S/E of I-81 unless the storms don't fire down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I've had central PA pinged as the main event... going to be chasing in southern PA today. Going to try to keep it in the better chase territory S/E of I-81 unless the storms don't fire down there. When you say south East of I-81, are you talking like Lebanon/Lancaster counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 When you say south East of I-81, are you talking like Lebanon/Lancaster counties? They would be east of 81, so yes. Quick MSPaint mock-up of the chase target area: Hopefully discrete storms can initiate somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 They would be east of 81, so yes. Quick MSPaint mock-up of the chase target area: Hopefully discrete storms can initiate somewhere in there. Great, Cumberland County. Find the north East corner of the county, where Cumberland, Perry and dauphin meet, and thats where i'm at! Good luck on your chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Great, Cumberland County. Find the north East corner of the county, where Cumberland, Perry and dauphin meet, and thats where i'm at! Good luck on your chase I can tell ya that I'm favoring the westernmost part of that target... if not further west than that. Today's area is indeed restricted by terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I can tell ya that I'm favoring the westernmost part of that target... if not further west than that. Today's area is indeed restricted by terrain. Yep. The mountain that runs along I-81 through Cumberland County either helps or hurts us (depending on how you look at it) all year long Thanks for the updates. I'll keep my eyes peeled this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thinking part of central PA into southern NY might get/need a 10% TOR risk area today... parameters are looking rather impressive for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thinking part of central PA into southern NY might get/need a 10% TOR risk area today... parameters are looking rather impressive for the region. What is your thinking for timing, Late afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 What is your thinking for timing, Late afternoon? Typical late afternoon/early evening stuff (later as you go further east... maybe not at all!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 What is your thinking for timing, Late afternoon? Hey, we can't complain. We had one dry day in a row. Here's hoping the boomers don't boom like they've done out in the midwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Typical late afternoon/early evening stuff (later as you go further east... maybe not at all!) Thats what i thought. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Hey, we can't complain. We had one dry day in a row. Here's hoping the boomers don't boom like they've done out in the midwest... You just made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The atmosphere is sure warming up in W/CNY and further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Boom A large portion of the highligted area is N and W of I81...I've been reading that guys on here are chasing S and E of 81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 big storm near saranac lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thinking part of central PA into southern NY might get/need a 10% TOR risk area today... parameters are looking rather impressive for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We can't seem to get out of the cloud cover here which is def going to cut down the cape values. Wow eastern PA is looking prime for maximum heating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We can't seem to get out of the cloud cover here which is def going to cut down the cape values. Wow eastern PA is looking prime for maximum heating! Maximum heating, but minimal forcing I wouldn't be surprised if far eastern PA had little to show for today (though stuff is still possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We can't seem to get out of the cloud cover here which is def going to cut down the cape values. Wow eastern PA is looking prime for maximum heating! Its really warming up nicely in South Central Pa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado watch up for norther NY. Nothing here in Central NY yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 TOR probs increased to 10% 1116 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NW NEW ENGLAND TO CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... ..LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND A BELT OF STRONG /50-70 KT/ 500 MB FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF OPENING MIDLEVEL LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN W OF REGION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER CNTRL PA/NY AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 65-70 F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN INTO CNTRL NY. WHEN COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N-CNTRL/NERN PA INTO THE MID/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY BACKED NEAR GROUND WINDS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ------------ MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261555Z - 261730Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF PA AND NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IT APPEARS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SOON CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND WITH TIME A MATURING CU FIELD THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE NOTED GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado watch up for norther NY. Nothing here in Central NY yet. DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS ALREADY EVOLVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NERN NY WITHIN AN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 /PER BURLINGTON VWP/. INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Not sure how you guys aren't under a mod risk... 10% Tornado, 30% wind, 30% hatched hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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