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Chit chat and other Banter: May 25th severe weather


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No one's saying yesterday was a bust, that was a huge outbreak in OK.

I think the discussion of the bust is mostly for IL where the cells have become linear mostly. Looks like most of the action for big tornadoes is going to be further south than expected in MS/LA...

Pretty sure the high will verify in IL

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110 reports of tornadoes in 2 days is a bust? Might want to lower your standards a touch...

I never said anything about yesterday, that was a major outbreak. Today the SPC was calling for violent long track tornadoes if I recall correctly. Have there been any of those today?

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Why don't SEMI folk just move if they want storms. I'd love to move somewhere with actual worthy weather... but I can't think of any such place in Canada except for southern Ontario.

Im fine with no storms. Not sure why people want damaging hail, winds, flooding rains, and damaging tornadoes ITBY's. Once in awhile a derecho is fine. Had a nice tornado a mile down the road last august so that was enough severe weather for me. It is interesting to note that last year and so far this year the severe weather has stayed just south of here towards detroit and south. I understand why this year due to the cooler weather but last year it was a lot warmer than this spring.

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ah the internet where amateurs can use hind site to question the pros. What an amazing world we live in.

While none where long track violent tornadoes my county was under three tornado warnings from three separate storms at the same time earlier today. I don't think the forecast was a bust, but I forgot there has to be atleast a half dozen EF4s or more for half the forumers to even turn on their GR products.

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I never said anything about yesterday, that was a major outbreak. Today the SPC was calling for violent long track tornadoes if I recall correctly. Have there been any of those today?

70 reports of tornadoes today and night is far from over...

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Agree. I thought today was cool as hell. I would take a day like today any day over a risk of a major tornado outbreak or just severe weather. We had some wind, ton of lightning, frequent downpours (2-4") and hail! and no severe weather. My kind of day

I agree but a tad warmer would have been nice. 5th week of golf league this week and the course will be under water 3 out of the 5 weeks. Looks like a nice warm up and break from the rain after tomorrow. Lived here all my life and today was the first time I saw ponding on my lawn and my street. 21 mile is closed from romeo plank to 94, about 7 miles if road. That's also a first.

Any chance that line of storms makes it up here to M59?

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here's the entirety of the 1630 outlook...the most bullish of the day...what exactly about it do you take issue with, hawksfan?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN...SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SOUTHERN IND... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN MS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN LA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. A LARGE BAND OF 70+ KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCH FROM OK/TX INTO IL/KY/TN THIS MORNING...ACROSS A LARGE/MOIST WARM SECTOR. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN MO/AR EASTWARD TO EASTERN KY AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IND. THE RESULT WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING LONG-DURATION STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA...ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD LATER TODAY. TCU AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MO/AR. THE 15Z SGF RAOB SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. ONCE THESE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...THEY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS. FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...SPREADING INTO WEST TN AND SOUTHERN IND. 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF MULTIPLE STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. DURING THE EVENING...MULTIPLE LINES/CLUSTERS OF INTENSE/SUPERCELL STORMS AND BOWS MAY BE TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO A PROMINENT CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL JET...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS AREA...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER

SOUTH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

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If you have any outdoor activities you want done now would be a good time to do them.

I could almost take this as a threat. ;) But I'll assume it's sarcastic like my previous post was...

Anywho, some pea size hail and some decent gusty winds with the cells moving through. Sirens going off again. Can't remember so many in one day.

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ooops, yeah it was sarcastic. I don't mean you any harm.

Yeah I know. :)

:lmao:

lol, yeah. Anyway, pretty exciting day here. 4 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and 2 (or maybe 3) Tornado Warnings. Best part, no real damage that I know of locally.

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See no offense but this is kinda what I mean, talking in a definite tone is very dangerous with respect to meteorology. Sure there might be something to your comment about slight risks not meaning as much. but I think it has more to do with expectations. If we were in a high like last year with the Octobomb and it doesn't yield, people start wondering what happened to the severe weather that was expected. Where as if the Octobomb day was a slight for Michigan then the expectations would have been substantially lower.

I think the whole point of this is that to me it seems silly to complain about weather missing or not missing the area, and for whatever reason our locale all of a sudden has a larger than normal amount of complaining going on.

That's true, but there are only two options on this forum: ignore what you don't want to read, or ban posters who complain constantly. The Milky Way will collide with Andromeda before the latter happens, so we can only do the first. I've never understood why people find it so hard to quickly scan down pages of one thread and pick out the info they want while ignoring the rest. It takes me about 10 seconds to parse each thread page for pertinent info.

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That's true, but there are only two options on this forum: ignore what you don't want to read, or ban posters who complain constantly. The Milky Way will collide with Andromeda before the latter happens, so we can only do the first. I've never understood why people find it so hard to quickly scan down pages of one thread and pick out the info they want while ignoring the rest. It takes me about 10 seconds to parse each thread page for pertinent info.

No I understand, but when its members from my area that constantly complaining I do feel the need to make a comment...

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No I understand, but when its members from my area that constantly complaining I do feel the need to make a comment...

Wasn't meaning to single you out with that post. I just think it's silly to have things like banter threads when it's not that hard to keep things contained in one thread and just find info you're looking for. That inability (and not banning troublemakers) is what lead to the creation of all the subforums and the death of the main community. It will eventually happen to this subforum and we'll have a massive dropdown list of central/western regions.

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whoever called bust today should just be automatically 5ppd.... TThe event isn't even over, the survery teams havent been sent out, and they're calling no ef-3's... DOY!:facepalm:

Thank you to the level headed people in here for keeping these ignorant people at bay

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Wasn't meaning to single you out with that post. I just think it's silly to have things like banter threads when it's not that hard to keep things contained in one thread and just find info you're looking for. That inability (and not banning troublemakers) is what lead to the creation of all the subforums and the death of the main community. It will eventually happen to this subforum and we'll have a massive dropdown list of central/western regions.

I'm not too concerned about this region busting up that much, but I do understand your point about some of the troublemakers/super weenies. The ban hammer should have been dropped a couple times yesterday but wasn't unfortunately. Although this banter thread isnt exactly a bad idea either.

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