downeastnc Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Some supercells would definitely be nice but the hodos don't look great that is for sure. I am thinking linear and/or multicells for the most part. I don't mind witnessing a good downburst now and then . Clouds hanging tougher than I would like, can see some peeks of blue sky but vis shot doesnt look great for an extended period of sun here. I am gonna be pissed if that little .15" of a inch this morning ends up being all we get and the reason the one this afternoon stay west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Happy Slight Risk Sunday in NC. CAPE certainly won't be a problem once the CIN erodes with heating. There is some slight veering in the profile but shear is primarily unidirectional (speed shear) and should be enough for some decent organization. Inverted V soundings point to a damaging wind / microburst threat with impressive low level lapse rates. Picking a target all comes down to where the triggers set up between a trough in the peidmont, remnant MCV, and outflow boundaries. Farther east the sea breeze front may come into play but this morning's convection in NE NC may leave some debris clouds to inhibit heating out there. My target based on all of this and the position of the trough/front at peak time is CLT to perhaps as far east as FAY. NE SC coast may be a good spot, plenty of heating here and little to no cloud cover maybe some seabreeze interaction later too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Been looking at some long range projections that would suggest ENSO neutral or weak El-Nino conditions appear likely by Fall. The only thing that helps get me through the heat of Summer is the prospect of a good winter......... Got the grass cut yesterday, now bring on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Steep low level lapse rates in place (8.0°C for some areas) with SBCAPE values ranging from 1000-3500 across the Carolinas. The sun's at full force here bumping my temperature to around 90 with a 67 DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I'm not a meteorologist,but someday hope to be one. Anyways low level lapse rates are around 8.0-8.5C/KM and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.5C/KM. Right now a possible damaging wind event looks to be in its infancy stage over western KY. High CAPE values, high low level lapse rates, decent wind field present, as well as some surface shear with a sea breeze boundary potentially in play and with immense sunshine, cu field is developing across southern NC. Convective temperatures should be reached today and there is minimal CINH, so the cap should erode today with CAPE pooling potentially evident across most of SC and NC as well as TN. Right now eastern NC and Northeastern SC should be in the best position for some dangerous storms later this afternoon into this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Clouds hanging tougher than I would like, can see some peeks of blue sky but vis shot doesnt look great for an extended period of sun here. I am gonna be pissed if that little .15" of a inch this morning ends up being all we get and the reason the one this afternoon stay west of us. Yeah that is clearly showing up on the mesoanalysis now with CIN still in place where the morning convection rolled through. Take a drive my way .: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 NE SC coast may be a good spot, plenty of heating here and little to no cloud cover maybe some seabreeze interaction later too 3000 SB Cape right now just inland and the seabreeze boundary should get things rolling there for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 DCAPE is very high for sure! No problem getting those damaging winds with anything that fires up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The screw job here could come on the account of subsidence on the backside of that remnant MCV. May have to wait for evening in which case parameters won't be as great and it will be getting dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Been looking at some long range projections that would suggest ENSO neutral or weak El-Nino conditions appear likely by Fall. The only thing that helps get me through the heat of Summer is the prospect of a good winter......... Got the grass cut yesterday, now bring on the rain. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The screw job here could come on the account of subsidence on the backside of that remnant MCV. May have to wait for evening in which case parameters won't be as great and it will be getting dark. Also worries me that the MCS in Tennessee has taken a more southward trajectory from this morning. May get a more scattered coverage instead of an organized line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I saw a grass fire on I-285 W a few hours ago on the way home from Columbus, GA. Really reminded me how much we need the rain. Haven't had a drop since May 26. Radar is showing promise in Tennessee so I hope that makes its way down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Been looking at some long range projections that would suggest ENSO neutral or weak El-Nino conditions appear likely by Fall. The only thing that helps get me through the heat of Summer is the prospect of a good winter......... Got the grass cut yesterday, now bring on the rain. Amen, brother!! There is no redeeming value to this incessant heat..and throw drought in on top of that....blahhhh..... suffering compounded by boredom Another cool one here. Only 94. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 The screw job here could come on the account of subsidence on the backside of that remnant MCV. May have to wait for evening in which case parameters won't be as great and it will be getting dark. Rah mentioned this yesterday as a possibilty for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Amen, brother!! There is no redeeming value to this incessant heat..and throw drought in on top of that....blahhhh..... suffering compounded by boredom Another cool one here. Only 94. T It would definitely be nice if we could at least get some afternoon storms every day. I guess one good thing about the lack of rain is there is no need to cut the grass. I cut it 8 days ago and it shows no signs of growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Storm firing up in Rutherford County with a Severe T-Storm Warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 337 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Finally beginning to see that convection fire across NC. Watching a storm to my north as it pushes southward in Wilkes county. If it holds, I may end up getting something down my way later. Still looking rather rough back near the Forest City area: Polk County, NC Severe Thunderstorm 56 dBZ Severe Hail: 30% Chance Hail: 100% Chance Max Hail Size: .75" Top: 38,000 ft. VIL: 45 kg/m² Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Finally beginning to see that convection fire across NC. Watching a storm to my north as it pushes southward in Wilkes county. If it holds, I may end up getting something down my way later. Still looking rather rough back near the Forest City area: Polk County, NC Severe Thunderstorm 56 dBZ Severe Hail: 30% Chance Hail: 100% Chance Max Hail Size: .75" Top: 38,000 ft. VIL: 45 kg/m² Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 A strong storm is just missing me 3 miles east. I've been outside watching the lightning and atleast getting to feel the cooling outflow winds. The tree tops are shaking wildly now. In Tennessee, a lot of the severe cells are east of the watch box area now, with no box...just shows how minute fluctuations can cause storms anywhere near the boxed area. The I-77 corridor in NC looks to be lining up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 A strong storm is just missing me 3 miles east. I've been outside watching the lightning and atleast getting to feel the cooling outflow winds. The tree tops are shaking wildly now. In Tennessee, a lot of the severe cells are east of the watch box area now, with no box...just shows how minute fluctuations can cause storms anywhere near the boxed area. The I-77 corridor in NC looks to be lining up now. yea that one looks pretty rough, really hoping we can get a nice solid downpour eventually. Its actually raining pretty good now with some small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 "AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AN DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STONY POINT...OR 7 MILES EAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT15 MPH." Note: All cells are moving southeast in the radar image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Looks like the storms over the northern foothills are beginning to organize now. Need a good dousing of rain as I noticed the grass crunching under my feet for the first time today. That six and a half inches of rain I received in May is rapidly drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 yea that one looks pretty rough, really hoping we can get a nice solid downpour eventually. Its actually raining pretty good now with some small hail just started pouring here, large drops. No hail though. The cell developed along the northend toward town, and is backbuilding more (maybe). Love how the air is so cool outside now. 77 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 New Severe thunderstorm warning: * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southeastern Alexander County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... eastern Catawba County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Iredell County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... * until 545 PM EDT * at 435 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Stony Point... or 7 miles east of Taylorsville... moving southeast at 15 mph. * Locations impacted include... Stony Point... Scotts... Lookout Shoals Lake... Statesville and Catawba... Troutman... Terrell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Here are my thoughts on this afternoon's activity... things look like they are firing up quickly! http://www.avlweatherblog.com/2011/06/05/severe-thunderstorms-possible-this-afternoon-as-the-heat-continues-into-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Decent storm off to the NW headed this way. Might get cooled off soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 pretty large clusters of thunderstorms have fired every 20 to 30 miles in most of west NC the last couple of hours. This may bode well for South Carolinas chances later on if they can organize. My temp has dropped to 74, and am enjoying this nice thundershower. After last year's continuous misses, I feel pretty lucky lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Decent storm off to the NW headed this way. Might get cooled off soon. Look to be headed down here. Severe t-storm warnings up. Got some pretty decent hail markers on level 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 pretty large clusters of thunderstorms have fired every 20 to 30 miles in most of west NC the last couple of hours. This may bode well for South Carolinas chances later on if they can organize. My temp has dropped to 74, and am enjoying this nice thundershower. After last year's continuous misses, I feel pretty lucky lately. yea I like this getting hit with a storm every time theres a chance (knock on wood). Looks like some more might head our way. Surprised its lasted this long usually we stop getting rain by the end of May, maybe this summer will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 pretty large clusters of thunderstorms have fired every 20 to 30 miles in most of west NC the last couple of hours. This may bode well for South Carolinas chances later on if they can organize. My temp has dropped to 74, and am enjoying this nice thundershower. After last year's continuous misses, I feel pretty lucky lately. Yea its certainly shaping up to be a busy afternoon and evening for GSP and CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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