WilkesboroDude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Radar Down...serving north-west North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Checking out the radar and increasing instability in the atmosphere around North Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Once again the Euro is taking its lead from the very consistent GFS model. No longer does it have the huge Southeast heat wave this weekend, instead has a slight one early next week. With both models keeping ridging in central Canada, its similar to split flow, so a branch of the westerlies should continue to carry impulses west to east, and topping the ridge somewhere into the Carolinas for the next 5 to possibly 7 days, before both models have a fundamental pattern change. So nothing really has changed in my thinking froma few days ago, the waves or MCC developments should develop like we're seeing now in TN, but not everybody will get them unfortunately, and some areas will get them repeatedly. I think eastern TN and nw NC are likely to have the best shots at the most rain and probably eventually the 77 corridor later this weekend in NC around CLT to GSO/INT as we've seen many times this season a pattern of convection either form in the mtns or propogate from west of the mtns and drift into that region. Thats also another reason I think temps will be kept in check in the CArolinas, with much more ground moisture in the foothills to western piedmont, plus the big heights never arrive here (even through 10 days)..and models tried erroneously to heat up CLT area too much with the previous heat wave. Looks like the GFS shows daily convection in the lee side of the Apps, which also fits whats been happening, before the next big change. West of the Apps, big heat but the worst is around TX to ARK and western TN, and not too long lasting b/c we can see a big change with a large central trough showing up by day 7 and that will potentially pick up a chunk of Gulf moisture (don't know about tropical yet) and dump it into the midwest , and maybe the Southeast , but thats out too far in time. The GFS has been showing a slow moving system in the Gulf for several runs as Dan mentioned, some runs had over 20" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 You can see the higher helicity across Tennessee. This could support rotating supercells that have the potential to produce some pretty large hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Bad timing with the current system moving in. thats for sure...hopefully they can get it back up soon. looks like your calls from earlier are falling into line, and noticed the storm watch out, thats why i love the board so much of course after being narrowly missed multiple times the last week i am wary that mby gets any rain its was gorgeous last night and this morning with low humidity and a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 RT @DopplerNC: GSP Doppler down until further notice... GSP's systems down as well. CAE (Columbia) providing backup #ncwx #scwx UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 First warning here in NC, So odd to see it being issued by Columbia, SC. Wondering when GSP will be back, hopefully soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Robert...do u realize what you said in the first sentence! HaHa! You can tell its not wintertime...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Radar is back up! Good view north-west of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 First clouds of the day going up here. Nice'n toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Nasty cells in the mountains of NC right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Robert...do u realize what you said in the first sentence! HaHa! You can tell its not wintertime...lol! yep, I know..but its true. I've got a lot of archived model runs and most of them showed indeed the GFS wins big over the Euro since January. Weird. But its patterns make sense and the Euro's a lot of time doesnt' lately, so until I see a reason to, I wouldn't diverge much from it. Used to be the complete opposite though. Anyway,looks pretty active soon for ga and NC. Also later tonight for SC and probably central GA and central Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 yep, I know..but its true. I've got a lot of archived model runs and most of them showed indeed the GFS wins big over the Euro since January. Weird. But its patterns make sense and the Euro's a lot of time doesnt' lately, so until I see a reason to, I wouldn't diverge much from it. Used to be the complete opposite though. Anyway,looks pretty active soon for ga and NC. Also later tonight for SC and probably central GA and central Al. Robert Does it look to be widespread storms tonight? Or just certain areas going to get rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I can't tell you how nice it is to hear rain on the roof. It's rained twice this week and today has been a soaker as I'm on the northern end of the slug of moisture rolling through the TN Valley. Folks just to my south are getting some pretty strong storms. Edit: 64F at 4:30. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Here is a better resolution of the image above... almost can see a hook with the northern cell... there is some minor rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 NWS Blacksburg WRF-arw has the center of this complex coming across northwest North Carolina (watauga-ashe) between 8p-11p. Model cape values 400-800 j/kg exist across the mountain Empire...New River valley and into the northwest North Carolina foothills until midnight. RUC surface analysis at 18z not to impressed with cape values over the area. Current thinking is that scattered strong to severe weather is possible for the southwestern portion of rnk County Warning Area...but may not need a watch. We will continue to monitor the weather and update as need through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Tornado Warnings being issued in Kentucky with that small line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Robert Does it look to be widespread storms tonight? Or just certain areas going to get rain? looks like most of central and western NC overnight gets hit hard, but the convection is going to fight dry and lower dewpoint air esp. where you are, but further south near GA,NCSC borders will probably ramp up to severe. The entire wave is propagating east but the line segments look like they're dropping southeast or due south in east TN. Probably this will get most of the Carolinas except maybe the southern part of SC with atleast some rain, and the further inland sections will probably turn into a huge mass of solid rain tonight, before ending. This is just round one of several for you over the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 looks like most of central and western NC overnight gets hit hard, but the convection is going to fight dry and lower dewpoint air esp. where you are, but further south near GA,NCSC borders will probably ramp up to severe. The entire wave is propagating east but the line segments look like they're dropping southeast or due south in east TN. Probably this will get most of the Carolinas except maybe the southern part of SC with atleast some rain, and the further inland sections will probably turn into a huge mass of solid rain tonight, before ending. This is just round one of several for you over the next 6 days. I when you talk like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 I like my chances of some heavy rain and possible severe in the next 2 hours or so. I'm on the red dot near Atlanta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Storm keeps on rolling over Asheville... worst of it is crossing I-40 right by where I-26 and I-240 merges... not warned currently but certainly looks impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I like my chances of some heavy rain and possible severe in the next 2 hours or so. I'm on the red dot near Atlanta! I'm ~8 NW of there. I like our chances too. Nice little line to our WNW. Severe Thunderstorm Watch extended to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 SPC Numerous severe storms persist across the watch area. Thus far the main threat has been large hail...with most of the activity being single cells. However...activity has begun to merge over middle and eastern Tennessee...with signs of outflow surging southeastward over eastern Tennessee. This may result in an increased wind threat eventually spreading into northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Thus...additional counties are likely to be added to the eastern part of the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Glad there's nothing brewing in the tropics... Message Date: Jun 13 2011 15:08:06 KMHX 88D WILL BE DOWN UNTIL JUNE 24TH FOR INSTALLATION OF DUAL POL HARDWARE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 The line from Newport, TN to Andrews, NC has my interest the most. Graham county actually has a TVS on it from its cell that's currently crossing the area. Large severe thunderstorm-warning in place associated with that particular segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 The line from Newport, TN to Andrews, NC has my interest the most. Graham county actually has a TVS on it from its cell that's currently crossing the area. Large severe thunderstorm-warning in place associated with that particular segment. the latest run of the RUC(not great I know) has very strong VV over our region, roughly northeast GA to western SC and southern NC the next few hours and expands that out. In fact a small low develops north of Athens, I'm not sure if its just trying to do that b/c of the front and gathering some spin or its a sort of mesoscale convective vortex, very rare here. Either way, it congeals and expands a huge mass of rain as it comes our way and then into most of NC later tonight. There's a strong temp gradient right now in GA to here, with 70s in NC and upper 90s in northern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Not having KGSP up and running really puts a cramp in watching these storms...I'm currently using Morristown which shows the cell east of Asheville shrinking...yet the thunder has really picked up here in the last 10 minutes. It may be running far enough away from the Morristown site or maybe it is getting weaker... Also, this airmass that was in place this morning is really doing a good job eating away at the front portion of the rain shield...that should begin to moisten up for us over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 the latest run of the RUC(not great I know) has very strong VV over our region, roughly northeast GA to western SC and southern NC the next few hours and expands that out. In fact a small low develops north of Athens, I'm not sure if its just trying to do that b/c of the front and gathering some spin or its a sort of mesoscale convective vortex, very rare here. Either way, it congeals and expands a huge mass of rain as it comes our way and then into most of NC later tonight. There's a strong temp gradient right now in GA to here, with 70s in NC and upper 90s in northern Alabama. Really hoping we can get a good thunderstorm here accompanied with a lot of rain, really sucks having to use MRX's radar. The line entering Southwestern NC, near Cullowhee, from Tennessee just got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Things are about get nasty across Western North Carolina... a developing squall line is starting to bow out across the region... there will likely be an enhanced threat of damaging winds with this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Big storm to my west. Marker for hail to 1.75" in diameter and I can already hear rumbles. May slide NW of me though. It'll be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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