FoothillsNC Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Finally got a real storm with at least 20 mins of heavy rain at this point .50" is better than nothing, overall though this event ended up rather lame around here with parts of the county not getting more than a few .10". thats a start. Hopefully more to come, but atleast its something. CAE...At least they said rain is possible .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. MUCH OF THE AREA COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM ON ANY GIVEN DAY. Hopefully it becomes more than isolated. Both GFS and NAM have Wednesday as being a pretty wild day in CAE. Guess they aren't buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Got lucky that a small cell fired up right on top of me and then as the outflow hit it backbuilt and really put a thumping on me. Not a lot of lightning but the rain added up to a quick 1.15 inches. Still got some light stuff coming but this was lucky because recently the outflows have been dry then refiring storms once past me but this time the timing was just right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Got lucky that a small cell fired up right on top of me and then as the outflow hit it backbuilt and really put a thumping on me. Not a lot of lightning but the rain added up to a quick 1.15 inches. Still got some light stuff coming but this was lucky because recently the outflows have been dry then refiring storms once past me but this time the timing was just right! thats good news. Radar shows pretty good coverage in east NC and ne SC. Probably will make it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 No screw job sunday that is for sure! Everything was just a tad late. Here is what I caught on a local chase within the county near Robbins, NC on 705 (The pottery highway). Lightning at 210 fps: Some stills: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Oh wow! Those are great pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 No screw job sunday that is for sure! Everything was just a tad late. Here is what I caught on a local chase within the county near Robbins, NC on 705 (The pottery highway). Lightning at 210 fps: Some stills: Great stuff Jeremy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Awesome video Jeremy... that is a wild lightning capture! As for the Wednesday severe weather threat... this is the type of hodograph we want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Awesome video Jeremy... that is a wild lightning capture! As for the Wednesday severe weather threat... this is the type of hodograph we want to see So what exactly does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I'm in Ocean Isle, NC, right on the NC/SC border. On the third floor of our beach rental, I can see the lightning in the distance as it advances toward the coast. The west wind is really picking up, and I hope the line stays together to make it all the way here. I haven't experienced a T-storm at the beach in any recent time that I can remember. It probably won't reach here until after midnight, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 So what exactly does this mean? A hodograph just a graphical diagram of the winds as you go up in the atmosphere. The x-axis is the u component (+ is west - is east) or zonal wind at certain levels of the atmosphere while the y-axis is the v component (+ is south - is north) or the meridional wind at certain levels of the atmosphere. Thus you can infer a shearing atmosphere by the way the winds chance in both intensity and direction as you increase in height. The particular sounding I am showing shows a strong veering wind profile, or winds initially starting out of the southeast and quickly veering to the west as you increase in height. It is this clockwise turning that is normally favorable for warm air advection as well as allowing for rotating supercells given the right thermodynamic environment. Thus, seeing profiles in a hodograph that form a semi-circle that crosses the top two quadrants of the graph is normally an indication of favorable shear that may support severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Awesome video Jeremy... that is a wild lightning capture! As for the Wednesday severe weather threat... this is the type of hodograph we want to see Holy crap! Pretty impressive being this is primarily HCLS season. Thank you all for the compliments on the footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thanks for explaning that Phil. So, I'm assuming we're in for some pretty severe weather this week then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thanks for explaning that Phil. So, I'm assuming we're in for some pretty severe weather this week then? Well shear is just one part of the equation... we also need a good thermodynamic environment. The thing is that normally during the summer we are thermodynamically primed in the southeast since there is often plenty of CAPE thanks to warm temperatures and the close proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. However, we don't often get organized severe weather in the summer because we simply don't have the proper shear in the atmosphere to create organized cells since most upper level impulses ride by to our north. Most of the time we have to rely on localized shear created by outflow boundaries and orographic effects, but that only allows for temporary severe weather threats since this is a local atmospheric chance, and not a shearing environment already in place in the atmosphere. However, with our weather pattern changing and the upper level ridge shifting to the central part of the United States, enough of an upper level impuse may move through to create a shear induced environment that allows organized severe weather either in the from of an MCS or even supercells. On another side note, it also looks like we will be in the favorable orientation of an upper level jet streak. This could help enhance our potential for severe weather further in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I really appreciate all of your well detailed explanations. I've only been really watching the weather closely for about 2 months and I'm not totally familiar with many meteorology terms which is why I have so many questions. Thanks for your help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 This may be a silly question but, is this looking like it's going to be another April 27th outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Tony....nada for me either Outflow boundary came and went with storms firing to my east, and I just got another text alert for haze Sorry to hear! Yep, I'm still 0 for June, and what is killing me now, is there is rain all around me in bucket loads (I think Psalm has been hoarding) so now I have to deal with the wretched humidity Robert has given me hope though!! I am so wanting the blocking to come back, and all the attendant wonders that will ensue. Heck, get some super power blocking, and an unusual wrinkle or two in the jets, some volcanic gasses..mix....and it's snow in June, lol. Ok, at this point I'd take a little rain...but I'm a firm believer in the power of blocking T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 This may be a silly question but, is this looking like it's going to be another April 27th outbreak? Not even close... that was a very extreme example of having both extreme shear and a very unstable atmosphere. While we have a decent shear profile this go around, its not even close to the extent of what can occur in April and May in the Southeast. The main threat on Wednesday will primarily be strong winds and perhaps large hail if we have some decent lapse rates. If the shearing profile above materialized as modeled we may also have an isolated tornado threat. Things should become much clearer as we get into the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ahhh, that's a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juspeachy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Not even close... that was a very extreme example of having both extreme shear and a very unstable atmosphere. While we have a decent shear profile this go around, its not even close to the extent of what can occur in April and May in the Southeast. The main threat on Wednesday will primarily be strong winds and perhaps large hail if we have some decent lapse rates. If the shearing profile above materialized as modeled we may also have an isolated tornado threat. Things should become much clearer as we get into the work week. I look forward to reading your blog updates. Thanks for the great explanation! I enjoy reading this forum everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 No screw job sunday that is for sure! Everything was just a tad late. Here is what I caught on a local chase within the county near Robbins, NC on 705 (The pottery highway). Lightning at 210 fps: Some stills: Amazing pics there Jeremy! Love the detail of the first one. Here are some of mine from Saturday's storm and a video showing the storm before it. It's a bunch of the best ones that I caught put together. During one of the clips, you'll hear a quick random conversation going on. That was just me speaking with my best friend's grandpa about the storm. Anyway, here they are: Friday's event Saturday's event And this is what nearly struck me while recording. WAAAAAY too close for comfort. The picture doesn't look like much due to how the camera was filming but it was much closer than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Driving back from Asheville was very interesting experience during late afternoon yesterday. Some major wind and hail damage for 1/4 mile on I-40 just east of Hickory with trees, leaves and branches . There were cars still parked there with flashers with what looked like windshield damage. Got home to see paltry rain results at my house. Saturday, .32" and Sunday, .06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Coming back from some family bidness down in Georgia, I drove through some impressive wind/rain along I-95 in Robeson County. Got back up to Harnett...nada. Not a drop all weekend. Sigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Amazing pics there Jeremy! Love the detail of the first one. Here are some of mine from Saturday's storm and a video showing the storm before it. It's a bunch of the best ones that I caught put together. During one of the clips, you'll hear a quick random conversation going on. That was just me speaking with my best friend's grandpa about the storm. Anyway, here they are: Friday's event Saturday's event And this is what nearly struck me while recording. WAAAAAY too close for comfort. The picture doesn't look like much due to how the camera was filming but it was much closer than this: I saw those and good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 NWS is not calling for rain but the thermodynamics show pretty unstable air. The Precipitable water could be higher but it looks like north Georgia could get a few storms despite FFC saying sunny day for Cobb County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 NWS is not calling for rain but the thermodynamics show pretty unstable air. The Precipitable water could be higher but it looks like north Georgia could get a few storms despite FFC saying sunny day for Cobb County. You must've gotten some rain yesterday. Radar showed a storm that blew up right over Marietta. Must have been a doozy cause I could her thunder all the way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 You must've gotten some rain yesterday. Radar showed a storm that blew up right over Marietta. Must have been a doozy cause I could her thunder all the way up here. It was a nasty one, windy and HEAVY rain, I'm looking for a repeat. Yesterday was the most rain I've had in a while, it was glorious!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It was a nasty one, windy and HEAVY rain, I'm looking for a repeat. Yesterday was the most rain I've had in a while, it was glorious!!! haha glad you got something. Not a drop here! SPC has us under a slight risk for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Well out of all those days with t-storm chances, I got a total of a whopping 0.40...even though it rained a lot more all around me and I mean close by too. Pathetic. That 0.40 didn't even make the grass greener, which surprised me. Now we enter another day or two without any chances. Can only hope the nw flow can provide some mcs's or storm complexes because these days with just isolated storms are just a kick in the groin here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 both NAM and GFS have a chance for something to develop over SC/e GA tonight, after 10pm or so. The front or weak boundary will lie nw to se, so a weak ripple could easily set off somthing, but they aren't dropping too much. By 18 hours or so a new MCC will be developing over Missouri and Iowa and that will start the ball rolling for the heightened activity thats coming for midweek and beyond. There's excellent 1000/500 thkns. pattern for them to develop on, so any of the many 5H vorts that are tracking southeastward will come into a favorable environment to spark atleast widespread thunderstorms, if not something more major like an MCC. We've already seen plenty of those in the Midwest, Lakes and our area this season, and this pattern is very conducive for more of them, possibly really big, destructive ones later on this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Well out of all those days with t-storm chances, I got a total of a whopping 0.40...even though it rained a lot more all around me and I mean close by too. Pathetic. That 0.40 didn't even make the grass greener, which surprised me. Now we enter another day or two without any chances. Can only hope the nw flow can provide some mcs's or storm complexes because these days with just isolated storms are just a kick in the groin here. Yeah in the same boat here. Only 0.46" here in the last three or four days and I know places close by got 1 or 2 inches of rain. Still though I have 1.13" for the month which isn't a bad start. Hopefully this upcoming pattern will bear fruit for both of us but I know you need it more than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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