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June


LithiaWx

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Better late than never. Looks like it is one the way. I am hoping to get a nice shelf and some lightning as the line comes into Moore. I just hope the outflow doesn't take over and race too far ahead to kill it.

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Better late than never. Looks like it is one the way. I am hoping to get a nice shelf and some lightning as the line comes into Moore. I just hope the outflow doesn't take over and race too far ahead to kill it.

It's the outflow that kept me dry today I think. Storms popped along it and the original storms died out. Had good rain less than 2 mlies away but not a drop here yet.

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It's the outflow that kept me dry today I think. Storms popped along it and the original storms died out. Had good rain less than 2 mlies away but not a drop here yet.

thats exactly what happened to me a few days ago when the storm was dropping due south. I just knew it would get here, but it completely died over me, reformed along the gust front to my south. There was a small stretch maybe 4 miles north-south that didn't get anything, and that was me. Meanwhile just less than 2 miles to my north, I drove through flooded streets and completely full ditches and ravines. I never seen 1" of rain that close and nothing here.

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This is going to be severe and its moving so rapidly. I'd bet the line has 60mph winds with it, and lots of hail just looking at it. I-77 between CLT and CAE are about to get raked.

I'm not going to get any of that line unless it builds to the south...BUT....I can't wait for the outflow boundary to get here and cool things off :weight_lift:

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I'm not going to get any of that line unless it builds to the south...BUT....I can't wait for the outflow boundary to get here and cool things off :weight_lift:

the outflow is showing up nicely now, it may spark its own development. Its a HUGE gustfront on the high res. radar. Stretches from near CLT to Edgefield and McCormick Co SC. I hope somethng develops for you.

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thats exactly what happened to me a few days ago when the storm was dropping due south. I just knew it would get here, but it completely died over me, reformed along the gust front to my south. There was a small stretch maybe 4 miles north-south that didn't get anything, and that was me. Meanwhile just less than 2 miles to my north, I drove through flooded streets and completely full ditches and ravines. I never seen 1" of rain that close and nothing here.

Looks like that is what is happening here today. Outflow races ahead of the parent storm, that storm dies then you get new development off the east. Looks like I'm going to get missed completely unless that other line moving through Catawba Co can build further south but that will be very unlikely with rain cooled air around. Oh well, looks like some good chances in the next 7-10 days. Things could get interesting further east as the large bowing outflow boundary interacts with the line dropping southeast through southern Cabarrus, and Stanley counties.

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Any video ? :)

Unfortunately no. When I tried to begin my recording, I had an error message saying: "Memory card is unusable." Went to look at it on the computer, only to find out that it needed reformatting right in the middle of the best part of the storm (don't know how that happened but it did). :thumbsdown: Not a total loss cause though. After that bit of excitement, it just did a good shower with the occasional rumbles of loud thunder and this occurred as the storm made its southward shift toward York, SC. I know down in the Sharon area, they got it pretty good with the severe thunderstorm that affected them. There will be more opportunities next time at least.

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Had severe TS warnings but I only saw 2 lightning flashes and only a brief 5 min downpour which did not leave any trace of rain in the gauge, it just dampened it. Oh well maybe the good rains will see me next week. At least the temps cooled down and the sun was obscured which made my animals happy.

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Initial cell I mentioned earlier died off and went to Statesville but a cell darted from Lincoln County due east and smacked us pretty good with some strong winds and crazy downpours.

Looks like another round is about to hit us in the next 20 minutes.

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Just got down browsing out side. Feels kinda surreal to see my place so green and dripping this time of year, I have to pinch myself. Got .47" from this one. The animals were out in full force and I found this guy sitting on a branch right beside the cedar at the driveway. He looked like he wanted to attack me.

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the outflow is showing up nicely now, it may spark its own development. Its a HUGE gustfront on the high res. radar. Stretches from near CLT to Edgefield and McCormick Co SC. I hope somethng develops for you.

I will be happy if it just moves the air around, I'm tired of my phone giving me alerts for haze :angry::lol:

Just got down browsing out side. Feels kinda surreal to see my place so green and dripping this time of year, I have to pinch myself. Got .47" from this one. The animals were out in full force and I found this guy sitting on a branch right beside the cedar at the driveway. He looked like he wanted to attack me.

If you would have taken another step he might have jumped on you :lol: It's nice to hear yby looks normal....it gives me hope :wub:

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Just got down browsing out side. Feels kinda surreal to see my place so green and dripping this time of year, I have to pinch myself. Got .47" from this one. The animals were out in full force and I found this guy sitting on a branch right beside the cedar at the driveway. He looked like he wanted to attack me.

I probably would have gotten around .50" myself if it were not for the shift. Glad you got hosed down back your way. From the looks of that video, if I were that squirrel I'd be looking like as if I wanted to attack someone after getting soaked so badly. That or perhaps it doesn't like being filmed. :lol: I had a squirrel in my tree earlier and it was rather upset from a black cat that tried to catch it. It was a refreshing experience though since it knocked my temperatures into the low 70s from the low 90s and with that breeze...man alive did it feel good outside.

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Just looking at longer range models it should be interesting to compare verification on todays 12Z runs of the GFS and EURO for late next week into next weekend. The EURO rapidly builds a strong 588+ ridge back over the southeast after midweek with very warm 850mb temperatures between 20-24 degrees. This mean very little rain chances with very hot temperatures. In fact according to the EURO many of us will approach 100 degrees next weekend.

Here is the EURO valid for 12Z Sunday morning.

post-962-0-78337800-1307921676.png

Contrast this to the GFS which does build the ridge back somewhat to the south but keeps a general trough over most of the eastern US. This allows sporadic short waves to move across the area with what Robert was talking about earlier with daily chances of showers and t-storms. Temperatures will be warm around 85-90 depending on cloud cover each day except Thursday and Friday where a brief surge of warmer air may allow for highs on the lower 90's.

post-962-0-54424000-1307926115.png

I think I will save these two images to see who wins. Right now if I was a betting man my money would be on the GFS as its done better in the medium range for last month or so and has decent support from its ensembles. Should be interesting to see which model trends towards the other and it would be a big score for the EURO if it ends up verifying.

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Just got down browsing out side. Feels kinda surreal to see my place so green and dripping this time of year, I have to pinch myself. Got .47" from this one. The animals were out in full force and I found this guy sitting on a branch right beside the cedar at the driveway. He looked like he wanted to attack me.

:lol: I've seen that before! At the campground...one came bouncing up the picnic table and looked like he was making a flying leap for father in law's lap.....guess he wanted that box of cheezits!!

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Just looking at longer range models it should be interesting to compare verification on todays 12Z runs of the GFS and EURO for late next week into next weekend.

I think I will save these two images to see who wins. Right now if I was a betting man my money would be on the GFS as its done better in the medium range for last month or so and has decent support from its ensembles. Should be interesting to see which model trends towards the other and it would be a big score for the EURO if it ends up verifying.

I was just going to post the same thing after looking at the run just now. I got to the point lately I don't even look much at it, or take the time b/c of how badly it is..its almost a given that it will catch up later with the GFS on later runs. If I recall its downfall was right after the Christmas storm or so. I'm sure someone has those verification stats, but no matter what they show the GFS has def. had the hot hand on showing a pattern change well in advance, for quite some time now. The previous run of the ECMWF had about 3 to 4 " of rain and a general swath of precip from nw to the Carolinas region during the next 7 days. This run has mostly one tenth to one quarter inch amount(and for most of the Southeast!) . The shifts the op model has been making is amazing (and more indicative of the old GFS). Like you, my money would be on the GFS.

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Picked up a paltry .37" between Friday morning and early this afternoon when I got back in town. First rainfall of the month here. The line tonight split right as it got here, giving us slightly more than a trace. Back to the hose detail in the morning. *sigh*

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Ah, I was just about to check the SPC. Thank you.

There was also this statement made for Wednesday from GSP

A NEW FEATURE ADVERTISED IN THE OP MODELSAND THE SREF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG ANEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING CWFA WED. THIS...ALONG WITHINCREASING DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD BE SETTING THESTAGE FOR A ROUND OF ORGANIZED AND LONG LASTING SEVERE STORMS WEDAFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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From Dr. Forbes' Facebook:

TUESDAY June 14

Scattered severe thunderstorms and a chance of a tornado in east KS, west-

central and north MO, southeast IA, west-central through southeast IL,

southwest IN, central KY, middle TN. Isolated severe thunderstorms in

southeast ND, east SD, east NE, west IA. TORCON - 4 north MO, west-central

IL. Continued storminess along the warm front in the central US and upper trough over ND to NE.

WEDNESDAY June 15

Severe thunderstorms along a warm front, possibly in clusters that roll

southeast, with wind, hail heavy rain and a chance of a couple of tornadoes,

in northwest through southeast MN, west-central and southwest WI, east IA,

north and east-central IL, west-central and south IN, central and east KY,

east half TN, west half NC, southwest VA, northeast GA, SC.

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There was also this statement made for Wednesday from GSP

A NEW FEATURE ADVERTISED IN THE OP MODELSAND THE SREF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG ANEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING CWFA WED. THIS...ALONG WITHINCREASING DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD BE SETTING THESTAGE FOR A ROUND OF ORGANIZED AND LONG LASTING SEVERE STORMS WEDAFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CAE...At least they said rain is possible :lol:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY ON

FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. MUCH OF

THE AREA COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM ON

ANY GIVEN DAY.

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