shaggy Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 this should get you this time, but as always when in a drought, strange things can (and do) happen. Seen that here plenty of times. This new pattern offers much lower heights across the area, esp. the further east you get into NC, and the GFS actually had surface lows to your south, still has several convective induced lows there in eastern GA as well, beginning mid week. We'll have to just wait and see how the overall pattern evolves, but its a very good look in the zone I had highlighted. I'd be extremely surprised if you don't somehow get several inches of rain out of this pattern by the time 10 days is done...its not a really hit or miss type convection pattern, but these systems should be much larger widespread masses of rain. And like I said, there are going to be several of them in a few days span, so certainly one of them will get you (if not several). Well the backpeddling has begun. Todays forecast was 60% after 4pm going to 50% tonight. Now this afternoon is at a whopping 0% and tonight is saying 40% after 8pm. The last few nights the storms have just fizzled quickly after sunset and I know we have a front driving this activity but i'm starting to get that feeling that we may see a repeat with the storms losing their punch quickly after dark. Hope you are right and I am wrong but my confidence in this event is waning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Looks like SPC has extended the slight risk areas to include more of the western Carolinas now. Already some decent storms firing over the mountains. Dew points have not really mixed out around here and have stayed in the 70-72 range all day. Should be another active afternoon and evening here in the piedmont as these storms organize into cluster and line segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ugh MHX just dropped us to 40% and now say anything that hits will be after 8pm vis sat loop doesnt do much to help either.........starting to smell like fail here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Well the backpeddling has begun. Todays forecast was 60% after 4pm going to 50% tonight. Now this afternoon is at a whopping 0% and tonight is saying 40% after 8pm. The last few nights the storms have just fizzled quickly after sunset and I know we have a front driving this activity but i'm starting to get that feeling that we may see a repeat with the storms losing their punch quickly after dark. Hope you are right and I am wrong but my confidence in this event is waning! I'm not talking about today's event/front. I'm talking about Tues PM and onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hope to get some much needed water this afternoon as the storms in the hills of NC are tracking my way right now. Late yesterday and last night I believe Union was the only county that did not get some rain in the upstate. Spartanburg,Cherokee,Rock Hill, Laurens all had storms pop up but it was like we had a dome over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Looks like SPC has extended the slight risk areas to include more of the western Carolinas now. Already some decent storms firing over the mountains. Dew points have not really mixed out around here and have stayed in the 70-72 range all day. Should be another active afternoon and evening here in the piedmont as these storms organize into cluster and line segments. They took out the central midlands................*sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I am in agreement with your thoughts Robert... we might have a slight break tomorrow before Tuesday and Wednesday ramp up big time with the rain and severe weather threat. Wednesday in particular seems to be a potential higher end severe threat for the southeast. Here is my updated blog on today's storms and this coming week. http://www.avlweatherblog.com/2011/06/12/pattern-change-ahead-cooler-and-wetter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I am hoping slight risk sunday doesn't turn into screw job sunday yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I am hoping slight risk sunday doesn't turn into screw job sunday yet again. Just looking upstream it seems that the action is coming... it just might be a little later than originally expected. I wonder if these individual cells were merge into an MCS or not by this evening. I think we will also get some convective development out ahead of the current storms in W NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 It's raining hard and it's glorious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Rain! Finally, on this side of Kingsport(and no, we aren't really that big) it rained. I'd say we picked up 0.2-.03 of water. The wind roared through at about 55-60 mph(maybe a little higher). My garden is a wreck, but I'll take the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Here is my updated blog on today's storms and this coming week. http://www.avlweathe...ler-and-wetter/ Great stuff, as always Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 A lot of rumbling IMBY...got a growing cell just east of me right over town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Radar is poised for the Carolinas foothills and atleast part of the midlands to piedmont. Hope they survive and grow..just got in and will look at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Radar is poised for the Carolinas foothills and atleast part of the midlands to piedmont. Hope they survive and grow..just got in and will look at the latest. Looks like you're area is about to get slammed Robert... I think we should see the line continue to fill in as storms advance further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 very humid, dead calm wind.... thunder slowly growing and getting darker outside. under the warning for the line coming in from Catawba Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I think the foothills and piedmont both could be in store for a long evening of storms. The storms that formed along the escarpment are now sliding east but I noticed some small cells flaring up back in the mountains...could that develop into a second cluster for Asheville/Hendersonville and the escarpement later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 very humid, dead calm wind.... thunder slowly growing and getting darker outside. under the warning for the line coming in from Catawba Co. It looks like that cell is decaying. sucks for me because I live west of 77. Some hope still remains for downtown Mooresville though from the cell near Statesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Sprinkles falling,dark to the N with some sharp lightning. Warning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 another pretty good one here. Bolts all around and heavy rain, but not as heavy as last night. The lightning is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Wow hail and high winds, and extreme rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 There should def. be a severe Tstorm warning here now . The lightning is vicious , the rain is so heavy I' can't see the trees in front of the house and the hail was pretty hard for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 1196< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...N-CNTRL/NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 122138Z - 122245Z A THREAT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CNTRL NC AND SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ATTM. RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGES SHOW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL NC SEWD INTO THE MTNS OF WRN SC. HOT BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE TSTMS HAS YIELDED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE SE. SFC T-TD SPREADS OF 20-25 DEG F ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG-SVR DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD THREAT. ..ROGERS.. 06/12/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 There should def. be a severe Tstorm warning here now . The lightning is vicious , the rain is so heavy I' can't see the trees in front of the house and the hail was pretty hard for a few minutes. Glad to see you cashing in this year after a decade of misery. Now just send it on this way please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 the line that just went through is now bowing, watch out Gastonia Rock Hill, Clover and Charlotte in the next few minutes. Still raining and .44" in the gauge. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 the line that just went through is now bowing, watch out Gastonia Rock Hill, Clover and Charlotte in the next few minutes. Still raining and .44" in the gauge. I'll take it. Guess I better brace myself for another beating haha. I'm out here right now looking at the sky and it is becoming progressively darker and more threatening. I'm surprised that there wasn't a severe thunderstorm warning for you either. Radar is looking impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Glad to see you cashing in this year after a decade of misery. Now just send it on this way please. thanks, its sure good to be on the receiving end finally. I've been doing great since around late March/early April. I honestly don't remember this many severe thunderstorms in my lifetime so closely packed. This county has been hard with major damage many times now, I think almost every neighborhood has atleast some damage from "something". The hail storms alone were enough, but we've had everything else to go with it. Looking ahead to Wednesday, I think we'll be tracking another severe outbreak around here as well, a much larger more organized one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Just popped a Severe T Warning to the East of Robert. Bow segment on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Just popped a Severe T Warning to the East of Robert. Bow segment on our doorstep. This is going to be severe and its moving so rapidly. I'd bet the line has 60mph winds with it, and lots of hail just looking at it. I-77 between CLT and CAE are about to get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Not a drop here and have not had a good rain in 3 weeks. The ground here is bone dry. Have missed good rain by less than 10 miles at least 4 or 5 times since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.