June

[LithiaWx]

June to start off Hot! Can we get some summer thunderstorm love in the southeast this year?

As the mets have pointed out a Heat Wave will be on the way for the first part of June. Here are some images from the latest GFS run. It was the first to catch onto the idea, since then the other models have all caved to the GFS.

Looks like three or four days on the surface of the sun.......

[LithiaWx]

12Z Euro looks like it moves the heat ridge way west and it does not keep it long over the southeast. That would be amazing if it's true.

[FoothillsNC]

yeah, both models were sliding it back west, where it belongs LOL. You got to feel for Texas in this pattern of heat + drought, esp. south sections. The door might be open for nw flow MCC activity late next week. I'd prefer just a regular Bermuda high setup, since nw flow usually is only good for eastern and central sections of the Carolinas, not good at all in GA or much of Al or TN.

[shaggy]

yeah, both models were sliding it back west, where it belongs LOL. You got to feel for Texas in this pattern of heat + drought, esp. south sections. The door might be open for nw flow MCC activity late next week. I'd prefer just a regular Bermuda high setup, since nw flow usually is only good for eastern and central sections of the Carolinas, not good at all in GA or much of Al or TN.

The NW flow we had the other week was terrible for us. We saw nothing but that big beautiful MCS that dropped almost due south right over you guys. One of the best looking radars I have seen this year and I hope we see a repeat of that in the next few weeks because we are all gonna need some rain after this heat wave.

It was VERY humid last night so i'm hoping we get enough moisture to pop a few storms in the heat.

[NavarreDon]

Yikes!, GSP is forecasting 92 both Tues. & Wed. next week. Not how I want to start June in the Mountians.

[LithiaWx]

The 6Z GFS looked ugly for heat in Atlanta

6/1/11

98 degrees

595 heights

23c 850 temps

hot

[LithiaWx]

12Z GFS is going to be ugly for the southeast. I have not seen the temps yet but from the models it's going to be extended mid 90's + for a while.....

Edit : maybe not too bad, ridge pushes west again, also some rains in the cards for us.

[LithiaWx]

12Z Euro looks nasty, major ridge oscillating from the Southeast to Texas, eventually setting up in the heart of the country by day 10... Ugly hot weather, looks like one or two scorchers then just some hot weather for extended period of time. The heat is coming, how hot will it get? GFS is still spitting out high 90's for a day or two here, with low to mid 90's throughout the extended frames.

[phil882]

yeah, both models were sliding it back west, where it belongs LOL. You got to feel for Texas in this pattern of heat + drought, esp. south sections. The door might be open for nw flow MCC activity late next week. I'd prefer just a regular Bermuda high setup, since nw flow usually is only good for eastern and central sections of the Carolinas, not good at all in GA or much of Al or TN.

Yea I'm thinking later in the week we will have our chances for MCS activity. It actually shows up very well in the modeling in advanced, with a couple of very weak impulses at 500mb sliding by on the northern fringe of the upper level ridge. Its always difficult to time, but I have a hunch we might have some morning thunderstorm activity to deal with in the latter half of the week.

12Z Euro looks nasty, major ridge oscillating from the Southeast to Texas, eventually setting up in the heart of the country by day 10... Ugly hot weather, looks like one or two scorchers then just some hot weather for extended period of time. The heat is coming, how hot will it get? GFS is still spitting out high 90's for a day or two here, with low to mid 90's throughout the extended frames.

Monday and Tuesday are going to be very hot with maybe triple digit heat in spots, but as the high ****s out west into the Midwest, I think it won't be quite as bad. Still likely to see 90's across the low country with such high heights, but I think we will also have a better chance of afternoon storms later in the week so that might help as well.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Looks like the 00Z GFS from today is keeping more of a ridge over the southeast late next week. The trough it showed digging through the northeast next Thursday and Friday looks a good bit weaker than the 12Z run from yesterday. It now does not really dig this trough until it is out over the western Atlantic next weekend. By this time the ridge rebuilds and 594dm heights return centered over the Ohio Valley.

Here is a comparison of the GFS 12Z run from yesterday and the 00Z run from today.

Yesterdays 12Z run valid for next Friday at 06Z...

Todays 00Z run also valid for 06Z next Friday...

Todays 00Z run valid for Sunday, June 5th showing the ridge has rebuilt over the Ohio Valley.

If todays run of the GFS is correct then we should expect a run of 90+ degree temperatures that would likely run into next weekend and perhaps into the week after for Georgia and the Carolinas. If the ridge does indeed amplify next weekend, then mid and upper 90's will return. This would also greatly reduce our chances for t-storms Thursday and Friday as any MCS's would tend to track further to our north.

Also of note is that the GFS develops a tropical system over the northwestern Caribbean around 192 hrs and moves it into the central Gulf before going onshore around New Orleans. I would normally dismiss this, however the same run of the EURO also develops a system earlier over the central Caribbean and moves it north to near the southeastern coast of Cuba. Most likely nothing but something to watch for as hurricane season begins.

[eyewall]

I need to go to Maine

[november rain]

I need to go to hibernate in Greenland till September,I hate it when the SE goes into Sahara mode

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It's pretty sad when it's only May and you are already looking forward to September.

[FoothillsNC]

Like Phil pointed out, the heatwave is probably going to stay now for a week or longer. The GFS no longer moves the heat dome further west much, instead it keeps it centered over the Tenn. Valley, encompassing all the Southeast. About the only place with a chance of a cooling storm is the coast with seabreezes or the mtns with low level convergence there. Also, the GFS has a hint of a developing tropical system in the Caribbean within 10 days. Its almost June, so its possible, and the flow would steer it into the Gulf. One thing I still don't forecast is a year like the last couple with strong downslope flow. The ridge will likely slide back west, allowing nw flow to atleast generate MCC activity at times. If a block forms again, that will once again be good for the Southeast, with a Bermuda high steering in both Gulf humidity and the possible developments of tropical activity, but its all about timing and that would be the second week of June at the earliest.

[november rain]

What can I say Snowstorm, I hate the 3 H Days that summer brings and throw in the no rainfall. That adds up to a long boring 90 day waiting period for me till my kinda weather returns.

[Gastonwxman]

Going to feel like a long week for sure given the pesky ridge that will be hanging around. It now essentially appears the entire week will feature high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the Southeast, with heat index values around 100 or above. The only "good" chance of precipitation will be the mid-week period, but only an isolated chance appears to be the case at best for some folks. My next door neighbor's garden will be needing extra attention it seems. They have been growing nicely so far this year but with this heat and dryness, it won't take too long for them to die quickly. Hopefully this won't be a repeat of last summer but who knows? This year has been nothing but extremes of all sorts.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Going to feel like a long week for sure given the pesky ridge that will be hanging around. It now essentially appears the entire week will feature high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the Southeast, with heat index values around 100 or above. The only "good" chance of precipitation will be the mid-week period, but only an isolated chance appears to be the case at best for some folks. My next door neighbor's garden will be needing extra attention it seems. They have been growing nicely so far this year but with this heat and dryness, it won't take too long for them to die quickly. Hopefully this won't be a repeat of last summer but who knows? This year has been nothing but extremes of all sorts.

Well, my lawn is almost dead, the rain we had last week didn't do much good. I guess the only good thing about this hot, dry weather is that I won't have to use the lawn mower any time soon. This is just really weird weather. I don't recall ever having mid to upper 90s for an extended period the first week of June. This seems to be almost like an August type weather pattern.

[LithiaWx]

Well, my lawn is almost dead, the rain we had last week didn't do much good. I guess the only good thing about this hot, dry weather is that I won't have to use the lawn mower any time soon. This is just really weird weather. I don't recall ever having mid to upper 90s for an extended period the first week of June. This seems to be almost like an August type weather pattern.

We are much better off with the rain we had, image how bad it would be without it. I also remember many long stretches of mid 90's in late May-early June. It happens frequently, this is nothing new at all.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

We are much better off with the rain we had, image how bad it would be without it. I also remember many long stretches of mid 90's in late May-early June. It happens frequently, this is nothing new at all.

I'm just wondering how hot July and August will be if we are already starting out summer with temps in the mid 90s. The heat will just continue to build and build as the summer goes along. If we're dealing with mid 90s in Early June what are we looking at a couple months from now ? 105-110 ? I don't even remember last summer starting out this hot and we remember how hot last summer was. In fact, Atlanta didn't get above 97 all of last summer and Glenn Burns is forecasting 97 on Wednesday. The Weather Channel is forecasting 99 on Wed.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm just wondering how hot July and August will be if we are already starting out summer with temps in the mid 90s. The heat will just continue to build and build as the summer goes along. If we're dealing with mid 90s in Early June what are we looking at a couple months from now ? 105-110 ? I don't even remember last summer starting out this hot and we remember how hot last summer was. In fact, Atlanta didn't get above 97 all of last summer and Glenn Burns is forecasting 97 on Wednesday. The Weather Channel is forecasting 99 on Wed.

The heat in heatwaves is directly related to the upper height field, temperatures aloft and the position of closed high pressure systems. In other words, ridges in the jetstream. Most likely the ridge won't stay exactly right where it is, so once it moves somewhere else, or gets displaced however, the temps will come back down toward normal....our temps won't just "keep going up , up up" from here on out, just based on the fact that the climatological start of Summer is June 21, and the hottest month is July and early August. We can easily slip into a trough position in July or August which will make it much cooler than it currently is.

If the ridge does setup again in the same position though, in Later June and July, with the same upper factors, then yes, it would be a little hotter than now. To get 105 and 110 though, you'd need much hotter temps at 850 than we currently have though.

[jrips27]

The thing that made last summer so awful was how consistent the heat was. It seemed like every day was above 90^oF.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The thing that made last summer so awful was how consistent the heat was. It seemed like every day was above 90^oF.

Yeah there was no extreme heat last summer, but it was in the low to mid 90s almost every single day and the humiidty was higher than normal too. The mornings didn't cool off much either. I recall many mornings that were around 75. It was a really boring summer too, no hurricanes or tropical storms that ever impacted us.

[EmersonGA]

If I remember correctly summer 2009 started hot and then cooled off after mid June. Today was just too hot to do anything.

[november rain]

81 degrees at 9:30 pm indeed sucks

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If I remember correctly summer 2009 started hot and then cooled off after mid June. Today was just too hot to do anything.

I think you are right. I just hope and pray that this isn't a sign of things to come this summer. I just want a normal summer for a change ( highs in the upper 80s, lows in the 60s). The heat we're dealing with now and the next week would be hot even for the middle of summer.

[LithiaWx]

The GFS has been on a hot streak. Too bad it can't predict a major snowstorm like it can predict heatwaves 10 days out.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The GFS has been on a hot streak. Too bad it can't predict a major snowstorm like it can predict heatwaves 10 days out.

Yeah just our luck right ? I'd rather it predict a major snowstorm than a heat wave.

[jrips27]

June 1st.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Well, I was just reading Atlanta meteorologist Kirk Mellish's weather blog and I read about the best news I've heard in a long time. Maybe we end up having our hottest weather of the summer in the next week ? Here are his thoughts for this summer.

1. Noticeably cooler than last summer in much of the nation East of the MO River, including Georgia. But we will still have plenty of normal summer weather days here. But higher than normal odds of some "cool" days by summer standards.

2. NOT a long hot brutal summer but closer to normal for GA, biased slightly cool. However, summer gets off to a fast hot start in June then eases off down the stretch of the 90-day season.

3. Summer rainfall average in GA near-normal, biased slightly above-average North and below-average South. Drought will persist or worsen, especially east and south of the Perimeter.

4. For Atlanta: fewer 95 or above days than average, few if any 100 or above days.

5. RELATIVE TO THE 30-YEAR NORMAL, the month of June looks to be the warmest and driest of the 3 summer months (June-July-August) in Georgia compared to average. SUMMER off to a fast early start but fades deeper into the season.

6. Severe weather for the summer in the state will be near-normal to slightly below-average, while severe weather remains active away from GA but in areas further west and north than in the spring.

[dsaur]

The heat in heatwaves is directly related to the upper height field, temperatures aloft and the position of closed high pressure systems. In other words, ridges in the jetstream. Most likely the ridge won't stay exactly right where it is, so once it moves somewhere else, or gets displaced however, the temps will come back down toward normal....our temps won't just "keep going up , up up" from here on out, just based on the fact that the climatological start of Summer is June 21, and the hottest month is July and early August. We can easily slip into a trough position in July or August which will make it much cooler than it currently is.

If the ridge does setup again in the same position though, in Later June and July, with the same upper factors, then yes, it would be a little hotter than now. To get 105 and 110 though, you'd need much hotter temps at 850 than we currently have though.

Well, April started in Feb. And now July is starting in May. I figure we get Aug. late in June, and then in Aug., with some tropical help, I'm hoping we get Sept! At that rate, I'll see Jan. weather in Nov. and I'll be as happy as ants on pie, lol. But I need some rain. 1.3 for May is bad, and all this heat on top, is real bad. It's just bad T