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0z Model thread


tombo82685

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A clipper redeveloping into a Miller B is not so much to ask. Imagine a weak -NAO in the same situation we are now and tell me it wouldn't end up in a 6-12 inch storm from NYC to Boston. What I'm saying is that winter is not completely over just because we won't have any Miller As this year.

I know what you are getting at, I agree with you.

But as for the Miller A Gulf Bomb (like we saw last year, will be rare, and therefore getting a 2 foot snowstorm is not going to occur, unless the perfect ideal timing happens...

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I know what you are getting at, I agree with you.

But as for the Miller A Gulf Bomb (like we saw last year, will be rare, and therefore getting a 2 foot snowstorm is not going to occur, unless the perfect ideal timing happens...

I'll take my 6 inches and run with it. Hell, I'll take 2 inches and run with it. I wasn't even on this continent last year and didn't get to celebrate those awesome systems I enviously watched develop.

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I know what you are getting at, I agree with you.

But as for the Miller A Gulf Bomb (like we saw last year, will be rare, and therefore getting a 2 foot snowstorm is not going to occur, unless the perfect ideal timing happens...

Meh-- we've had Miller As in sig ninas before.... I think lol.  What was the Feb 89 storm that hit ACY with 20 inches or the Feb 06 storm that dropped 27 inches on NYC.

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Of course there are the very rare exceptions, the January Blizzard of '96 (in a Nina),  when you had a huge energy coming from the polar jet and fused a Miller A/B hybird. (But that's extremely rare here).

weak ninas can be amazing for snow (66-67, 95-96).... especially when they come after ninos.  Not so much with stronger ninas, but there are cases of it happening, like 03-04, 16-17, 55-56, 88-89, 05-06

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weak ninas can be amazing for snow (66-67, 95-96).... especially when they come after ninos. Not so much with stronger ninas, but there are cases of it happening, like 03-04, 16-17, 55-56, 88-89, 05-06

2003-2004 was a great one for the cold and snow.

55-56 basically was terrible except for March 18 1956.

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Yes, December 8-9 2005. Heck of a bomb for SNE. About 2 feet of snow fell in the Berkshires from that one.

No...the max snowfall was actually just NW of BOS near Ray (40/70 benchmark) with 15-16". Most of the Berks got around 10-12" with one very questionable 18" total IIRC, but none of us believed it at the time...and we never got confirmation.

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No...the max snowfall was actually just NW of BOS near Ray (40/70 bencmark) with 15-16". Most of the Berks got around 10-12" with one very questionable 18" total IIRC, but none of us believed it at the time...and we never got confirmation.

Actually, I got the wrong storm. Thanks Will.

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If all goes well, then December might actually end up below normal temperature wise. Still, because of today's temperatures in the 60s, it'll take the next the 3 or so days for the positive departures to level out to neutral, and then can we start seeing some negative departures, but if for any reason we get another 2-3 days of 60+ temperatures this December, our averages could still end up just normal or even slightly above.

We're not dealing with any big time arctic air mass that would create severe departures, just cold enough to bring things down below average.

Yet, who knows how this month will go, one or two more lake cutters, and say hello to another above average month regarding temperatures.

This will not be our year, most Mets know that, JB knows that, and it's just something we'll have to put up with. La Ninas are incredibly frustrating for snow lovers, but it might now be all bad. We need a strong La Nina to help cool things down in Canada and globally so that the next season will be a lot better.

Above average month?:arrowhead: This month isn't going to be above average.

do you guys want a euro thread, or is it pretty much dead?

Yes. We need a thread for the mid December threat.:scooter:

Perhaps the crappiest winter with a respectable snow total...

I had 11 inches of snow in December, 0 in January, 18 in February, 2 in March and 0.2 in April.

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I recall that 2005-2006 wasn't that great except for that freak February event...

We were talking about the possibility of Miller A's in la ninas.... Feb 89 and Feb 06 are good examples of those occurring in less than favorable patterns.

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Perhaps the crappiest winter with a respectable snow total...

Well, Long Island got half the snowfall from the Feb 06 storm that NYC got and we got nothing in the Dec 05 storm that dumped 6+ in the city and west of there.  It was payback for 04-05.  Unfortunately, I ended up being on the wrong end both times-- I had 36 inches snowfall in 04-05 and 26 inches in 05-06.

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Above average month?:arrowhead:  This month isn't going to be above average.

Yes. We need a thread for the mid December threat.:scooter:

I had 11 inches of snow in December, 0 in January, 18 in February, 2 in March and 0.2 in April.

That April 4, 2006 storm dropped an inch of snow at JFK in like 30 min in the middle of the day and the snowfall rate was higher here than it was in Feb 06, or at any other point that winter.  Yehuda has an awesome video of that storm somewhere.  We our due for our next April event ;)

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That April 4, 2006 storm dropped an inch of snow at JFK in like 30 min in the middle of the day and the snowfall rate was higher here than it was in Feb 06, or at any other point that winter. Yehuda has an awesome video of that storm somewhere. We our due for our next April event ;)

We are due for another April 1982. :snowman:

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At least it will feel like winter next week with the cold and snow flakesin the air, I think we have a good chance of seeing scattered snowshowers and flurries throughout the week. This will be from the retrogading low and from streamers off the Lakes.

Yeah there'll be an extended period of below normal temperatures and occasionally flurries from the cold ULL stationed over us. The coldest temperatures look to come around December 8th and 9th when 850mb temperatures drop well below -10C on the GFS. It should warm up a bit by mid-month but more threats appear to be looming on the models.

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That April 4, 2006 storm dropped an inch of snow at JFK in like 30 min in the middle of the day and the snowfall rate was higher here than it was in Feb 06, or at any other point that winter. Yehuda has an awesome video of that storm somewhere. We our due for our next April event ;)

I was in school when we had that snow event on April 4th. All the students couldn't believe it was snowing in April.:lol:

We are due for another April 1982. :snowman:

Was that a Kocin storm?:P

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I was in school when we had that snow event on April 4th. All the students couldn't believe it was snowing in April.:lol:

Was that a Kocin storm?:P

Of course it was, Anthony.

1 foot snow at Newark on April 5, 1982...

1 to 2 feet of snow fell in New England.

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