isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unfortunately the NAO could completely switch which would eradicate the vortex and kill off the block, plus with a -PNA, all we'll have to look forward to is a lake cutter. If Richmond or parts of N.C. get accumulating snows out of this, I'll be completely shocked. You don't see that happen too often in a strong La Nina with a clipper. The pattern doesn't look to favorable for snows north of D.C. right now, I'd rather have it look more like last December where we saw storms amplify and get further north, so at least those in and around Philly and NYC got involved. Elaborating what you said, I think that this winter will be of extremes. Neutral NAOs like what we're headed into will be few and far between. We'll either be largely positive or largely negative. I fear that allowing the NAO to break up would just invite lake cutter after lake cutter. After all, the PNA is not going to be + on many occasions with a La Nina. Our best bet is some sort of overrunning feature but even to get that, the 50/50 low needs to be further north. We need the NAO to be around -1 for that to happen. Right now, the blocking is so strong such that the 50/50 low is suppressed to the northeast. The synoptics are actually perfect for snow in the southern MA but it's just incredibly rare to see during La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A bit off topic, what has anyone seen Chuck (Stormchaser Chuck around)? He had some great stuff at Eastern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unfortunately the NAO could completely switch which would eradicate the vortex and kill off the block, plus with a -PNA, all we'll have to look forward to is a lake cutter. If Richmond or parts of N.C. get accumulating snows out of this, I'll be completely shocked. You don't see that happen too often in a strong La Nina with a clipper. The pattern doesn't look to favorable for snows north of D.C. right now, I'd rather have it look more like last December where we saw storms amplify and get further north, so at least those in and around Philly and NYC got involved. NYC will be fine. Our time will come. Our storms usually happen when the NAO switches to positive from negative.Also, I wouldn't be shocked to see January or February come in with more snow than December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 precip shield looks very similar at hour 60 as the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 at 66 hours, it actually even looks a bit further south than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NYC will be fine. Our time will come. Our storms usually happen when the NAO switches to positive from negative.Also, I wouldn't be shocked to see January or February come in with more snow than December. That is called Climo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That is called Climo.... Not typically in La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 all the measurable precip is south of DC through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That is called Climo.... Of course I know that but a lot of people are saying that January is going to be warm and dry.Possibly February too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 at 500 mb, the energy is considerably weaker diving down into the ohio valley, its going to be South of its previous run and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Upper midwest actually does really well with this clipper. I imagine ratios are pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When the year is over KNYC will have received more snow (possibly considerably more) than KDCA... I disagree, Personally I think neither see much...I think December will feature too strong of blocking then we go into the positive NAO phase....All indications point to a January thaw..February and March is where we are going to have to get it done and Im not so confident in an LA Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Upper midwest actually does really well with this clipper. I imagine ratios are pretty decent. I imagine some places in Minnesota and Iowa seeing upwards of 10 inches. One of the more robust precip. fields from a clipper in the midwest I've seen in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I disagree, Personally I think neither see much...I think December will feature too strong of blocking then we go into the positive NAO phase....All indications point to a January thaw..February and March is where we are going to have to get it done and Im not so confident in an LA Nina winter. How much do you thnk NYC ends up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 down east maine really gets pounded with the retrograding of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 down east maine really gets pounded with the retrograding of the storm The surface temps say thats alot of rain.....or unless im reading wrong/ http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Lake effect bands are going wild at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The surface temps say thats alot of rain.....or unless im reading wrong/ http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_072m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_078m.gif yea, it's possible.. I wasn't paying too close attention to temps..just precip amounts.. the storm kinda just retrogrades and sits over northern new england for a while. The 108 - 111 hour, the low really cranks up and dumps on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The surface temps say thats alot of rain.....or unless im reading wrong/ I'm pretty sure he's referring to the second retrograde (our system)..might still be warm, haven't checked the surface temps http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Lake effect bands are going wild at 90 hours. Some areas are going to get hammered by this .I wish I lived near the Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How much do you thnk NYC ends up with? Id go with slightly below average....Im from Baltimore so im not totally familar with NYC's climatology..But I suppose you average around 25-30 inches....Ill go with 20-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 yea, it's possible.. I wasn't paying too close attention to temps..just precip amounts.. the storm kinda just retrogrades and sits over northern new england for a while. Yeah the 2nd storm that backs in seems to be more snow for them.......Should see alot of snow showers in the area if this surface depiction is true off the 00z gfs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_120m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Buffalo is going to get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm pretty sure he's referring to the second retrograde (our system)..might still be warm, haven't checked the surface temps http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f108.gif Yeah i forgot his model site comes out faster.........verbatim it looks to be rain at start for them....my aplogies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah i forgot his model site comes out faster.........verbatim it looks to be rain at start for them....my aplogies they have severe bl issues, atleast from 925 down its abv freezing, from about hr 111 on they have bl issues actually through out the whole run down east and northern maine have bl issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah i forgot his model site comes out faster.........verbatim it looks to be rain at start for them....my aplogies no problem boy, it's gonna be cold for a while... and pretty breezy too, I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the disturbance after that is digging way down into Florida it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Not much of a cold push either, just slightly below average temps with dry conditions, maybe LGA will get down to freezing finally. The vortex is screwing us with the cold and the snows, unless you live in western Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 no problem boy, it's gonna be cold for a while... and pretty breezy too, I guess.. I posted above i think we see some snow shower activtey from monday-tuesday, gfs has about .01-.10 for the area...atleast its somthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Not much of a cold push either, just slightly below average temps with dry conditions, maybe LGA will get down to freezing finally. The vortex is screwing us with the cold and the snows, unless you live in western Maine. dude...516-522dm heights will produce more than "slightly below avg" temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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