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0z Model thread


tombo82685

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riddle me this one, when was the last time we had a decent clipper around these parts?

Last good one for nyc metro was january 2004......had the high snow ratios.....Thats was prob the best clipper i have seen to effect this area. I think its to early to say last year is repeating itself(nyc 50+ of snow, which i would take a repeat of) but i do believe we will be cold and dry for the next week or so. The blocking is to strong, perhaps when it starts to weaken we get somthing. This is not the best pattern for phl-nyc. DCA is far enough south to benfit from clippers, and sne being far enough east to benfit from costals backing in.

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Last good one for nyc metro was january 2004......had the high snow ratios.....Thats was prob the best clipper i have seen to effect this area. I think its to early to say last year is repeating itself(nyc 50+ of snow, which i would take a repeat of) but i do believe we will be cold and dry for the next week or so. The blocking is to strong, perhaps when it starts to weaken we get somthing. This is not the best pattern for phl-nyc. DCA is far enough south to benfit from clippers, and sne being far enough east to benfit from costals backing in.

Yeah, it was just 10 degrees when it snowed..... that's is pure fluff.

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I think I remember this one. Was it a weekday afternoon/evening? I remember ~2" and temps around 10°, by the time I shoveled it was solid ice because it was so cold

Yes it was a weekday...

Yeah, I believe I had a low temp of around 2 degrees.

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I think I remember this one. Was it a weekday afternoon/evening? I remember ~2" and temps around 10°, by the time I shoveled it was solid ice because it was so cold

It was mostly overnight with temps starting in the mid teens the evening before and ending up in the single digits area wide by the following morning. The snow falling that night and morning was the fluffiest snow I had ever seen in my life. 7 inches of pure cotton. Definitely no ice. The ground underneath was bone dry and I could literally blow snow away with a strong breath.

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This.....never have i seen it snow at those temp in this area....and to get that snow from a clipper and fight the dry area was impressive......

Kttn was 9 degrees and snowing for a time

kdyl was 8 degrees and snowing for a time

kewr was 8 degrees and snowing for a time

klga was 9 degrees and snowing for a time

kteb was 7 degrees and snowing for a time

Snow started in LGA with a temp of 14

It was mostly overnight with temps starting in the mid teens the evening before and ending up in the single digits area wide by the following morning. The snow falling that night and morning was the fluffiest snow I had ever seen in my life. 7 inches of pure cotton. Definitely no ice. The ground underneath was bone dry and I could literally blow snow away with a strong breath.

I talk about that storm in your old thread about 09-10 winter....those are obs from that clipper in 04.....

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DC is going to see accumulating snow before NYC in a La Nina pattern. La Nina FTL. 0_o

They did in 2007 too. NYC is not in a great spot in this current pattern for the next 5 or 6 days...DC is far enough south to possibly get the clipper and then eastern New England has the next best chance if it retrogrades after going out to sea initially. You need to wait for the block to relax a bit to see some threats.

This pattern so fooked up that nothing is set in stone, but that is probably the most likely set of circumstances as they stand at the moment. Certainly possible all of us are left high and dry for a bit too.

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They did in 2007 too. NYC is not in a great spot in this current pattern for the next 5 or 6 days...DC is far enough south to possibly get the clipper and then eastern New England has the next best chance if it retrogrades after going out to sea initially. You need to wait for the block to relax a bit to see some threats.

This pattern so fooked up that nothing is set in stone, but that is probably the most likely set of circumstances as they stand at the moment. Certainly possible all of us are left high and dry for a bit too.

x2.....just posted pretty much the same.....Best chance for phl-nyc is when the block starts to weaken or breakdown.......cold and dry the rule here for now

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They did in 2007 too. NYC is not in a great spot in this current pattern for the next 5 or 6 days...DC is far enough south to possibly get the clipper and then eastern New England has the next best chance if it retrogrades after going out to sea initially. You need to wait for the block to relax a bit to see some threats.

This pattern so fooked up that nothing is set in stone, but that is probably the most likely set of circumstances as they stand at the moment. Certainly possible all of us are left high and dry for a bit too.

Hopefully storms will not cut west of us when the block relaxes. That's my biggest fear .

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What's killing us for those (me of course included) who want to see a large storm is the subtropical jet is just not there in a Nina pattern, which everyone knows that.

Perhaps a strong polar jet will do its job later on, once we get the PNA ridge established (its quite tough to get it with you have a strong negative PNA and a downstream trough, rather ridge over the central United States).

But do not despair,

our luck will happen once the strong negative -AO, and -NAO relax a bit, then get a strong vortmax to pump the energy (strong UL divergence aloft) then get it to dig S enough for everyone to get into it...

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Unfortunately the NAO could completely switch which would eradicate the vortex and kill off the block, plus with a -PNA, all we'll have to look forward to is a lake cutter. If Richmond or parts of N.C. get accumulating snows out of this, I'll be completely shocked. You don't see that happen too often in a strong La Nina with a clipper.

The pattern doesn't look to favorable for snows north of D.C. right now, I'd rather have it look more like last December where we saw storms amplify and get further north, so at least those in and around Philly and NYC got involved.

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