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0z Model thread


tombo82685

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:26 AM, tombo82685 said:

yea through 48, deff not as much amplification

Wes did say in our subforum that we still have 30 hours (more like 24 now) until the S/W is over better sampling region but the trend towards less amplification is a little concerning for snow lovers.

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:31 AM, atownwxwatcher said:

NAM usually plays catch up to the other models & its solutions are usually behind the other models. Not really sure why they even run the model any more....It needs a serious upgrade to get out of the outlier camp it normally is in...

The NAM is a mesoscale model used for short range forecasting, it wasn't meant to be taken verbatim at 84 hours. It is useful for its purpose.

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:38 AM, Sundog said:

The NAM is a mesoscale model used for short range forecasting, it wasn't meant to be taken verbatim at 84 hours. It is useful for its purpose.

I am well aware that the NAM is a mesoscale model but it still does not do away with the fact that it is almost always considered the outlier whether in Short Range or Longer ranges...

For example in reference to this particular system it was once again considered an outlier (along with the UKMET)

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...MOST

NON-UKMET MODELS HANDLE THE INITIAL LOW COMPARABLY. HOWEVER...THE

12Z NAM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF

THE MAIN LOW...WHICH ENDS UP BECOMING THE MAIN LOW BY SATURDAY

MORNING. THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE

EASTERN U.S...AND IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE

12Z GFS COMPARES BETTER WITH OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND IS FLATTER

WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT

QUITE AS DEEP AS THE 00Z RUN WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE

EASTER U.S. NOT CONVINCED QUITE YET THAT THIS IS A TREND WORTH

FOLLOWING...AS ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW.

HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION STILL LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE

NAM...SO WILL RECOMMEND A 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND.

I been following this model for years and it seems like it does best with over running type of events ..but falls behind majority of the time. SREFS i find much more valuable..

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:46 AM, Sundog said:

When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity.

This is how the NAM is during tropical season. It is such an erratic model and people were putting stock into a 84hr solution.

Going to wait for the 0z GFS.

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:46 AM, Sundog said:

When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity.

Were picking up right were we left of last year.....madness

Remember when we could get a nice and easy 4-8" event? Now everything is a battle between some crazy telleconnections or insanely strong sw's, weve got to bleed our eyes out to get anything weight_lift.gif

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  On 12/2/2010 at 2:47 AM, Alpha5 said:

Were picking up right were we left of last year.....madness

Remember when we could get a nice and easy 4-8" event? Now everything is a battle between some crazy telleconnections or insanely strong sw's, weve got to bleed our eyes out to get anything weight_lift.gif

riddle me this one, when was the last time we had a decent clipper around these parts?

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