tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Lets see if we can continue the trends from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Lets see if we can continue the trends from 18z Its over, this is not Philly/NYC's storm, not with the NAO being what it is and the trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Its over, this is not Philly/NYC's storm, not with the NAO being what it is and the trough orientation. i still think philly has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 i still think philly has a shot Fair enough, anyone north of there is done IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Fair enough, anyone north of there is done IMO granted it might be a long shot, but it doesnt need that much of a shift north to get into philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 through 30, nothing looks vastly different, it may be a hair slower than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 through 36, not much different, energy maybe a little stornger coming out of the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 looks a little slower to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 through 30, nothing looks vastly different, it may be a hair slower than 18z if confluence is moving out wouldn't slower be better? (ie more time for confluence to move far enough north to allow for ample amplification) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 42 may have a little less amplification, doesnt look like its digging as much so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 if confluence is moving out wouldn't slower be better? (ie more time for confluence to move far enough north to allow for ample amplification) im not sure the confluence is moving out, i think the later in time the worse it gets, but thats my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think slower is better, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 42 may have a little less amplification, doesnt look like its digging as much so far I see that too (posted over in the Mid-Atl subforum) But I guess we still have time in the run for it to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 yea through 48, deff not as much amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wow, definitely not as amplified as 18z...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 also slower and weaker and a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 yea through 48, deff not as much amplification Wes did say in our subforum that we still have 30 hours (more like 24 now) until the S/W is over better sampling region but the trend towards less amplification is a little concerning for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 terrible even compared to the 12z. this is a surrender to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM usually plays catch up to the other models & its solutions are usually behind the other models. Not really sure why they even run the model any more....It needs a serious upgrade to get out of the outlier camp it normally is in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Some nice ratios in south central Minnesota... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM usually plays catch up to the other models & its solutions are usually behind the other models. Not really sure why they even run the model any more....It needs a serious upgrade to get out of the outlier camp it normally is in... The NAM is a mesoscale model used for short range forecasting, it wasn't meant to be taken verbatim at 84 hours. It is useful for its purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 is it worth even doing the euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 this threat is pretty much toast north of DC. Maybe the Polar vortex will over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity. when you have a vortex like we do over the northeast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The NAM is a mesoscale model used for short range forecasting, it wasn't meant to be taken verbatim at 84 hours. It is useful for its purpose. I am well aware that the NAM is a mesoscale model but it still does not do away with the fact that it is almost always considered the outlier whether in Short Range or Longer ranges... For example in reference to this particular system it was once again considered an outlier (along with the UKMET) AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...MOST NON-UKMET MODELS HANDLE THE INITIAL LOW COMPARABLY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH ENDS UP BECOMING THE MAIN LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...AND IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS COMPARES BETTER WITH OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND IS FLATTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THE 00Z RUN WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTER U.S. NOT CONVINCED QUITE YET THAT THIS IS A TREND WORTH FOLLOWING...AS ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION STILL LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE NAM...SO WILL RECOMMEND A 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND. I been following this model for years and it seems like it does best with over running type of events ..but falls behind majority of the time. SREFS i find much more valuable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity. This is how the NAM is during tropical season. It is such an erratic model and people were putting stock into a 84hr solution. Going to wait for the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity. YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time you saw the precip shield dive almost due south from a clipper? Lol this is insanity. Were picking up right were we left of last year.....madness Remember when we could get a nice and easy 4-8" event? Now everything is a battle between some crazy telleconnections or insanely strong sw's, weve got to bleed our eyes out to get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Were picking up right were we left of last year.....madness Remember when we could get a nice and easy 4-8" event? Now everything is a battle between some crazy telleconnections or insanely strong sw's, weve got to bleed our eyes out to get anything riddle me this one, when was the last time we had a decent clipper around these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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