CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Yeah I'd say NW of DXR-BDL-ORE could have some fun But check out the SREFs too. Probs are low except for western areas, but looks at some of those probabilities on lapse rates. Check out the origin. It takes the EML over the southeast currently,and brings it north. That's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 But check out the SREFs too. Probs are low except for western areas, but looks at some of those probabilities on lapse rates. Check out the origin. It takes the EML over the southeast currently,and brings it north. That's pretty cool. Yeah it is. I think areas like GFL and west of ALB could rock tomorrow. It will be interesting if any of that convection can survive into the Berkshires or Litchfield Hills. May be a lone supercell that is able to bust the cap this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Screw that..we have all summer for muggy weather. I'll enjoy the 70s right now. I lose the seabreeze in the summer when it becomes more feeble. I don't know. BOS dropped into the chilly 60's yesterday afternoon. i don't want that when we're eating dinner on the deck or out playing in the yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Blue skies and blazing sun has kicked in Windsor about 5 miles south of BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't know. BOS dropped into the chilly 60's yesterday afternoon. i don't want that when we're eating dinner on the deck or out playing in the yard Yeah right at the beach maybe, but it was 72 at my place. That's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 NAM backdoor FTL it's really weak Kevin... You're not in danger out that way on this 12z guidance... It's got 04 degrees at all of 2kts at BOS with 13C in the T1... My bet is that I495 might get kissed by a breeze rotation that would hardly touch their temps, while perhaps downtown Boston gets a nice natural AC for awhile. That's about it... FIT to BDL axis will be 87 in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't know. BOS dropped into the chilly 60's yesterday afternoon. i don't want that when we're eating dinner on the deck or out playing in the yard BOS did, Not cambridge where it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Poor Joe down near BDR is socked in with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Poor Joe down near BDR is socked in with fog. High dews coming in over cold LIS waters = :sun: :sun: cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Poor Joe down near BDR is socked in with fog. We're pretty socked in with the marine garbage too. Fog/Haze 71.3/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We're pretty socked in with the marine garbage too. Fog/Haze 71.3/66 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php ...it's images like those that i wish i had a 10 mile diameter fan on high - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Man the NAM is really unstable tomorrow. We might be pretty well capped, but perhaps we can pop a few cells in nrn mass?? There's always hoping. Nice sun out there. 69.1/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't know. BOS dropped into the chilly 60's yesterday afternoon. i don't want that when we're eating dinner on the deck or out playing in the yard Since when are the 60s chilly? A perfect summer evening would be in the 60s... stoking the campfire out back with a billion stars overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Man the NAM is really unstable tomorrow. We might be pretty well capped, but perhaps we can pop a few cells in nrn mass?? I'm amazed to see the regional "REGIONAL" LI's down to -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Since when are the 60s chilly? A perfect summer evening would be in the 60s... smoking pot like a campfire out back with a billion stars overhead. Sounds fun - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sounds fun - Haha, well played sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I'm amazed to see the regional "REGIONAL" LI's down to -6 BOS -9C on LI!!! That's nuts. But answer me this...look at the trajectory of this mid level airmass. How often do we have an EML like airmass come up from the southeast? The trajectory is unheard of. I'd love to pick Mike's brain on this. Unfortunately storm trajectories are from ssw-nne and no good PVA in eastern areas...no trigger either. However, maybe we can try to fire something on any meso boundary like a seabreeze. Overall, tremendous waste of an airmass over eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Interesting, Upstate NY just got ripped by a fast moving albeit small bow-echo deal with hail and 60kt winds at the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 BOS -9C on LI!!! That's nuts. But answer me this...look at the trajectory of this mid level airmass. How often do we have an EML like airmass come up from the southeast? The trajectory is unheard of. I'd love to pick Mike's brain on this. Unfortunately storm trajectories are from ssw-nne and no good PVA in eastern areas...no trigger either. However, maybe we can try to fire something on any meso boundary like a seabreeze. Overall, tremendous waste of an airmass over eastern areas. We are in the right entrance region of that jet streak over Quebec...maybe we can get lucky with a seabreeze boundary...idk Looks like a pulse severe type day with a lot of instability but only 25-30 kt of deep layer shear and very weak low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice, yesterday's cool fropa has already gone back into warm sector... Nearing 80/63 at many locales after DPs in the low 50s at dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 979< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261555Z - 261730Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF PA AND NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IT APPEARS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SOON CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND WITH TIME A MATURING CU FIELD THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE NOTED GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 BOS -9C on LI!!! That's nuts. But answer me this...look at the trajectory of this mid level airmass. How often do we have an EML like airmass come up from the southeast? The trajectory is unheard of. I'd love to pick Mike's brain on this. Unfortunately storm trajectories are from ssw-nne and no good PVA in eastern areas...no trigger either. However, maybe we can try to fire something on any meso boundary like a seabreeze. Overall, tremendous waste of an airmass over eastern areas. I noticed that too, but didn't bring it up in that other thread of mine to lesson confusion - that EML layer actually originated from the SW/Sonara and the Plateau regions. It was actually the first eject, but it was shunted more E. It's been hybridized with Gulf air and is not getting pulled up the Coast. Very good find on your part - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice, yesterday's cool fropa has already gone back into warm sector... Nearing 80/63 at many locales after DPs in the low 50s at dawn. yup, 75.4 / 64 about ~8 mi ESE of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We are in the right entrance region of that jet streak over Quebec...maybe we can get lucky with a seabreeze boundary...idk Looks like a pulse severe type day with a lot of instability but only 25-30 kt of deep layer shear and very weak low-level shear. SRH may get a boost around ORH too, if their is a breaze boundary terminous there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 BTV is mentioning possible tornadoes in their Special Weather Statement... very rare for them to actually come out and say it. From you mets in this thread, if you don't mind a NNE question... what time do you think are we looking at the best shot for SVR up here? I'm hoping to do a trail run to the top of Mansfield and back in about an hour. Round-trip time is around 2 hours, so hopefully off the mountain by 3pm. Think I'm safe? I've been at 4,000ft in a thunderstorm and its not fun. When your hair starts to stand on end, its time to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 SRH may get a boost around ORH too, if their is a breaze boundary terminous there Perhaps...BUF has had two tornadoes initiated from localized shear along the lake breeze boundary. 1987 and 2006 in Cheektowaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 72 glorious degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 We are in the right entrance region of that jet streak over Quebec...maybe we can get lucky with a seabreeze boundary...idk Looks like a pulse severe type day with a lot of instability but only 25-30 kt of deep layer shear and very weak low-level shear. Yeah western areas could do pretty well. 30kts of shear isn't too bad..especially if we can utilize that CAPE. I guess best bet would be to try to generate some sort of cold pool to help generate a line of storms out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Jesus H. That cell with a max of 72dbz is showing 100% chance of severe hail with hail size of 3.00 inches. Someone's getting car-crushed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I noticed that too, but didn't bring it up in that other thread of mine to lesson confusion - that EML layer actually originated from the SW/Sonara and the Plateau regions. It was actually the first eject, but it was shunted more E. It's been hybridized with Gulf air and is not getting pulled up the Coast. Very good find on your part - Yeah it's leftover from the last few days of severe, but yet not tainted from convection. That's really strange to have an airmass not tainted by convection over the southeast, and then have it advect over SNE. Of course, it might be all for nothing, but maybe an isolated cell or two can pop along any seabreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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