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SNE Countdown to Summer. 5/25-5/31 Obs Disco Inferno


HoarfrostHubb

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I love everyone embracing the torch. We've got just about all posters now enhjoying the heat and humidity that is coming. Only Mrg and GAY are left. We'll get them too

Fortunately I have to deal with very little heat most years. This one will be no exception. A few warm days at th is time of year is to be expected.I'll never embrace the heat. I simply despise it.

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It may have the right idea, just not sure how far south it gets. Backdoor doesn't have to mean low clouds and fog either.

Looks to me like that feature would be held up E of a ASH-PVD line...perhaps limited to 495 --> seaward. That's per this run though... It's May - we're lucky there isn't one blasting SW toward PHL like the p-wave off a nuclear bomb blast :axe:

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Looks to me like that feature would be held up E of a ASH-PVD line...perhaps limited to 495 --> seaward. That's per this run though... It's May - we're lucky there isn't one blasting SW toward PHL like the p-wave off a nuclear bomb blast :axe:

Yeah I know..lol. I don't even know if it will happen..just saying what it shows.

The euro brings big heat on Monday and Tuesday BTW.

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You would be very impressed at the evolution of this. Classic heat plume going over the top and frying Montreal before sagging into SNE with +20C temps at 850.

Yep, finally just saw it!

I would also add that the W-Fri panels look dubiously too fast to break down the ridge. If you look at the Tuesday frame and compare it to the Wed, classic dampening without having any synoptic reason for it - not sure why these global models do that ..intersting.

Anyway, we should also look for that 20+C air mass to be muted some and perhaps 21 or 22C given the Sonoran origin - if this is mainly correct. Not trying to over sell this - really - but I almost reminds me of last year's May 28th 98F high at FIT and ASH.

That was an awesome day!!! I had a meso go right over Ayer Mass at 10:30 at night, and it had strobe lightning as it moved away toward the S... Most spectucular nocturnal vista I had ever seen, with a strobing CB (CA, and CG, and CC), with a the full moon coming out over the top of the anvil as it receded S.... Just almost no words for that.

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Yep, finally just saw it!

I would also add that the W-Fri panels look dubiously too fast to break down the ridge. If you look at the Tuesday frame and compare it to the Wed, classic dampening without having any synoptic reason for it - not sure why these global models do that ..intersting.

Anyway, we should also look for that 20+C air mass to be muted some and perhaps 21 or 22C given the Sonoran origin - if this is mainly correct. Not trying to over sell this - really - but I almost reminds me of last year's May 28th 98F high at FIT and ASH.

That was an awesome day!!! I had a meso go right over Ayer Mass at 10:30 at night, and it had strobe lightning as it moved away toward the S... Most spectucular nocturnal vista I had ever seen, with a strobing CB (CA, and CG, and CC), with a the full moon coming out over the top of the anvil as it receded S.... Just almost no words for that.

Were you pretending you were at a RAVE during the storm and dancing around in Mom's basement naked?

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Yep, finally just saw it!

I would also add that the W-Fri panels look dubiously too fast to break down the ridge. If you look at the Tuesday frame and compare it to the Wed, classic dampening without having any synoptic reason for it - not sure why these global models do that ..intersting.

Anyway, we should also look for that 20+C air mass to be muted some and perhaps 21 or 22C given the Sonoran origin - if this is mainly correct. Not trying to over sell this - really - but I almost reminds me of last year's May 28th 98F high at FIT and ASH.

That was an awesome day!!! I had a meso go right over Ayer Mass at 10:30 at night, and it had strobe lightning as it moved away toward the S... Most spectucular nocturnal vista I had ever seen, with a strobing CB (CA, and CG, and CC), with a the full moon coming out over the top of the anvil as it receded S.... Just almost no words for that.

I think that was the big western mass severe. If it was, that had some vestiges of an EML.

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Were you pretending you were at a RAVE during the storm and dancing around in Mom's basement naked?

No, but you're welcome to dream...

Btw:

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: FIT LAT= 42.55 LON= -71.75 ELE= 348

12Z MAY25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

WED 12Z 25-MAY 17.4 9.9 1013 78 35 0.00 572 561

WED 18Z 25-MAY 23.0 10.2 1014 49 26 0.01 575 563

THU 00Z 26-MAY 18.7 11.3 1014 81 21 0.00 577 565

THU 06Z 26-MAY 13.3 11.6 1015 95 32 0.00 578 565

THU 12Z 26-MAY 17.5 13.3 1016 79 53 0.00 579 566

THU 18Z 26-MAY 25.5 15.9 1013 62 54 0.00 581 570

FRI 00Z 27-MAY 20.4 17.7 1013 88 40 0.00 581 571

FRI 06Z 27-MAY 18.1 17.9 1014 96 38 0.01 581 569

FRI 12Z 27-MAY 19.9 17.6 1015 86 34 0.00 581 569

FRI 18Z 27-MAY 27.7 16.9 1014 60 32 0.01 582 570

SAT 00Z 28-MAY 20.2 17.1 1016 92 27 0.04 582 568

SAT 06Z 28-MAY 16.4 17.7 1017 98 30 0.00 582 567

SAT 12Z 28-MAY 18.2 16.8 1019 86 44 0.00 582 566

SAT 18Z 28-MAY 25.8 15.2 1019 62 46 0.00 583 567

SUN 00Z 29-MAY 20.8 16.3 1020 87 40 0.00 585 568

SUN 06Z 29-MAY 17.3 15.1 1022 97 51 0.00 585 566

SUN 12Z 29-MAY 19.5 14.3 1024 83 32 0.00 587 567

SUN 18Z 29-MAY 25.6 13.4 1023 60 36 0.01 588 569

MON 00Z 30-MAY 21.0 15.5 1022 84 19 0.00 590 571

MON 06Z 30-MAY 17.1 15.7 1023 96 18 0.00 590 571

MON 12Z 30-MAY 19.5 16.2 1024 85 25 0.00 592 571

MON 18Z 30-MAY 28.7 17.8 1021 56 26 0.00 593 575

TUE 00Z 31-MAY 23.2 19.9 1021 83 23 0.00 594 577

TUE 06Z 31-MAY 19.0 20.2 1021 91 21 0.00 594 576

TUE 12Z 31-MAY 23.1 20.0 1021 79 21 0.00 594 576

TUE 18Z 31-MAY 31.8 19.8 1019 51 24 0.00 594 577

WED 00Z 01-JUN 25.9 20.5 1018 83 21 0.00 593 578

WED 06Z 01-JUN 21.4 20.5 1017 88 23 0.00 591 577

WED 12Z 01-JUN 25.1 18.6 1017 76 21 0.00 589 575 ....Having a D6 MOS product be 32C is pretty much not seen. Hmm.

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No, but you're welcome to dream...

Btw:

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: FIT LAT= 42.55 LON= -71.75 ELE= 348

12Z MAY25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

WED 12Z 25-MAY 17.4 9.9 1013 78 35 0.00 572 561

WED 18Z 25-MAY 23.0 10.2 1014 49 26 0.01 575 563

THU 00Z 26-MAY 18.7 11.3 1014 81 21 0.00 577 565

THU 06Z 26-MAY 13.3 11.6 1015 95 32 0.00 578 565

THU 12Z 26-MAY 17.5 13.3 1016 79 53 0.00 579 566

THU 18Z 26-MAY 25.5 15.9 1013 62 54 0.00 581 570

FRI 00Z 27-MAY 20.4 17.7 1013 88 40 0.00 581 571

FRI 06Z 27-MAY 18.1 17.9 1014 96 38 0.01 581 569

FRI 12Z 27-MAY 19.9 17.6 1015 86 34 0.00 581 569

FRI 18Z 27-MAY 27.7 16.9 1014 60 32 0.01 582 570

SAT 00Z 28-MAY 20.2 17.1 1016 92 27 0.04 582 568

SAT 06Z 28-MAY 16.4 17.7 1017 98 30 0.00 582 567

SAT 12Z 28-MAY 18.2 16.8 1019 86 44 0.00 582 566

SAT 18Z 28-MAY 25.8 15.2 1019 62 46 0.00 583 567

SUN 00Z 29-MAY 20.8 16.3 1020 87 40 0.00 585 568

SUN 06Z 29-MAY 17.3 15.1 1022 97 51 0.00 585 566

SUN 12Z 29-MAY 19.5 14.3 1024 83 32 0.00 587 567

SUN 18Z 29-MAY 25.6 13.4 1023 60 36 0.01 588 569

MON 00Z 30-MAY 21.0 15.5 1022 84 19 0.00 590 571

MON 06Z 30-MAY 17.1 15.7 1023 96 18 0.00 590 571

MON 12Z 30-MAY 19.5 16.2 1024 85 25 0.00 592 571

MON 18Z 30-MAY 28.7 17.8 1021 56 26 0.00 593 575

TUE 00Z 31-MAY 23.2 19.9 1021 83 23 0.00 594 577

TUE 06Z 31-MAY 19.0 20.2 1021 91 21 0.00 594 576

TUE 12Z 31-MAY 23.1 20.0 1021 79 21 0.00 594 576

TUE 18Z 31-MAY 31.8 19.8 1019 51 24 0.00 594 577

WED 00Z 01-JUN 25.9 20.5 1018 83 21 0.00 593 578

WED 06Z 01-JUN 21.4 20.5 1017 88 23 0.00 591 577

WED 12Z 01-JUN 25.1 18.6 1017 76 21 0.00 589 575 ....Having a D6 MOS product be 32C is pretty much not seen. Hmm.

is that truly a MOS product or is it the actual raw output?

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I think that was the big western mass severe. If it was, that had some vestiges of an EML.

Yes, it was actually - in fact, SPC put out a statement warning Middlsex Co about that MESO coming down from central NH... They mentioned pretty specifically that there was some localized SRH that was enhanced by a decaying sea-breeze boundary, and combined with high heat -related elevated cape could produce supercells through the evening. That cell was really something dude... I had overlapping lightning flashes with nickle hail for like 5 minutes with wind blowing from different directions. Then, again, as the storm moved away the full moon popped out over the top of the anvil and you could still see continuous lighting for the next half hour as that cell ripped toward NE CT. I think it died - rightfully so - just before getting to Kevina's house though.

There was cluster of severe in VT that organized into an MCS and that went through western zones with force.

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