Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 http://www.wundergro...sterfield%2C+MA Mid 80's Mon. and Tues. Upper 80's Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 http://www.wundergro...sterfield%2C+MA Mid 80's Mon. and Tues. Upper 80's Wed. I guess, despite your keen interest in the forecast high temps for Chesterfield and surrounding environs, you failed to note that yesterday the forecast high here for Mon/Tues was 87-88. As you point out, proving my point, BOX has now rolled those highs back . Really Scoob, it's futile for you. We will almost always be cooler than the valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It was awesome to be outside for an entire day for once yesterday. Even played some whiffle ball...I slipped and fell into a stream and I cut my right eye diving for the ball and landing on cement. Ate some awesome food...I also did a 12-pack and a 40...but man, after playing whiffle ball yesterday I feel like I'm 100...not used to that activity anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 So this inferno holiday weekend has actually turned out to be rather mild. 2 days in the 70's and one day in the low 80's. Pretty mundane. Oh,BTW, nice high of 69 on Friday. Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Memorial Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 84. West wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 72. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 69. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I guess, despite your keen interest in the forecast high temps for Chesterfield and surrounding environs, you failed to note that yesterday the forecast high here for Mon/Tues was 87-88. As you point out, proving my point, BOX has now rolled those highs back . Really Scoob, it's futile for you. We will almost always be cooler than the valley floor. Not disputing that at all. Just pointing out that the difference may not be all that great in certain situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Attempted to do some work outside. Fail, the flies are just so damn thick you getthem in your eyes, ears, nose, mouth. Just plain awful. 69/66. Until the OVC burns off it looks like yard work will have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Is Ray hibernating until winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Just 3 weeks until the sun angle begins it's decension. Is Ray hibernating until winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It really is interesting watching the NAM pull these solutions out that hone in on almost less than meso-scale reasons (if a reason can be seen at all!) in preventing the higher magnitude heat from getting into SNE. On the 00z run it shows the weakest vestige of a front at 60 hours, draped from off-shore east of Boston to ALB NY, which really synoptically has almost no physics for having a presence considering that latitude is also under the 588dm thermal ridge contour, and there are 0 kinematics for supporting a sfc boundary at that time given to intense homogenized heating, divergence at the sfc and generalized DVM assocated with the rising heights. I am really curious why it is persisting with these cold profiled solutions at least excuse imaginable. Yesterday's incursion of BD and relatively intense llv cooling bust sits pretty badly for the last couple NAM cycles in terms of having any confidence in the details heading into this warm departure. 06z tried to back off on the aggressiveness of sustaining a boundary through the area with 0 physics available for doing so (you keying in on my sarcasm yet?) - seriously, this is just not acceptable - that definitely needs to be evaluated by the modelers imo - I wouldn't say so, but the difference here is 84 and tolerable DPs vs close to excessive heat criteria, an impact difference. Speaking of which, it seems this is not really catching on at AFDs. I am also curious why our point and click 'casts out here in Middlesex CO have 84F for a high on Tuesday. That's bordering on obtuse - I was looking over the mean (not including the NAM) thermal profiles from the various guidance; I'd say +19C at 875mb is a fair enough outlook on a WSW well mixed air at 576dm thickness... We were 90-93F two days ago on a SW moderately well mix regime and 17C at 850 - and I doubt we really got the adiabat that high in the BL that day. This recent behavior balanced with common sense, synoptic appeal, and real actual analytic Met argues for about 94, with an option for higher, and I say that with high confidence, too. Monday is no picnic, and Wednesday may actually the hottest due to advancing cool fropa compressing the gradient and enhancing heat transport out ahead of the boundary. By the way, the convection associated with that mid week cool down has disappointment written all over it. Just purely from an experience of our climate perspective on NW flow frontal passages that come in over the top of ridges... When you have a broiling air mass in place and heights collapse aloft, there tends to be the production of a strong pre-frontal trough. This feature tends to rob DP and advects it seaward, and then the cold front comes through unattended by much fan fair. The convection actually ends up being more interesting in said trough, but because the trough has only marginally good jet cross-sections for being too far ahead of the main S/W(s), your good for muted intensity and an unrealized watch box for a return. Not absolute, no - Our best severe tends to come from other set ups... I'd take a self-propagating MCS on that NW flow over anything associated with a cfropa any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It really is interesting watching the NAM pull these solutions out that hone in on almost less than meso-scale reasons (if a reason can be seen at all!) in preventing the higher magnitude heat from getting into SNE. On the 00z run it shows the weakest vestige of a front at 60 hours, draped from off-shore east of Boston to ALB NY, which really synoptically has almost no physics for having a presence considering that latitude is also under the 588dm thermal ridge contour, and there are 0 kinematics for supporting a sfc boundary at that time given to intense homogenized heating, divergence at the sfc and generalized DVM assocated with the rising heights. I am really curious why it is persisting with these cold profiled solutions at least excuse imaginable. Yesterday's incursion of BD and relatively intense llv cooling bust sits pretty badly for the last couple NAM cycles in terms of having any confidence in the details heading into this warm departure. 06z tried to back off on the aggressiveness of sustaining a boundary through the area with 0 physics available for doing so (you keying in on my sarcasm yet?) - seriously, this is just not acceptable - that definitely needs to be evaluated by the modelers imo - I wouldn't say so, but the difference here is 84 and tolerable DPs vs close to excessive heat criteria, an impact difference. Speaking of which, it seems this is not really catching on at AFDs. I am also curious why our point and click 'casts out here in Middlesex CO have 84F for a high on Tuesday. That's bordering on obtuse - I was looking over the mean (not including the NAM) thermal profiles from the various guidance; I'd say +19C at 875mb is a fair enough outlook on a WSW well mixed air at 576dm thickness... We were 90-93F two days ago on a SW moderately well mix regime and 17C at 850 - and I doubt we really got the adiabat that high in the BL that day. This recent behavior balanced with common sense, synoptic appeal, and real actual analytic Met argues for about 94, with an option for higher, and I say that with high confidence, too. Monday is no picnic, and Wednesday may actually the hottest due to advancing cool fropa compressing the gradient and enhancing heat transport out ahead of the boundary. By the way, the convection associated with that mid week cool down has disappointment written all over it. Just purely from an experience of our climate perspective on NW flow frontal passages that come in over the top of ridges... When you have a broiling air mass in place and heights collapse aloft, there tends to be the production of a strong pre-frontal trough. This feature tends to rob DP and advects it seaward, and then the cold front comes through unattended by much fan fair. The convection actually ends up being more interesting in said trough, but because the trough has only marginally good jet cross-sections for being too far ahead of the main S/W(s), your good for muted intensity and an unrealized watch box for a return. Not absolute, no - Our best severe tends to come from other set ups... I'd take a self-propagating MCS on that NW flow over anything associated with a cfropa any day. Tuesday might be a day where we go from ne winds to se as WAA takes over and areas inside of 495 or so stay muted in the 80s. NAM does seem to have a little bit of a cold bias, but it did ok with the mass fields yesterday. If you take those into account, you'll probably have a good forecast. Tomorrow and Tuesday could be a steamer, provided convective debris doesn't take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I see what the NAM is up to - fascinating. Could happen but I have less confidence it will - Currently sat/rad/grond truth, shows an MCS managing to over-come the typical MCS destructive impact of sun-up and insolation altering the soundings ... moving through the southern Lakes region. The NAM actually initialized this pig with about a 30 unit vortmax that is no bigger than the urban sprawl in terms of spatial coverage, of Chicago. What's interesting is that it drills this constructing-S/W east, and then uses it to create this internal synoptic regime relative to the big picture. In otherwords, convective feedback. It is using that to create the kinematics necessary for frontal genesis' in the region. The vort max associated with the MCS has its own backside NVA - there you go. This kind of reminds me of Mike Ekster's concern, which I think is a very valid one: The NAM is too much of a good thing, because it is not quite good enough to get out of it's own way - so to speak. It's good enough to detect oddities/perturbations, but not good enough to handle them correctly, because we simply don't sample the atmosphere accurately enough at finite scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Tuesday might be a day where we go from ne winds to se as WAA takes over and areas inside of 495 or so stay muted in the 80s. NAM does seem to have a little bit of a cold bias, but it did ok with the mass fields yesterday. If you take those into account, you'll probably have a good forecast. Tomorrow and Tuesday could be a steamer, provided convective debris doesn't take over. I don't think it handled the mass fields yesterday that well - just my opinion by it appeared to try and lock almost the entire SNE area in 60s not 24 hours prior. That was laughable and it was correct to ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I don't think it handled the mass fields yesterday that well - just my opinion by it appeared to try and lock almost the entire SNE area in 60s not 24 hours prior. That was laughable and it was correct to ignore that. I think 48 hrs before, yeah it went nuts and we all agreed it was bogus. I think the day before it was still a little aggressive, but it did back off. I guess what I mean is that it was the only model to hint at this. I know the euro did, but I think it backed off too. I know folks in ne mass probably were a little disappointed yesterday based on some local forecasts. That's why I was saying if you remove the crack head bias of the NAM...you at least get the sense of what might happen as far as mesoscale features like a BD front or seabreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wicked scorchah tomorrow. 12z MET is 90F for CON-MHT-ASH and the 6z MAV is 92-93-94F respectively. Maybe ASH can pull off an 80F daily mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Here's the hi res sat imagery of the MCS ripping through IA... Notice the small cluster of TCU/CB development along the inflow jet axis... Pretty cool stuff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think 48 hrs before, yeah it went nuts and we all agreed it was bogus. I think the day before it was still a little aggressive, but it did back off. I guess what I mean is that it was the only model to hint at this. I know the euro did, but I think it backed off too. I know folks in ne mass probably were a little disappointed yesterday based on some local forecasts. That's why I was saying if you remove the crack head bias of the NAM...you at least get the sense of what might happen as far as mesoscale features like a BD front or seabreeze. Haha - Harvey and I used to say that if you operate within the limitations of a given model than the issues with the model become less important. In other words, know when to use what tool and for what - You wouldn't use a hammer to turn a screw. That said, ...and again, I think the NAM is almost too much of a good thing with these mesoscale feedbacks. It's like being in a dark room with skunk - it can smell it, but it can't really see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think 48 hrs before, yeah it went nuts and we all agreed it was bogus. I think the day before it was still a little aggressive, but it did back off. I guess what I mean is that it was the only model to hint at this. I know the euro did, but I think it backed off too. I know folks in ne mass probably were a little disappointed yesterday based on some local forecasts. That's why I was saying if you remove the crack head bias of the NAM...you at least get the sense of what might happen as far as mesoscale features like a BD front or seabreeze. Yeah I think it did a pretty good job overall...unfortunately. It does seem to have a cold bias on those dry backdoors, but when we get the rain/drizzle along with it it can nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Haha - Harvey and I used to say that if you operate within the limitations of a given model than the issues with the model become less important. In other words, know when to use what tool and for what - You wouldn't use a hammer to turn a screw. That said, ...and again, I think the NAM is almost too much of a good thing with these mesoscale feedbacks. It's like being in a dark room with skunk - it can smell it, but it can't really see it. Mesoscale models can do strange things with such high resolution. It has the ability to take one peace of false data or misinterpretation and really screw up the results as you go out into the future. But like you said..it can be a great tool if you know when to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Maybe 92 or 93 tomorrow at BDL..I'd go higher than MAV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 low clouds and fog have burned off over the last hour or so sunny 75/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Can we get some storms before Wednesday is the question. Shame to waste such a hot humid pattern with no storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Summer's here. Most years it comes in just about when it did but some notable stinkers keep us 50s and foggy to near the solstice. Not this year. Full on summer now through August. Breaks in the heat will bring 70s, now, dry 80 in a month. Canada is getting very warm from this point forth so not much of a cool air source outside of the ocean and even the SST will mitigate that by late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sunny 75 seabreeze has kicked in, another 10. Beach time...........have a great day folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Maybe that MCS over Chicago can provide some fun for someone in the northeast late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Summer's here. Most years it comes in just about when it did but some notable stinkers keep us 50s and foggy to near the solstice. Not this year. Full on summer now through August. Breaks in the heat will bring 70s, now, dry 80 in a month. Canada is getting very warm from this point forth so not much of a cool air source outside of the ocean and even the SST will mitigate that by late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 TP stuck on thighs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Your PP stuck btwn my thighs?? I certainly hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I certainly hope not LOL, well things should be much better after Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 LOL, well things should be much better after Wednesday. I was thinking more Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I was thinking more Friday. Well humidity should be lower. It still might be rather mild, especially if GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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