usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the 500 wave se of new england is stronger this run and isn't allowing for any amplification... the detail differences are rather small overall i think Yep, that's certainly a good part of the problem but the clipper itself starts off weaker before getting close to the eastern trof so it's sort of a double whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Both are mets from the Central forum Look at the low tracks at the upper/mid levels, its having issues. Precip does not match the upper/mid levels. yep, this model is broken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yep, that's certainly a good part of the problem but the clipper itself starts off weaker before getting close to the eastern trof so it's sort of a double whammy. These all seem like details the NAM is going to have trouble with in this range. It has not been exactly steady. 18z was about as good as you get with a clipper in these parts... It waffling off is not a huge shock. It still looks like there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems like everything just started out weaker to begin with in the plains. A less amplified s/w will have less ridging in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 might work out better if it slows down some that 72 hr map looks spicy if it had some room to grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 nc/va line looks like the bullseye this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Its still has potential---12z showed this as well, between 78 and 84 hours, now between 66 and 72 a little jet streak develops-- (showing the 72 hour map--don't be lazy, check out the 66 hour 300 mb map) It may only be a 50 mile wide band, but someone's going to get a nice little clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems like the mets in the Central forum really don't like the NAM 2 things, one its grossly overdoing the thing out in the ocean, and the bigger one with regards to the clipper itself, look at 700 where it has the Omegas from 54 on just doesn't make sense. Both things have gigantic implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 probably the worst model run since 2005 I was thinking the same thing while enjoying the smell of this glue I have near my nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Both the NAO and the Pacific look better for the midweek "threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 might work out better if it slows down some that 72 hr map looks spicy if it had some room to grow sref had things a bit more amped at the very end, i wonder if it will try to climb at all still. i'd still rather have the precip south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sref had things a bit more amped at the very end, i wonder if it will try to climb at all still. i'd still rather have the precip south at this point. Pretty sure it is a rule that clippers always come north at the last minute. I doubt this will end up fringing RIC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sw va mtns gets nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sref had things a bit more amped at the very end, i wonder if it will try to climb at all still. i'd still rather have the precip south at this point. I don't buy a clipper on Dec 5 showing Martinsville, VA as the bulls eye in any year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 1/2" qpf nc va border hr. 84 nothing north of fredricksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 if sref is a guide and it sometimes is for sure (though im not sure how valuable it is at this range), the new nam may be a bit north with it's heaviest precip shield. sref looks better in this area than the earlier run. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Pretty sure it is a rule that clippers always come north at the last minute. I doubt this will end up fringing RIC... most things do come north.. we need some corrections here but it's the nam at longer range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 1/2" qpf nc va border hr. 84 nothing north of fredricksburg South trend is good for us-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 good call we want the SREF on our side at this point, which is an average, vs. the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Pretty sure it is a rule that clippers always come north at the last minute. I doubt this will end up fringing RIC... Me too. If a clipper misses me to the south, I'll be surprised. Edit: I'm not sure it is further south, just looks weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 this is sooooo contrary to climo, its really hard to believe, but congrats to those down south if it happens http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 good call guessing model output by it's cousin is not an accurate science... op nam may be an outlier in the sref suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If this thing goes further south, I wonder about the Miller B possibility off SC. Looks like it gathers strength coming over the mountains. I'll watch and let you guys know what I come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 most things do come north.. we need some corrections here but it's the nam at longer range.. I wouldn't be overly concerned by the NAM solution yet if I was there. If all the other guidance comes in like that, then I would be concerned. NAM can sometimes catch a trend and then totally do a 180 on one run in that time range. Who knows what its doing this time, but I wouldn't put too much weight into it at 10pm. The trend you are looking for is the same we're looking for here...but for a different reason...more amplified will help it retrograde back W after it goes out to sea initially. I mentioned in the NE subforum that the vortmax ESE of New England went totally nuts on the NAM...it could be one of those things its obsessing over that really isn't in tune with reality. Sometimes the downside of a very high resolution model like the NAM. But again, it could be right...we'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 guessing model output by it's cousin is not an accurate science... op nam may be an outlier in the sref suite Seems like I remember people posting those individual members last year. Is there a site where that is available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems like I remember people posting those individual members last year. Is there a site where that is available? PSU Ewall http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallsref.html The individual members aren't updated yet on ewall, but they should be shortly... Edit: Actually they are updated, thought they didn't update until ~1030 on the site, but I guess not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 PSU Ewall http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallsref.html The individual members aren't updated yet on ewall, but they should be shortly... Edit: Actually they are updated, thought they didn't update until ~1030 on the site, but I guess not... Thanks. I don't have a trained eye like Phin likes ( ) , but my untrained eye sees some of those members with a much more amplified look to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 May be a bit early, but the GFS so far is looking less impressive than 18z Yea, at 54 its clearly less amplified. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Maybe the somewhat increased moisture coming into CA at 54 hours can catch up to the clipper. May be a bit early, but the GFS so far is looking less impressive than 18z Yea, at 54 its clearly less amplified. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hr. 72 has the retrograding low in Maine appearing to be much more robust than 18z. Our clipper is starting to look overwelmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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