yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 21z SREFs are on the way out.. and they can sometimes point in the direction that the 00z NAM might go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 just a reminder to try to put side commentary in this thread: http://www.americanw...-banter-thread/ we need to really try to keep these model threads tight and on topic especially when there is a threat also even tho yoda started with two maps and nothing else, we all know where to get the maps... or should. google: ncep models. plz do either add to the convo or ask a few questions if needed rather than post every image you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 just a reminder to try to put side commentary in this thread: http://www.americanw...-banter-thread/ we need to really try to keep these model threads tight and on topic especially when there is a threat also even tho yoda started with two maps and nothing else, we all know where to get the maps... or should. google: ncep models. plz do either add to the convo or ask a few questions if needed rather than post every image you see. Can you please explain that crazy map with all of the yellow swirls and little x's to me again? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 SREFs look like they drop .2 QPF once you move south of DCA on the 24 hr map at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Can you please explain that crazy map with all of the yellow swirls and little x's to me again? Thanks. You want the swirls to pass south of your backyard in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That Midlothian dude said the NWS in Wisconsin is calling for 4-7 up there on Saturday...that path looks quite a bit South to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 if sref is a guide and it sometimes is for sure (though im not sure how valuable it is at this range), the new nam may be a bit north with it's heaviest precip shield. sref looks better in this area than the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 if sref is a guide and it sometimes is for sure (though im not sure how valuable it is at this range), the new nam may be a bit north with it's heaviest precip shield. sref looks better in this area than the earlier run. Seems the QPF is a little better. Also noted the dip in the 500 is a good bit sharper in the new run. Am I right and isn't this good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems the QPF is a little better. Also noted the dip in the 500 is a good bit sharper in the new run. Am I right and isn't this good for us. Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems the QPF is a little better. Also noted the dip in the 500 is a good bit sharper in the new run. Am I right and isn't this good for us. yeah, a bit it seems.. the 500 s/w does seem to pass a bit further south than the last run though so i dunno what that means... or why if that's the case it would appear there is more moisture here. it is a bit more amplified at the end however. i see the sref as a secondary tool unless you're within 24 hours and there are big discrepencies among various models or something. but it could still give a hint at what the nam will look like i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM looks a hair less amped maybe. (Looking at 42) Tombo agrees with me at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hour 48 is a good deal less amplified for sure. Not so sure this is going to be a good run for us folks. Weenie suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wow... hr 48 00z and hr 54 18z big difference in amplification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hour 48 is a good deal less amplified for sure. Not so sure this is going to be a good run for us folks. Weenie suicide watch. too early still.. give it a few more panels before jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wow... hr 48 00z and hr 54 18z big difference in amplification... Hey some runs just are off, and we can still use our poor sampling excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 yea...this is horrible. No way the NAM was going to hold up being such an outlier. 1-3 flakes are a good bet on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wow... hr 48 00z and hr 54 18z big difference in amplification... Wes did say that it'll be a good 30 hours (24 hours now) until the S/W is in better data sampling. But these are not good trends for snow lovers in these parts. Perhaps the GFS will fly in to save us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wes did say that it'll be a good 30 hours (24 hours now) until the S/W is in better data sampling. But these are not good trends for snow lovers in these parts. Perhaps the GFS will fly in to save us? Trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the 00z NAM is always dry and weak. Wait till 6z for a rebound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Trends? Poor word choice lol. *This development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 too early still.. give it a few more panels before jumping Still does not look all that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 just comparing the sim/radar with 18z same time, looks a little slower in coming east as precip field is further west by 100-200 miles, so let's see what happens if slower is all it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ric might be on the northern fringe this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 UGLY. GFS surrender. Only good thing about this run is that the PAC ridge is stronger which sets the second storm up if that's still considered a legit. threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Midlo is right, it's going to be farther south as well. Look at how the vortex over the northeast is centered a little farther to the west than on the earlier progs. There is less room for the system to back the flow. Taht will make it harder to get decent precip into the dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 5H map is a mess in the Atlantic what a traffic jam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the 500 wave se of new england is stronger this run and isn't allowing for any amplification... the detail differences are rather small overall i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Could the clipper being less amplified cause the Pac ridge to be moreso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 OK, I like the suppression --gives me more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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